The Commercial Real Estate TsunamiA Survival Guide for Lenders, Owners, Buyers, and Brokers
Wiley Finance, Band 592 1. Aufl.
An in-depth look at why a commercial real estate collapse is inevitable, and how to survive it The Commercial Real Estate Tsunami is the first book to address the phenomenon of the pending wave of commercial debt maturities coming due in the next five years, and the impact those maturities will have on the commercial real estate markets when combined with the historic economic crisis the world is experiencing at this time. Drawing on the knowledge of recognized experts in the commercial real estate industry and financial markets, as well as lessons learned from the commercial real estate downturns of the 1980s and 1990s, author Tony Wood fills a void in our understanding of the causes of the crisis and what to expect in the future. Sends a warning to the commercial real estate industry, and offers concrete solutions to mitigate the risks and hazards that lie ahead Contains the insights of a group of experts from various sectors of the commercial real estate industry Helps market participants, including investors, developers, lenders, and brokers, gain a vitally needed perspective on where we might be going next and how we will get there Heeding the advice and guidance of the contributors in this book will benefit anyone navigating these turbulent waters and help lead them to higher ground.
Foreword (Matthew Anderson, Foresight Analytics, LLC). Introduction: A Tsunami Warning: Between Fear and Desperation. Acknowledgments. Part I Phases of the Tsunami. Chapter 1 Phase One: Initiation (2005–2007). Observing a Wave of Crisis. A View from Higher Ground – Charles A. “Mac” McClure, President CCIM Institute. Chapter 2 Phase Two: Amplification (2007–2008). Setting the Stage for Drawdown. Learning to Stay Afloat - Cynthia Shelton, 2009 President of the Florida. Association of Realtors. PART II Showing up on Radar. Chapter 3 Phase Three: Drawdown (2009). Watching the Water Recede. Major Metro Market Data Surveys from CoStar Realty Information, Inc. Chapter 4 Phase Four: The Run-Up (2010–2013). Recognizing the Potential Havoc in the Market. Excerpts from Congressional Testimony. Chapter 5 Bailing Out a Sea of Debt—Sam Chandan PhD FRICS. Commercial Real Estate Mortgage Markets and Policy Interventions. The CMBS Market. The Case of Peter Cooper Village and Stuyvesant Town. Bank Lending. Agency Financing. The Next Year. Part III Mitigation of Risks and Hazards: Survival Guide For Lenders, Owners, Buyers, & Commercial Real Estate Brokers. Chapter 6 Lenders Prepare for Impact. When the Wave Hits. Survival Skills—Eric Von Berg, Newmark Realty Capital, Inc. Motivations of the Special Servicer. Commercial Loan Workouts from the Lender's Perspective - Maura O'Connor, Seyfarth Shaw LLP. Chapter 7 Owners and Borrowers Learn to Swim with the Sharks. Pride of Ownership and Property Management Responsibilities. Loan Workouts and Loan Modifications. Commercial Loan Workouts from the Borrower's Perspective - Maura O'Connor, Seyfarth Shaw LLP. Chapter 8 Buyers Beware of Hidden Debris. Buyers in the Tsunami Marketplace. Be a Smart Buyer—Do Your Homework First. Cash is King. Hair on the Deal—The Importance of Due Diligence. Chapter 9 Commercial Real Estate Brokers Charting a New Course in a Paradigm Shift Marketplace. Perspective and Strategy for Brokerage Firms and Brokers: A Coach’s View - Tom Loeswick, Shirlaws. The First Step. Summary. Chapter 10 How to Ride a Tsunami Wave with Expertise. Chapter 11 A Life Preserver for Your Family Therapeutic Strategies for Family Survival in a Tough Economy - Donna Wood, MA, MFT. Open the Lines of Communication. Work as a Team. Be Truthful about Finances. Shift your Perspective. Open Yourself to the Idea of Change. Define Success in the Context of Life. Nurture the Whole Person. Floatation Devices. Corporate Assistance. Conclusion From Despondency to Optimism. Resources. About the Author. Contributors. Index.
Tony Wood is an award-winning veteran of the commercial real estate industry. With over thirty years' experience, and a successful track record as a commercial real estate broker and consultant, Wood has worked with all types of commercial property with a wide range of client profiles. His resume includes the valuation, leasing, sales, and management of office, retail, industrial, and residential income properties throughout the Western United States. Wood has been retained as a consultant to law and accounting firms and also represents lending institutions in the evaluation and disposition of their special assets and commercial REOs. He is an active leader in the commercial real estate industry and is an invited guest speaker and contributor to numerous media outlets. Wood lives in Northern California with his wife, Donna, and their three children.
The more than $1 trillion of commercial real estate loan maturities between 2010 through 2013, combined with the commercial real estate markets being battered in recent years, will result in conditions the marketplace has never seen before. The collapse of our economy late in 2008, and the resulting fall of commercial real estate values, has left us with the majority of commercial real estate loans maturing in the next few years-and great challenges to refinance them. While "tsunami" may seem like a rather dramatic term to use for the title of this book, the analogy is precise: a tsunami is an event that is typically unseen and unexpected until it's too late, then hits with such ferocity that anyone caught in its path has little chance of survival. The Commercial Real Estate Tsunami addresses the issues at hand and what is likely ahead. Never before has such a group of experts from varied sectors of the commercial real estate industry come together to provide insights and solutions for the anticipated wave of commercial real estate debt maturities, the resulting foreclosures, loss of value, and the battered commercial real estate marketplace. Author Tony Wood-himself a veteran of the commercial real estate industry with over thirty years' experience-draws on the expertise of many other recognized industry leaders to explain what actions you can take to protect yourself and your company against the hazards that the marketplace now faces. The author and his contributors describe each phase of this "tsunami," from its initiation in 2005-2007 to its potential run-up in 2010-2013-which will create an historic level of havoc and destruction throughout the markets-and offer up strategies to survive the ensuing damage. In the wake of this damage to property values and businesses everywhere are the individuals and families struggling to survive these conditions. Also included here are steps you can take to keep your family together through tough times. The final result of the conditions outlined in this book will be revealed over the coming months and years. Heeding the advice and guidance of the contributors in this book will benefit anyone navigating these turbulent waters and help lead them to higher ground.
Praise for The Commercial Real Estate Tsunami "A clear and concise analysis of the current commercial real estate crisis." -Bill Hoffman, CEO, Trigild Incorporated "The book offers a wealth of critical views, engaging reportage, and hard-hitting data from leading professionals at the front lines. [Wood includes] timely advice, perspectives, and pragmatic techniques for coping with and capitalizing on this massive debt dislocation." -David J. Lynn, PhD, Managing Director, ING Clarion Partners "The Commercial Real Estate Tsunami should have a lasting place on any commercial real estate professional's bookshelf." -Michael Gottlieb, Editor, California Real Estate Journal "Those directly engaged in commercial property markets on any level will find many practical suggestions in this book to cope with these dire future events." -Anthony Downs, Senior Fellow, Metropolitan Policy Department, Brookings Institution, author of Real Estate and the Financial Crisis "What makes this book stand out is that it is more than just a warning of a challenging market, but an invaluable road map that offers specific strategies to guide brokers, clients, and others through this crisis." -Doug Frye, President and CEO, Colliers International An in-depth look at why a commercial real estate collapse is inevitable-and how to survive it The Commercial Real Estate Tsunami is the first book to address the phenomenon of the pending wave of commercial debt maturities coming in the next five years, and the impact those maturities will have on the commercial real estate markets when combined with the historic economic crisis the world is experiencing at this time. Drawing on the knowledge of recognized experts in the commercial real estate industry and financial markets, this vital guide not only explores the causes of this crisis, but offers concrete solutions and ways to mitigate the hazards that lie ahead.
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