Sixth Edition
This sixth edition first published 2017
© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Edition history: 5e: John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2012; 4e: Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2007; 3e, 2e, 1e: Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2001, 1997, 1992
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Library of Congress Cataloging‐in‐Publication Data
Names: Livi‐Bacci, Massimo, author.
Title: A concise history of world population / Massimo Livi‐Bacci.
Other titles: Storia minima della popolazione del mondo. English
Description: Sixth edition. | Hoboken, NJ : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2017. | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2016034598 (print) | LCCN 2016047998 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119029274 (pbk.) | ISBN 9781119029298 (pdf) | ISBN 9781119029304 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Population–History.
Classification: LCC HB871 .L56513 2017 (print) | LCC HB871 (ebook) | DDC 304.6–dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016034598
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
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Cover design by Wiley
Why is the present population of the world 7 billion1 and not several orders of magnitude greater or smaller? For thousands of years prior to the invention of agriculture the human species must have numbered a thousandth of what it does today; and there are those who maintain that our planet, given the available resources, could comfortably accommodate a population 10 times larger than it does at present. What are the factors that through the ages determined demographic growth? How is the difficult balance with resources and environment maintained? These are fairly old questions, confronted for the first time in a modern form by Malthus, who, not by accident, inspired the work of Darwin.
In the pages of this “concise history” I intend to address these fundamental questions, discussing the underlying suppositions, the proposed solutions, the points already clarified, and those still requiring investigation. The reader will find here a general discussion of demographic development and, I hope, a guide to understanding the mechanisms that, through the ages, have determined population growth, stagnation, or decline.
Since the invention of fire the human species has sought to modify the environment and enrich the resources it provides. In the very long term (millennia), humanity has grown numerically in relative harmony with available resources. Certainly the system of hunting and gathering could not have allowed the survival of many more than several million people, just as the European system of agriculture could only, with great difficulty, have supported more than the 100 million inhabitants who lived on the continent prior to the Industrial Revolution. However, in shorter spans of time (centuries or generations) this equilibrium is not so obvious, for two fundamental reasons. The first is the recurrent action of catastrophic events – epidemics, climatic, or natural disasters – which alter radically one term of the population–resources equation. The second lies in the fact that the demographic mechanisms that determine reproductive intensity, and so demographic growth, change slowly and do not “adapt” easily to rapidly evolving environmental conditions. It is frequently claimed that the human species is equipped with “self‐regulating” mechanisms that allow for the speedy reestablishment of the balance between numbers and resources. However, this is only partially true, as these mechanisms – when they do work – are imperfect (and of varying efficiency from population to population and from one age to another), so much so that entire populations have disappeared – a clear sign of the failure of all attempts at regulation.
In the following pages I devote a great deal of attention to the functioning, in various contexts and periods, of the mechanisms that determine the always precarious balance between population and resources. In order to do this I have addressed problems and topics – from biology to economics – rarely touched upon in demographic works, and so have risked losing the depth of this study for the breadth of its extension. A worthwhile risk, given the complexity of population change’s forces.
This publication was made possible through the cooperation of Biblioteca Italia, a Giovanni Agnelli Foundation program for the diffusion of Italian culture.