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Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics


Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics

A feedback systems approach
2. Aufl.

von: John D. W. Morecroft

46,99 €

Verlag: Wiley
Format: PDF
Veröffentl.: 27.05.2015
ISBN/EAN: 9781118994818
Sprache: englisch
Anzahl Seiten: 512

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Beschreibungen

<p><b>Insightful modelling of dynamic systems for better business strategy</b></p> <p>The business environment is constantly changing and organisations need the ability to rehearse alternative futures.  By mimicking the interlocking operations of firms and industries, modelling serves as a ‘dry run’ for testing ideas, anticipating consequences, avoiding strategic pitfalls and improving future performance.</p> <p><i>Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics </i>is an essential guide to credible models; helping you to understand modelling as a creative process for distilling and communicating those factors that drive business success and sustainability. Written by an internationally regarded authority, the book covers all stages of model building, from conceptual to analytical. The book demonstrates a range of in-depth practical examples that vividly illustrate important or puzzling dynamics in firm operations, strategy, public policy, and everyday life. </p> <p>This updated new edition also offers a rich Learners' website with models, articles and videos, as well as a separate Instructors' website resource, with lecture slides and other course materials (see Related Websites/Extra section below). Together the book and websites deliver a powerful package of blended learning materials that:</p> <ul> <li>Introduce the system dynamics approach of modelling strategic problems in business and society</li> <li>Include industry examples and public sector applications with interactive simulators and contemporary visual modelling software</li> <li>Provide the latest state-of-the-art thinking, concepts and techniques for systems modelling</li> </ul> <p>The comprehensive Learners' website features models, microworlds, journal articles and videos. Easy-to-use simulators enable readers to experience dynamic complexity in business and society.  Like would-be CEOs, readers can re-design operations and then re-simulate in the quest for well-coordinated strategy and better performance. The simulators include a baffling hotel shower, a start-up low-cost airline, an international radio broadcaster, a diversifying tyre maker, commercial fisheries and the global oil industry.</p> <p><br /><br />"Much more than an introduction, John Morecroft’s <i>Strategic</i> <i>Modelling</i> <i>and</i> <i>Business</i> <i>Dynamics</i> uses interactive ‘mini-simulators and microworlds’ to create an engaging and effective learning environment in which readers, whatever their background, can develop their intuition about complex dynamic systems."</p> <p><b>John</b> <b>Sterman,</b> <b>Jay</b> <b>W.</b> <b>Forrester</b> <b>Professor</b> <b>of</b> <b>Management,</b> <b>MIT</b> <b>Sloan</b> <b>School</b> <b>of</b> <b>Management</b></p> <p>"Illustrated by examples from everyday life, business and policy, John Morecroft expertly demonstrates how systems thinking aided by system dynamics can improve our understanding of the world around us." </p> <p><b>Stewart Robinson, </b><b>Associate Dean Research, President of the Operational Research Society, Professor of Management Science, School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University</b></p>
<p>About the Author xvii</p> <p>Foreword by Peter Checkland xix</p> <p>Preface to the Second Edition xxi</p> <p>Preface from the First Edition xxv</p> <p>How to Use This Book xxxv</p> <p><b>Chapter 1 The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling 1</b></p> <p>Introduction 1</p> <p>A New Approach to Modelling 5</p> <p>The Puzzling Dynamics of International Fisheries 7</p> <p>Model of a Natural Fishery 10</p> <p>Simulated Dynamics of a Natural Fishery 12</p> <p>Operating a Simple Harvested Fishery 13</p> <p>Harvesting in Bonavista, Newfoundland – A Thought Experiment 15</p> <p>A Start on Analysing Dynamics and Performance Through Time 17</p> <p>Saving Bonavista – Using Simulation to Devise a Sustainable Fishery 20</p> <p>Dynamic Complexity and Performance Through Time 20</p> <p>Cunning Fish – A Scenario with Reduced Dynamic Complexity 23</p> <p>Preview of the Book and Topics Covered 25</p> <p>Appendix – Archive Materials from World Dynamics 27</p> <p>References 28</p> <p><b>Chapter 2 Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking 31</b></p> <p>Ways of Interpreting Situations in Business and Society 31</p> <p>Event-oriented Thinking 32</p> <p>Feedback Systems Thinking – An Illustration 34</p> <p>A Shift of Mind 37</p> <p>The Invisibility of Feedback 38</p> <p>A Start on Causal Loop Diagrams 39</p> <p>Structure and Behaviour Through Time – Feedback Loops and the Dynamics of a Slow-to-Respond Shower 41</p> <p>Processes in a Shower ‘System’ 44</p> <p>Simulation of a Shower and the Dynamics of Balancing Loops 45</p> <p>From Events to Dynamics and Feedback – Drug-related Crime 47</p> <p>A Feedback View 48</p> <p>Scope and Boundary of Factors in Drug-related Crime 50</p> <p>An Aside – More Practice with Link Polarity and Loop Types 51</p> <p>Purpose of Causal Loop Diagrams – A Summary 52</p> <p>Feedback Structure and Dynamics of a Technology-based Growth Business 52</p> <p>Causal Loop Diagrams – Basic Tips 55</p> <p>Picking and Naming Variables 55</p> <p>Meaning of Arrows and Link Polarity 56</p> <p>Drawing, Identifying and Naming Feedback Loops 57</p> <p>Causal Loop Diagram of Psychological Pressures and Unintended Haste in a Troubled Internet Start-Up 58</p> <p>References 61</p> <p><b>Chapter 3 Modelling Dynamic Systems 63</b></p> <p>Asset Stock Accumulation 63</p> <p>Accumulating a ‘Stock’ of Faculty at Greenfield University 65</p> <p>Asset Stocks in a Real Organisation – BBC World Service 69</p> <p>The Coordinating Network 70</p> <p>Modelling Symbols in Use: A Closer Look at Drug-related Crime 72</p> <p>Equation Formulations 75</p> <p>Drug-related Crime 76</p> <p>Funds Required to Satisfy Addiction 77</p> <p>Street Price and Price Change 78</p> <p>Allocation of Police 79</p> <p>Experiments with the Model of Drug-related Crime 80</p> <p>A Tour of the Model 80</p> <p>Escalating Crime – The Base Case 82</p> <p>Drilling Down to the Equations 84</p> <p>Anomalous Behaviour Over Time and Model Boundary 86</p> <p>Benefits of Model Building and Simulation 89</p> <p>References 90</p> <p><b>Chapter 4 World of Showers 91</b></p> <p>Getting Started 91</p> <p>Taking a Shower in World of Showers A 92</p> <p>Taking a Shower in World of Showers B 95</p> <p>Redesigning Your World of Showers 96</p> <p>Reflections on the World of Showers 98</p> <p>Metaphorical Shower Worlds in GlaxoSmithKline, IBM and Harley-Davidson 100</p> <p>Inside World of Showers 102</p> <p>A Tour of Formulations in the Comfort-seeking Loop of the Hidden Shower 102</p> <p>Interdependence of Showers – Coupling Formulations 105</p> <p>Simulations of World of Showers B 105</p> <p>References 107</p> <p><b>Chapter 5 Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building 109</b></p> <p>An Overview of the Modelling Process 109</p> <p>Dynamic Hypothesis and Fundamental Modes of Dynamic Behaviour 111</p> <p>Team Model Building 112</p> <p>Employment and Production Instability – Puzzling Performance Over Time 117</p> <p>Dialogue About Production Control 120</p> <p>Thought Experiment: A Surprise Demand Increase in an Ideal Factory 122</p> <p>Equation Formulations and Computations in Production Control 124</p> <p>Forecasting Shipments – Standard Formulations for Information Smoothing 126</p> <p>Inventory Control – Standard Formulations for Asset Stock Adjustment 127</p> <p>Desired Production 128</p> <p>The Computations Behind Simulation 129</p> <p>Modelling Workforce Management and Factory Production Dynamics 133</p> <p>Dialogue About Workforce Management 133</p> <p>Operating Constraint Linking Workforce to Production 135</p> <p>Simulation of the Complete Model: A Surprise Demand Increase in a Factory Where Production is Constrained by the Size of the Workforce 136</p> <p>Pause for Reflection 140</p> <p>Equation Formulations in Workforce Management 140</p> <p>Departure Rate – Standard Formulation for Stock Depletion 141</p> <p>Hiring – Standard Formulations for Asset Stock Replacement and Adjustment 142</p> <p>Workforce Planning 144</p> <p>Chronic Cyclicality in Employment and Production and How to Cure It 145</p> <p>The Curious Effect of Random Variations in Demand 145</p> <p>Industry Cyclicality and Business Cycles 147</p> <p>Policy Formulation and What-ifs to Improve Factory Performance 148</p> <p>Modelling for Learning and Soft Systems 152</p> <p>A Second Pause for Reflection: System Dynamics and Soft Systems 153</p> <p>A Link to Soft Systems Methodology 156</p> <p>Alternative Views of a Radio Broadcaster 159</p> <p>Appendix 1: Model Communication and Policy Structure Diagrams 162</p> <p>Appendix 2: The Dynamics of Information Smoothing 164</p> <p>References 166</p> <p><b>Chapter 6 The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion 169</b></p> <p>Stocks and Flows in New Product Adoption – A Conceptual Diffusion Model 171</p> <p>The Bass Model – An Elegant Special Case of a Diffusion Model 172</p> <p>The Dynamics of Product Adoption by Word-of-mouth 175</p> <p>The Need to Kick-start Adoption 177</p> <p>The Complete Bass Diffusion Model With Advertising 177</p> <p>The Dynamics of Product Adoption by Word-of-mouth and Advertising 179</p> <p>A Variation on the Diffusion Model: The Rise of Low-cost Air Travel in Europe 182</p> <p>easyJet – A Bright Idea, but Will it Work? 182</p> <p>Visualising the Business: Winning Customers in a New Segment 183</p> <p>Visualising Retaliation and Rivalry 186</p> <p>Feedback Loops in the easyJet Model 188</p> <p>Strategy and Simulation of Growth Scenarios 189</p> <p>Using the Fliers Simulator to Create Your Own Scenarios 193</p> <p>Simulation, Predictions and Scenarios 194</p> <p>Conclusion 194</p> <p>Appendix: More About the Fliers Model 195</p> <p>Back to the Future – From easyJet to People Express and Beyond 197</p> <p>References 199</p> <p><b>Chapter 7 Managing Business Growth 201</b></p> <p>A Conceptual Model of Market Growth and Capital Investment 203</p> <p>Background to the Case 203</p> <p>Adopting a Feedback View 204</p> <p>Formulation Guidelines for Portraying Feedback Structure 206</p> <p>Review of Operating Policies and Information Flows in the Market Growth Model 209</p> <p>Customer Ordering 209</p> <p>Sales Force Expansion 210</p> <p>Budgeting 211</p> <p>Capital Investment 212</p> <p>Goal Formation 214</p> <p>An Information Feedback View of Management and Policy 215</p> <p>Information Available to Decision Makers and Bounded Rationality 217</p> <p>Nature of Decision Making and the Decision Process 220</p> <p>Policy Structure and Formulations for Sales Growth 222</p> <p>Sales Force Hiring – Standard Stock Adjustment Formulation 223</p> <p>Sales Force Budgeting – Revenue Allocation and Information Smoothing 223</p> <p>Order Fulfilment – Standard Stock Depletion Formulation 225</p> <p>Customer Ordering 226</p> <p>Policy Structure and Formulations for Limits to Sales Growth 226</p> <p>Customer Response to Delivery Delay – Non-linear Graphical Converter 228</p> <p>Customers’ Perception of Delivery Delay – Information Smoothing 229</p> <p>Order Fulfilment and Capacity Utilisation 229</p> <p>Policy Structure and Formulations for Capital Investment 231</p> <p>Assessment of Delivery Delay 232</p> <p>Goal Formation – Weighted Average of Adaptive and Static Goals 232</p> <p>Capacity Expansion – Fractional Asset Stock Adjustment 233</p> <p>Production Capacity – Two-Stage Stock Accumulation 236</p> <p>Simulation Experiments 237</p> <p>Simulation of Sales Growth Loop 238</p> <p>Strength of Reinforcing Loop 241</p> <p>Simulation of Sales Growth and Customer Response Loops 242</p> <p>Simulation of the Complete Model with all Three Loops Active – The Base Case 246</p> <p>Redesign of the Investment Policy 250</p> <p>Top Management Optimism in Capital Investment 251</p> <p>High and Unyielding Standards – A Fixed Operating Goal for Delivery Delay 253</p> <p>Policy Design, Growth and Dynamic Complexity 256</p> <p>Conclusion 257</p> <p>Overview of Policy Structure 257</p> <p>Growth and Underinvestment at People Express? 261</p> <p>More Examples of Growth Strategies that Failed or Faltered – and One that Succeeded 262</p> <p>Growth Strategy for New Products and Services in a Competitive Industry 264</p> <p>Appendix – Gain of a Reinforcing Loop 266</p> <p>References 268</p> <p><b>Chapter 8 Industry Dynamics – Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers 271</b></p> <p>Problem Articulation – Puzzling Dynamics of Oil Price 272</p> <p>Towards a Dynamic Hypothesis 274</p> <p>Model Development Process 275</p> <p>A Closer Look at the Stakeholders and Their Investment Decision Making 278</p> <p>Investment by the Independent Producers 279</p> <p>Development Costs 280</p> <p>Policy Structure and Formulations for Upstream Investment – Fractional Asset Stock Adjustment 282</p> <p>Oil Price and Demand 284</p> <p>The Swing Producer 286</p> <p>Quota Setting 288</p> <p>The Opportunists 290</p> <p>The Rise of Russian Oil – Incorporating Unforeseen Political Change 291</p> <p>The Shale Gale – Incorporating Unforeseen Technological Change 292</p> <p>Connecting the Pieces – A Feedback Systems View 294</p> <p>Two Invisible Hands and More 295</p> <p>The Visible Hand of OPEC 297</p> <p>Webs of Intrigue – Inside OPEC’s Opulent Bargaining Rooms 297</p> <p>A Simple Thought Experiment: Green Mindset and Global Recession 300</p> <p>Using the Model to Generate Scenarios 301</p> <p>Archive Scenario 1: 10-Year Supply Squeeze Followed by SupplyGlut 301</p> <p>Archive Scenario 2: Quota Busting in a Green World 306</p> <p>Scenario from the Mid-1990s to 2020: Asian Boom with Quota Busting, Cautious Upstream Investment and Russian Oil 309</p> <p>A High Price Scenario from the Mid-1990s to 2020: How to PushOil Price Over $60 per Barrel 314</p> <p>A 2010–2034 Scenario: Subdued Global Oil Economy with Shale Gale and OPEC Supply Boost 317</p> <p>Modified 2010–2034 Scenario: Subdued Global Oil Economy with Shale Gale and Punitive Saudi Supply Control 322</p> <p>2010–2034 Thought Experiment: Subdued Global Oil Economy with a Shale Gale and Mooted US Supply Control – The ‘Saudi America’ Hypothesis 324</p> <p>Devising New Scenarios 327</p> <p>Effect of Global Economy and Environment on Demand 327</p> <p>Cartel Quota Bias 327</p> <p>Opportunists’ Capacity Bias 328</p> <p>Oil Price Bias 328</p> <p>Capex Optimism 328</p> <p>Time to Build Trust in Russia (in Oil World 1995 and 2010) 329</p> <p>Endnote: A Brief History of the Oil Producers’ Project 329</p> <p>References 331</p> <p><b>Chapter 9 Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling 333</b></p> <p>Urban Dynamics – Growth and Stagnation in Cities 334</p> <p>Urban Model Conceptualisation 335</p> <p>Medical Workforce Dynamics and Patient Care 340</p> <p>Background 341</p> <p>Medical Workforce Planning Model 342</p> <p>Quality of Patient Care 346</p> <p>Base Run – Changing Composition of the Medical Workforce 348</p> <p>Base Run – Quality of Patient Care 350</p> <p>Intangible Effects of the European Working Time Directive 351</p> <p>Modelling Junior Doctor Morale 351</p> <p>Overview of the Complete Model 353</p> <p>The Formulation of Work–Life Balance and Flexibility 354</p> <p>Simulations of the Complete Model 355</p> <p>Conclusions from the Medical Workforce Study 359</p> <p>Fishery Dynamics and Regulatory Policy 361</p> <p>Fisheries Management 361</p> <p>A Simple Harvested Fishery – Balancing Catch and Fish Regeneration 363</p> <p>A Harvested Fishery with Endogenous Investment – Coping with a Tipping Point 366</p> <p>Simulated Dynamics of a Harvested Fishery with Endogenous Investment 369</p> <p>Control and Regulation – Policy Design for Sustainable Fisheries 371</p> <p>Formulation of Deployment Policy 373</p> <p>Stock and Flow Equations for Ships at Sea, Ships in Harbour and Scrap Rate 375</p> <p>Simulated Dynamics of a Regulated Fishery – The Base Case 375</p> <p>Policy Design – A Higher Benchmark for Fish Density 379</p> <p>Dynamics of a Weakly Regulated Fishery 381</p> <p>Policy Design – Lower Exit Barriers Through Quicker Scrapping of Idle Ships 383</p> <p>Sustainability, Regulation and Self-Restraint 387</p> <p>Conclusion 387</p> <p>Appendix – Alternative Simulation Approaches 388</p> <p>From Urban Dynamics to SimCity 389</p> <p>Discrete-event Simulation and System Dynamics 390</p> <p>Conclusions on Alternative Approaches to Simulation Modelling 396</p> <p>References 398</p> <p><b>Chapter 10 Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning 403</b></p> <p>Mental Models, Transitional Objects and Formal Models 404</p> <p>Models of Business and Social Systems 406</p> <p>Tests for Building Confidence in Models 407</p> <p>Model Confidence Building Tests in Action: A Case Study in Fast-moving Consumer Goods 410</p> <p>Soap Market Overview 410</p> <p>The Modelling Project 411</p> <p>Model Structure Tests and the Soap Industry Model 412</p> <p>Boundary Adequacy and Structure Verification Tests Applied to a Simple Soap Model 413</p> <p>A Refined View of the Market 416</p> <p>Boundary Adequacy and Sector Map of the Complete Soap Industry Model 417</p> <p>Managerial Decision-making Processes in the Old English Bar Soap Company 419</p> <p>Managerial Decision-making Processes in Global Personal Care 420</p> <p>Managerial Decision-making Processes in Supermarkets 421</p> <p>Equation Formulation Tests and the Soap Industry Model 422</p> <p>Substitution of Bar Soap by Shower Gel 423</p> <p>Brand Switching Between Competing Bar Soap Products 424</p> <p>Model Behaviour Tests and Fit to Data 428</p> <p>Tests of Fit on Simulations of the Soap Industry Model – The Base Case 432</p> <p>Tests of Learning from Simulation 436</p> <p>Comparing Simulations with Expectations and Interpreting Surprise Behaviour 436</p> <p>Partial Model Simulations to Examine Pet Theories and Misconceptions 437</p> <p>Family Member Tests 438</p> <p>Policy Implication Tests 439</p> <p>Understanding Competitive Dynamics in Fast-moving Consumer Goods 439</p> <p>Summary of Confidence Building Tests 441</p> <p>Conclusion – Model Fidelity and Usefulness 444</p> <p>Endnote: The Loops of Feedback 447</p> <p>References 449</p> <p>About the Website Resources 451</p> <p>Index 452</p>
<p><b>John Morecroft</b> is Senior Fellow in Management Science and Operations at London Business School where he has taught system dynamics, problem structuring and strategy in MBA, PhD and Executive Education programmes. He served as Associate Dean of the School's Executive MBA and co-designed EMBA-Global, a dual degree programme with New York's Columbia Business School.
<p><b>NEW, UPDATED EDITION</b> <p>'Much more than an introduction, John Morecroft's <i>Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics</i> uses interactive "mini-simulators and microworlds" to create an engaging and effective learning environment in which readers, whatever their background, can develop their intuition about complex dynamic systems.'<br/> <b>–John Sterman, Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management, MIT Sloan School of Management</b> <p>'This book, with its vivid examples and simulators, is helping to bring modelling, system dynamics and simulation into the mainstream of management education where they now belong.'<br/> <b>–John A. Quelch, Professor of Marketing, Harvard Business School, Former Dean of London Business School</b> <p>'An ideal text for students interested in system modelling and its application to a range of real-world problems. The book covers all that is necessary to develop expertise in system dynamics modelling and through the range of applications makes a persuasive case for the power and scope of SD modelling. As such, it will appeal to practitioners as well as students.'<br/> <b>–Robert Dyson, Emeritus Professor, Operational Research and Management Sciences Group, Warwick Business School</b> <p>'Illustrated by examples from everyday life, business and policy, John Morecroft expertly demonstrates how systems thinking aided by system dynamics can improve our understanding of the world around us. Anyone who is interested in understanding the world and making better choices should read this book.'<br/> <b>–Stewart Robinson, Associate Dean (Research), President of the Operational Research Society, Professor of Management Science, School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University</b> <p>'This text fills the gap between texts focusing on the purely descriptive systems approach and the more technical system dynamics ones.'<br/> <b>–Ann van Ackere, Professor of Decision Sciences, HEC Lausanne, Université de Lausanne</b> <p>'The author demonstrates the appeal and power of business modelling to make sense of strategic initiatives and to anticipate their impacts through simulation. The book offers various simulators that allow readers to conduct their own policy experiments.'<br/> <b>–Dr Erich Zahn, Professor for Strategic Management, University of Stuttgart</b> <p>Additional online resources are available at: <b>www.wiley.com/go/strategicmodelling2e</b>

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