001

Table of Contents
 
Title Page
Copyright Page
Dedication
Acknowledgements
Prologue
 
Chapter 1 - Bubble to Bubble
 
Greenspan’s Shock and Awe
Houses Built on Cow Dung
 
Chapter 2 - Home Sweet Home
 
Opening Doors
An Industry Is Born
Subprime Returns
 
Chapter 3 - The Subprime Machine
 
From Delivering Pizza to Delivering Mortgages
Living the Dream
Diving into Deep Trouble
 
Chapter 4 - Eyes Wide Shut
 
A Warning Unheeded
A Dream No More
 
Chapter 5 - The Great Enabler
 
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Hit the Scene
Fannie and Freddie Get a Timeout
Wall Street Takes Over
A Tsunami of Mortgages
From Ownit to Out of It
Back from the Grave
 
Chapter 6 - Complicity
 
Moody’s the Money Maker
Repeat Customers
 
Chapter 7 - The Securitization from Hell
 
The Making of a CDO
Tough to Kill
Turning “Crap into Triple-A”
From CDS to CDO
Insanity Sets In
 
Chapter 8 - Narvik and Me
 
CDOs: An American Export
The Truth Revealed—But Does It Matter?
 
Chapter 9 - Mortgaging Merrill’s Future
 
Climbing Out of Poverty
A Strong Start
The Secret Weapon
Raking It In
Taking Big Risks
 
Chapter 10 - A House of Cards
 
Digging for Gold
Building a Case
The Investment of a Lifetime
 
Chapter 11 - And Then the Roof Caved In
 
The Wheels Coming Off
The Call
A Crisis Begins
The CDO Blues
Lights Out
 
Epilogue
A Note on Sources
Resources from CNBC
Index

001

To Jonathan and Emily

Acknowledgments
This book is the product of my reporting about the financial crisis that has gripped the world over the past three years. It owes much of its content to the interviews I conducted on camera and off, for the CNBC documentary House of Cards, which first aired on that network in February 2009.The producer of House of Cards, James Jacoby, spent a year assembling and shaping its contents into a great piece of journalism. Without his work, this book would not have been written. Intelligent, creative, and warmhearted, James is a good friend to whom I am deeply grateful.
Documentaries are collaborative efforts, and as such, House of Cards owes its existence to a small group of wonderfully talented people to whom I am indebted. Jill Landes was its co-producer, a TV veteran to whom we would turn time and again to help us navigate a difficult and complex story. I am grateful for her work.
My deepest thanks go to my longtime video editor, the wonderfully talented Patrick Ahearn. Josh Howard is a great friend who, as head of our unit, thankfully gave us the go-ahead to produce House of Cards and helped guide us as we made it a reality. He also helped me come up with the title for this book. I was amazingly lucky to have Mitch Weitzner take over from where Josh left off. Mitch’s insights helped make House of Cards, and thus this book, far better. My thanks go also to CNBC’s management: Mark Hoffman, its president, and Jonathan Wald, who ran business news while House of Cards was in production.
Finally, I must acknowledge the wonderful work of my “daytime” producer, Mary Catherine Wellons, who kept me focused on my daily reporting on the crisis for CNBC, while I was also working on our documentary and this book. She’s a first-class person with a great mind and a great future.
The story in this book gains its power from the personal experiences related to me by those who were on the frontlines of the mortgage industry and Wall Street. Many of those people would not speak to me on the record, let alone on camera, and so I am especially grateful to the people who chose to do interviews. My thanks go to Michael Francis, Lou Pacific, Bill Dallas, Sylvain Raynes, Ann Rutledge, and Ira Wagner for taking on the tough questions about what they did and why they did it. My thanks as well to the many homeowners who spoke with us, including Arturo Trevilla and Ernesto and Trina Contreras.
Alan Greenspan gave generously of his time during a 90-minute interview that I will long remember. FDIC Chair Sheila Bair was forthcoming and full of insight. I am grateful to them both.
Kyle Bass has tutored me for the past three years in the scary science of subprime mortgages and CDOs. His deep understanding of those subjects helped inform this book. My thanks also go to Jimmy Frischling for aiding in my understanding of all manner of CDOs and securitized mortgage products.
Scott Waxman is unrelenting, a good quality for a book agent. He is also a great supporter. This book would not have happened without him and I’m very happy to have him in my corner. The team at John Wiley & Sons has been nothing short of excellent. I’m proud to be published by a company whose first love is books about business.
My friend, Wendy Flanagan, a much better writer than I, took the time to read my manuscript and assure me it all made sense. My deepest thanks to her. My thanks as well to all my friends for their constant support.
My love to my mom and dad and my entire extended family for their concern, support, and attention. I needed all of it.
The central person in my life is my wife, Jenny. She is my everything, including my first-line editor. During the many weekends when I wrote, she spirited our children out of the house for the day. That’s not always easy, even with the two greatest children in history. I like to believe they think it commonplace for a dad to be staying up nights and working weekends to write a book. I’m sure that one day, if they choose to, they’ll do a far better job than I. I’m only glad that I have my weekends back to be with them. Nothing could be better than that.
D. F.

Prologue
“On the Verge”
 
 
 
It’s September 14, 2008, the second week of the NFL season. After being out for the day, I’ve returned home with my family and am hoping to settle into the couch to enjoy the day’s late game. But I know that’s probably not going to happen. Try as I might to convince myself otherwise, this Sunday is far from typical. Ever since I left the office on Friday, I had been nervously awaiting this moment, when I could begin to make phone calls to try to find out whether the financial world that I have covered for the last 22 years is a thing of the past.
When I left my office at CNBC’s headquarters on Friday, it was clear the storied investment bank Lehman Brothers was in deep trouble. I had been reporting on its worsening plight for months. Lehman had been battling a crisis of confidence that began in the earliest days of the credit meltdown. A financial company such as Lehman, which is exchanging vast sums of money every minute with other financial companies, must maintain the trust of those with whom it does business. The minute that trust disappears, as it did earlier in the year with Lehman’s competitor Bear Stearns, the firm is unable to meet its obligations. In other words, it’s lights out. The concern among investors and, most importantly, the firms with whom it did business, was that Lehman was not being honest about the value of the assets on its balance sheet. The firm had played big in the mortgage industry and many did not believe Lehman’s endless claims that it was marking its real estate-related assets at their appropriate value.
There had been plenty of days over the last year when Lehman was free of the rumors and doubt that would color its future. But, like a cancer that retreats into submission, yet still lurks within, Lehman had never been able to fully shake the concerns about its balance sheet. For Lehman, the last few weeks had seen the cancer return with a vengeance, and, as I left work late on Friday, it seemed certain the 114-year-old investment bank would be sold. If a sale couldn’t be arranged, it was far from clear that Lehman could keep operating. That would mean only one thing: bankruptcy.
I pulled the phone to my lap, but still kept the football game on, somehow hoping it would all blow over. As I began to review my list of contacts to determine whom to call, my mind went back to a meeting I had with Lehman’s chairman and CEO Richard Fuld only three months earlier. I had not seen Fuld for years and we both agreed it might be a good time to get reacquainted. And so, late one June afternoon, I headed to Fuld’s office in midtown Manhattan to try to get a better understanding of what was truly going on at the firm he had led for the previous 14 years. A day earlier, the firm had reported a second-quarter loss of $2.8 billion and said it was raising $6 billion in new capital. Lehman was certainly not in good shape, but it seemed poised to survive.
Fuld did most of the talking. He seemed to be testing out a new approach to explaining why his firm was going to thrive in the years ahead. I sat respectfully as he droned on, talking about Lehman’s global franchise and all the ways it could make money beyond the financing of real estate. Fuld is a tough guy. But as I sat back and listened to him pontificate on the merits of the firm he had shaped, he seemed out of touch, as though he were not fully entrenched in the new reality of the financial world: a reality in which every firm had become suspect.
Toward the end of our meeting I asked Fuld why he went ahead with a $22 billion deal to finance and buy the giant real estate investment trust Archstone, a deal that compounded its holdings of real estate. It was a deal Lehman could have exited. Whereas doing so would have hurt the firm’s reputation, it would have saved it billions in potential losses in what was already an uncertain real estate market. Exiting the Archstone deal would have also saved Lehman from endless conjecture on just how much money it was losing from the deal—conjecture that contributed to a lack of confidence in the firm’s solvency. Fuld seemed surprised at the question. “It was a good deal,” he told me. “We still think it’s a good deal.” I really thought the question might prompt a bit of self-reflection or even self-criticism. But that was Dick Fuld. He believed. Two days after our meeting, Fuld would fire his longtime number two, Joe Gregory, and his chief financial officer, Erin Callan.
A few quick calls had me now somewhat up to speed with what was developing. Lehman had been having conversations with both Bank of America and Barclay’s about an acquisition, but as the weekend came to a close there was no deal.The key reason was that the U.S. government was making it clear it would not step in to take on any of Lehman’s bad assets. Without a government assist, would-be buyers were leery. What had seemed improbable on Friday and inconceivable during my meeting with Fuld only a few months earlier, was now likely: Lehman Brothers was about to go bankrupt.
It was only the start of the longest night of my career.
For weeks prior to that Sunday evening, I had also been following the startling decline of another company that was far less visible than Lehman Brothers, but far more important to the health of the world’s financial system. American International Group (AIG) was the world’s largest insurance company. It was built by a man named Maurice Greenberg into the greatest single powerhouse the insurance industry had ever known. In many countries around the world, Greenberg had written the laws that would govern the sale and use of insurance. AIG was for many years among the most valuable financial companies in the country. Its market value was routinely above $150 billion. But in 2006, the then 81-year-old Greenberg had been forced from the company after New York’s Attorney General Eliot Spitzer accused him of wrongdoing. AIG would never be the same. Many of the risks the company took on during Greenberg’s reign were risks that he alone may have fully understood. Still, there were few who had any true concern about its financial health.
As a reporter, you tend to follow your sources.While the world was chasing the rapid decline of Lehman, I found myself far more interested in what was going on at AIG. That was because a handful of people I have known for years were involved with the company’s travails. AIG had suffered from a series of quarterly losses. Its stock had sunk dramatically. And in the weeks leading up to that Sunday night, it had lost $50 billion in market value. Still, while the idea that Lehman Brothers could go bankrupt had been contemplated by the many investors and trading counterparties that relied on it, few if any of those same constituencies would ever have thought about such a fate befalling the massive AIG.
It was a call that same night that I’ll never forget. The voice on the other end of the phone was calm. I was calling to get some insight into any of the night’s developing stories and hoped this source might be able to provide it. I remembered this person had done work for AIG and asked whether there was any concern at the insurer about what might happen with a Lehman bankruptcy.
“That’s not their concern,” was the reply.
“Why not?” I asked.
“Because they are on the verge themselves.”
I thought I must have misheard. “On the verge of what?”
“What do you think?”
Yep, it was going to be a very long night.
AIG, which ran a group of highly regulated insurance businesses, was connected to virtually every financial instrument known to the modern financial system through a separate group of unregulated businesses. For many years, the company had the highest credit rating a company could obtain (AAA) and was able to borrow at costs that were not much higher than the federal government. With what was an almost-unlimited supply of cheap money, AIG had done a lot of stupid things. The stupidest of all was its decision to move aggressively into the market for credit default swaps (CDSs).
In AIG’s defense, a credit default swap is a form of insurance. It gives the buyer of the CDS insurance against the risk of default on any given debt instrument, whether it be a corporate bond, an auto loan, or, to AIG’s lasting regret, a subprime mortgage. Credit default swaps trade based on the likelihood that whatever it is they are insuring will default. The greater the chance investors believe there is that a default will occur, the higher the price of the credit default swap. Like so many other businesses on Wall Street, the CDS market made a great deal of sense before it spun out of control.We’ll talk more about this phenomenon in Chapter 7, but suffice to say that AIG did not appropriately gauge the risk of all the credit default swaps it was writing.
I made more calls. I spoke to another longtime source who knew what was going on at the company. He told me that on Friday, AIG had been unable to roll its commercial paper. It was an off-the-record comment, meaning that I could not use it in my reporting, but it helped me understand just how bad the situation at the company had become. The commercial paper market is used by what are typically high-credit-quality corporations for their short-term borrowing needs. In that market, corporations can borrow billions of dollars for 30, 60, or 90 days, and, when those debts come due, most corporations simply roll them over for another 30-, 60-, or 90-day term. The problem comes when no one wants to buy a corporation’s commercial paper and it is unable to roll. Now I understood how AIG could be “on the verge.” Unable to borrow in the commercial paper markets, the company was rapidly running out of money.
It seemed like a good time to call the office. The typical Sunday at CNBC is pretty quiet, given the network does not feature live programming on the weekends.While we have a handful of people on the assignment desk and a few producers working on the next morning’s shows, our cavernous headquarters is a lonely place on a Sunday night. Not on this night; it was all hands on deck, and, having not checked in thus far, I was only now made aware that we were going live beginning at 8 P.M. Reporting from my couch with the football game on in the background was no longer an option. I showered, put on a suit, and headed for work.
By 6 P.M., news was starting to pour in on a variety of fronts. The Wall Street Journal and New York Times were reporting the stunning news that Lehman would be filing bankruptcy, having been unable to convince the Federal Reserve or Treasury to come to its aid. And in a story I had completely missed, it seemed Bank of America had quickly moved on from its brief courtship with Lehman and was very close to buying the nation’s largest and most important brokerage house, Merrill Lynch. Merrill, I would subsequently learn, was fearful that a Lehman bankruptcy would assure it the same fate and chose to save itself with a hastily crafted deal at a mystifyingly high price.
The Lehman and Merrill stories were being well covered by our own reporters and our competitors, so I focused on AIG. I leaned back at my desk and took a deep breath before embarking on another round of phone calls. I had been a financial reporter for two decades. I had covered the fall of Drexel Burnham Lambert in 1989. I had reported on the collapse of the savings and loan industry in 1990. I’d been lucky enough to break the news of the fall of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management in 1998 and the massive fraud at WorldCom in 2002. I had reported on the tech bubble’s inflation in the late 1990s and its bursting in the early 2000s. And here I was, watching three events happening in the same night that taken separately might have been typical of the biggest financial stories of a decade. It was disorienting, to say the least.
In the intricate dance between reporter and source, persistence is the one constant. After speaking with four or five people who each add an insight or level of detail to a report, I usually find it wise to go back to my initial source and try to cajole a bit more information from the person by convincing him or her of how much more I’ve learned since we first spoke: “I already know this, but could you tell me that one again?” And so, having learned that AIG was desperately trying to raise cash and was talking to private equity firms and Warren Buffett (who controls a huge insurance company), I went back to my original source.
Yes, he told me, AIG was talking to private equity firms and anyone else it thought might be able to lend it money. Its intention was to use certain of its businesses as collateral for a short-term “bridge” loan that it would repay when those businesses were sold. But those talks were not looking promising. AIG needed the money immediately and the firms wanted time to understand its true financial health before committing capital. As a result, my source told me, the company was casting its eyes toward the Federal Reserve. AIG wanted the nation’s central bank to give it a bridge loan of $20 billion. But just then, the Federal Reserve and Treasury, which had evidently decided to let Lehman Brothers go bankrupt, were also turning a deaf ear to AIG’s pleas.
CNBC broadcast live that evening until midnight. A few moments after we went off air, Merrill Lynch announced it was being acquired by Bank of America. A few hours later, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. But AIG did not. It wasn’t quite out of money yet.
That Monday, a throng of executives from AIG and their many advisors descended on the office of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. AIG’s financial position was getting worse by the minute. Its counterparties reacted to the scary news about its future by pulling their business from the company. That left AIG with even less cash. What was worse, the company’s credit rating was going to be downgraded as soon as Monday night, forcing AIG to post more collateral for various transactions.The $20 billion it needed on Sunday night had doubled in less than a day. AIG was now asking for $40 billion.
AIG had a trillion dollars in assets. It did business in every part of the world and it had written credit default swaps on $2.7 trillion worth of debt instruments. While there was debate about whether a bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers would devastate the financial system, there were no such arguments about the effect of a bankruptcy for AIG. Among the people whose opinion I have come to trust over my career, the conclusion was unanimous: AIG’s failure would cause a systemic breakdown of the financial system given its deep and broad ties into every part of that system. As that Monday evening’s telecast came to a close, it looked like the Fed was going to test that conclusion.
Strange things were happening in the credit markets. Confidence, already sorely tested the past 13 months, was all but gone. Financial institutions were severely cutting back on lending to one another in a disturbing pattern that would crest three days later. But still the Fed was not ready to lend AIG money. I had reported on Monday that the investment bank Morgan Stanley and law firm of Wachtel, Lipton had been hired by the Fed to advise it on AIG. It seemed a promising sign for those who were hoping the company would be saved. But as Tuesday began there was no sign that a loan would be forthcoming. That Tuesday morning I reported definitively, based on my conversations with numerous sources who knew, that if AIG did not receive money from the Federal Reserve it would file for bankruptcy the next day.
The Fed blinked. Reluctant as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson may have been to take the unprecedented step of lending billions of taxpayer dollars to a publicly traded insurance company, the risk of not doing so was too large to take. The Fed’s initial recalcitrance had proved costly. What was $20 billion on Sunday and $40 billion on Monday had amazingly become $85 billion by Tuesday night. AIG’s business had deteriorated that quickly. The downgrade of its credit rating on Monday night had forced it to post billions in additional collateral. I reported the news that night in what had become our customary breaking news programming. AIG would receive an $85 billion bridge loan from the federal government with a term of two years and an interest rate of LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offer Rate) plus 8.5 percent. In return for that loan, the federal government would take control of the giant insurer by obtaining 79.9 percent of the company’s public shares. The American taxpayer had just bought itself the biggest, most troubled insurance company in the world.
When the credit crisis began in the late summer of 2007, I turned to a group of people I had been speaking with for 20 years to get insight about its significance. I started as a banking reporter in the mid-1980s, and one of the few benefits of growing older is that your sources do, too.The midlevel executives I had spoken with in the 1980s were now running many of our nation’s banks. Even in the earliest days of the crisis, when financial institutions were only beginning to show trepidation about extending credit and the stock market was about to hit new all-time highs, my sources were certain that we were in for deep trouble.The investors in the stock market seemed to have no idea what was going on in the credit markets—no idea of how hard it had become to get a loan, even if it was of extremely short duration, and no idea, it seemed to me, of what that fact would mean for our financial markets or our economy.
On Wednesday, after another late night of broadcasting, many people believed that while there was more bad news to come, the worst of the financial tsunami had passed. But those people weren’t paying attention to the credit markets. In those markets, panic was setting in.
The credit markets are similar to a sewer system. When they are working well, no one thinks about them. In the same way that we don’t question where that clean water that comes out of our tap is actually coming from, most professionals on Wall Street or Main Street don’t give much thought to the free flow of credit. It is something we accept as a constant. But when that credit gets backed up, it is reminiscent of a malfunctioning sewage system. People start to notice. And to take the simile one step farther, if a broken sewage system does not get quickly repaired, a host of malicious diseases is not far behind.
A year after my sources had first warned of the deep trouble toward which we were heading, we had found it. Banks that had not been making loans to corporations or consumers were now leery of making loans to each other.The commercial paper market, which had been slowly drying up for a year, was now closed to almost every borrower. And most terrifying of all, fear was starting to spread throughout the system. Every debt security, other than the debt issued by our government, was suspect. People were pulling money out of every conceivable form of debt and pulling their money out of their bank accounts for fear their bank would soon fail.
Panic is not typically rational. But the threat of panic made rational people prepare for the worst, which meant doing the very same things those who were panicking were doing. Money was coming out of everything, including heretofore-safe money market accounts and heading into Treasury bills and bonds. In a reflection of the panic, people were buying three-month Treasury bills that offered no interest rate. They were giving the U.S. government their money and only asking that it be returned to them three months later.
The conversations I began having with my longtime friends and sources (often one and the same) took on a surreal quality. Can you really put money in a mattress? Can I bury gold bullion in my back-yard? Should I buy a safe and a gun? What happens when people lose all faith in the currency and it simply becomes a piece of paper? What happens when everyone loses confidence in the creditworthiness of everyone else?
And then, on Thursday morning, September 18, we were face to face with it. Over the past few days, a handful of money market funds had seen vast redemptions that were forcing them to liquidate their holdings. The panic had started when one such fund lost value after it suffered losses from its holdings of debt of the now-bankrupt Lehman Brothers. Some funds were forced to stop their own investors from withdrawing their money immediately, which sowed more panic. The money market funds, typically large buyers of commercial paper, had completely withdrawn from that market. In the same way that AIG had been shut out of the commercial paper market six days earlier, now even corporations without any connection to the financial services business were finding it impossible to borrow. And even banks that had always been happy to lend to each other were no longer willing to do so.
Thirteen months after our crisis in credit began, the United States and the rest of the world were about to watch the financial system implode. Countless corporations would be forced to file bankruptcy. Commercial banks and investment banks, watching their depositors and trading partners exit en masse, would quickly become insolvent.
The word credit is derived from the Latin credere, which means “to believe.” When the belief that you will be paid back disappears, there is no credit. Belief is the lifeblood of a healthy financial system and its disappearance brought the very real possibility that the United States and much of the Western world would be thrown into a financial cataclysm the likes of which we had never seen.
How did we come to this point? How did we lose Bear Stearns in March and Lehman Brothers six months later? How could Merrill Lynch have been forced to sell itself? How did the American taxpayer end up owning AIG? And after all that, how was it that our system itself was still teetering on the edge of collapse? That story begins seven years earlier, in the rubble of the World Trade Center.

Chapter 1
Bubble to Bubble
 
 
 
On the morning of September 12, 2001,Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, was hurriedly returning from overseas. No planes were flying into the United States that day, other than his. Before landing in Washington, D.C., Greenspan asked the pilot to fly over the felled towers of the World Trade Center in downtown New York City. As Greenspan viewed the devastation from above, he was deeply concerned about the U.S. economy. Greenspan’s overriding fear was that it would simply cease to function. “History has told us that this kind of a shock to an economy tends to unwind it. Because remember, economies are people meeting with each other. And you had nobody engaging in anything. I was very much concerned we were in the throes of something we had never seen before,” recalls Greenspan.
When those planes hit the towers, the U.S. was already in a recession. It was a mild recession, to be sure, but a recession all the same.The United States was suffering from the deflation of one of the greatest speculative bubbles our markets had ever seen. It was quite a party while it lasted. Hundreds of billions of dollars had been thrown at technology companies of all kinds in a frenzy that defied all logic and all the tenets of prudent investing. Few thought we would ever see a bubble of its kind again.
The technology bubble was very kind to CNBC. Our ratings were routinely above those of any other cable news network and almost all of our viewers, save those who were short the market, were in a good mood. Each day brought a new high in the NASDAQ, and with each year the suspension of disbelief grew. The years 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000 were some of the greatest Wall Street has ever experienced. There was a new paradigm in town. Earnings were of little import.The Internet and anything related to it were all a company needed to be focused on to generate enthusiasm. Growth in revenues, regardless of whether that growth came at the expense of actual earnings, was the only thing investors seemed to care about.
The world was awash in capital, which could be raised in copious amounts for even the worst of businesses. This wasn’t a bubble, they scolded the nonbelievers, it was a new age. Naysayers were dismissed as “not getting it.” I will not rehash all the high points of the great technology bubble of the late 1990s, but for the sake of capturing the flavor of the times, I’ll relate some of the more amazing tech-bubble facts.
In January 1999, Yahoo! was valued at 150 years’ worth of its expected annual revenues for that year. At that same moment, Yahoo!’s value was equal to 693 years’ worth of its expected 1999 earnings. The point is that if Yahoo!’s earnings were to stay the same, it would take 693 years for those earnings to equal what one had spent to buy the stock. That is not really a great value. And Yahoo!, despite being one of the few companies to truly succeed in the Internet era, now trades at 25 times its expected earnings—far below the value it commanded in 1999.
One of the highest-valued mergers of all time involved two companies few people had ever heard of then and most have certainly forgotten by now, JDS Uniphase Corporation and SDL.When JDS Uniphase agreed to buy SDL in July 2000, the deal was valued at $41 billion. The two companies made things that helped fiber-optic networks operate more efficiently, and that was largely the extent of what anyone knew about these companies. JDS Uniphase still exists today. Its stock trades below $5 a share, valuing the company at around $600 million.
Everyone, and I mean everyone, seemed to be playing the stock market. Early one morning in the summer of 1998, I parked my car in a spot that blocked a fruit vendor from pulling his cart to his chosen location. The vendor approached my driver’s-side window and upon seeing me immediately started singing the praises of CNBC. It seems he sold fruit from his pushcart in the mornings and then returned home to trade stocks for the remainder of the market day.To me, that is the very definition of a bubble.
When it burst, it took a whole lot of money with it and quite a few jobs, as hundreds of dot-com and telecom companies were forced to close their doors when the free flow of capital abruptly ended. By the end of 2000, according to the search firm of Challenger, Gray and Christmas, dot-com companies were cutting jobs at a rate of 11,000 a month. The NASDAQ, which peaked in March 2000 at 5000, fell more than 3,000 points over the next year. With job losses mounting and wealth vanishing, the growth of the economy slowed dramatically through 2000 and stopped entirely by the middle of 2001.And then came 9/11.

Greenspan’s Shock and Awe

Alan Greenspan was chairman of the Federal Reserve from August 1987 through February 2006. He was the longest-serving Fed chairman in history, and, until recently, widely regarded as one of the greatest Fed chairmen our country has ever had. He has been endlessly praised for helping to shepherd the economy through the countless shocks it was dealt during his tenure—from the 1987 stock market crash to the collapse of the savings and loan industry in the early 1990s to the implosion of the hedge fund Long Term Capital in 1998 to the horror of 9/11.
Dr. Greenspan’s well-worn face shows every one of his 82 years. But he is still sharp of mind and wit. Since the financial crisis hit, Greenspan’s legacy has been tarnished. That’s one reason why he graciously gave of his time during a September morning in 2008 when I interviewed him at the Mayflower hotel in Washington, D.C.
His celebrity is such that immediately after our interview, his half-eaten bran muffin became a source of focus for our camera crew and my producer, James Jacoby. Our lead cameraman, Marco Mastrorilli, suggested we bag the Greenspan muffin and list it on eBay. Authentication would be relatively easy, since we likely had some film of the man taking a few bites. My producer, however, claimed his father was a great fan of the good doctor Greenspan and asked if he could deliver the muffin to his dad as a gift. We decided that was a worthy home for the Greenspan muffin.
My Interview with Alan Greenspan
Photo courtesy of CNBC.
002
Alan Greenspan
Photo courtesy of CNBC.
003
The Greenspan Muffin
Photo by David Schumacher.
004
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, like every Fed chairman before and since, played the decisive role in figuring out where interest rates in the United States should be set. Whereas investors in the U.S. government bond market can certainly influence longer term interest rates, they take their cue from the short-term rates controlled by the Federal Reserve.
As the bubble in technology stocks inflated, Alan Greenspan kept interest rates in a tight range of between 5 and 6 percent. A couple of months after the NASDAQ peaked in March 2000, rates were raised to 6.5 percent. To put this in perspective, 6.5 percent is a higher rate than we have seen for quite some time, but well below the mid-teens levels at which interest rates hovered in the late 1970s.