The Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators
Bloomberg Financial, Band 151 3. Aufl.
A handy reference to understanding key economic indicators and acting on them New economic data are reported virtually every trading day. Investors, big and small, have to understand how these reports influence their investments, portfolios, and future sources of income. The third edition of The Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators examines the most important economic statistics currently used on Wall Street. In a straightforward and accessible style, it tells you exactly what these reports measure and what they really mean. Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this reliable resource sheds some much-needed light on theses numbers and data releases and shows you what to look for and how to react to various economic indicators. Covers everything from gross domestic product and employment to consumer confidence and spending Author Richard Yamarone shares his experience as a former trader, academic, and current Wall Street economist Illustrated with instructive graphs and charts that will put you ahead of market curves Engaging and informative, this book will put you in a better position to make more informed investment decisions, based of some of today's most influential economic indicators.
Acknowledgments ix Introduction 1 CHAPTER 1 Gross Domestic Product 11 CHAPTER 2 Indexes of Leading, Lagging, and Coincident Indicators 47 CHAPTER 3 The Employment Situation 65 CHAPTER 4 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 83 CHAPTER 5 Institute for Supply Management Indexes 101 CHAPTER 6 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 123 CHAPTER 7 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales 139 CHAPTER 8 New Residential Construction 151 CHAPTER 9 Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Indexes 167 CHAPTER 10 Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services 183 CHAPTER 11 Personal Income and Outlays 199 CHAPTER 12 Consumer and Producer Price Indexes 219 CHAPTER 13 The Fixed-Income Market 235 CHAPTER 14 Commodities 259 About the Author 285 Index 287
RICHARD YAMARONE is a Bloomberg Senior Economist with more than two decades of experience on monetary and fiscal policy, economic indicators, fixed income, commodities, and general macroeconomic conditions. He authors and oversees the Bloomberg BRIEF: Economics, a daily newsletter that features analysis, data, and news on the forces shaping the global economy. Yamarone is also the creator of the Bloomberg Orange Book, a compilation of macroeconomic anecdotes gleaned from comments that CEOs and CFOs made on quarterly earnings conference calls. He is a member of the National Association for Business Economists, the American Economic Association, the New York State Economics Association, and the Money Marketeers of New York University. Yamarone has won numerous accolades for his work, including being featured as one of the top ten economists in the U.S. by USA Today in 2007 and was named "Nostradamus of the Financial Industry" by Bank Advisor in 2008 for his prediction of the financial crises.
You don't need to manage millions or billions of dollars to use economic indicators to plan an investment strategy and build your portfolio. Furthermore, you don't need a degree in economics or mathematics to interpret this information. Today, you can get much of the same information that Wall Street professionals use in their analyses from various online or print sources as well as numerous business programs. Nobody understands this better than author Richard Yamarone, a Bloomberg Senior Economist with over twenty-five years of experience working on Wall Street. And now, in the Third Edition of The Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators, he shares his extensive insights on this topic with you. Filled with new examples and commentary on the recent financial crisis, this reliable guide focuses on a dozen essential economic indicators—and several others from the fixed income and commodity markets—that are among the most important of any analyst's or economist's tools. Each chapter corresponds to an indicator, beginning with the most comprehensive—GDP and indices of leading, lagging, and coincident indicators—and continuing with those tied to particular aspects or segments of the overall economy, such as consumer prices, manufacturing, housing, and retail sales. To help you gain a firm understanding of the indicators addressed, every chapter follows the same basic setup: an introduction sketching out the major attributes of the indicator and its effect on the markets; a discussion of its origins and development; a description of how the relevant data are obtained, analyzed, and presented; and an explanation of how to incorporate these data into your investment endeavors. The last section of every chapter also contains at least one "Trick from the Trenches" that will allow you to develop a clearer picture of business activity. Engaging and informative, the Third Edition of The Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators will help you gain a practical command of economic indicators and their meaning for investment. Written for both professional and individual investors, it will put you in a better position to form your own opinions about the possible direction of the economy and markets as well as how to make the most informed investment decisions based on those opinions.
Praise for The Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators, Third Edition "Rich's Trader's Guide identifies the essential economic indicators needed to completely understand the economy's underlying fundamentals. This book bridges the gap between what is taught in college texts and read in the business press. Rich has one of the smartest economic minds and is genuinely one of the nicest guys in the world. Really. He told me to write that." —Arthur B. Laffer, former advisor to President Reagan and coauthor of Return to Prosperity: How America Can Regain Its Economic Superpower Status "Rich Yamarone is a walking human database of trading data. He looks at everything but, more importantly, he knows what is important and what isn't. And he looks in places most economists never think about. The Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators is a resource you want to read again and again and then keep near your desk to refer to. It's that good!" —John Mauldin, President, Millenium Wave Securities "Thinking before speaking is always good advice. For traders, understanding economic indicators before executing the trade is essential, and Richard's work sets understanding in its primary place. Richard covers many varied indicators and reflects upon their quirks as well as their signals for traders. This is a must-read for intelligent traders." —John E. Silvia, Chief Economist, Wells Fargo "Markets respond instantaneously to economic news. Making quick decisions requires a solid understanding of the past performance of, and the methodologies used to produce, economic indicator statistics. Yamarone's latest gets 'into the weeds' and provides the understanding needed to properly interpret the implications for financial markets of changes in economic indicators. An easy and profitable read." —William Dunkelberg, Chief Economist, National Federation of Independent Business; Economic Strategist, Boenning & Scattergood
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