Cover: : El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate by Michael J. McPhaden, Agus Santoso and Wenju Cai

Geophysical Monograph Series

200 Lagrangian Modeling of the Atmosphere John Lin (Ed.)
201 Modeling the Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Jospeh D. Huba, Robert W. Schunk, and George V. Khazanov (Eds.)
202 The Mediterranean Sea: Temporal Variability and Spatial Patterns Gian Luca Eusebi Borzelli, Miroslav Gacic, Piero Lionello, and Paola Malanotte‐Rizzoli (Eds.)
203 Future Earth – Advancing Civic Understanding of the Anthropocene Diana Dalbotten, Gillian Roehrig, and Patrick Hamilton (Eds.)
204 The Galápagos: A Natural Laboratory for the Earth Sciences Karen S. Harpp, Eric Mittelstaedt, Noemi d’Ozouville, and David W. Graham (Eds.)
205 Modeling Atmospheric and Oceanic Flows: Insightsfrom Laboratory Experiments and Numerical Simulations Thomas von Larcher and Paul D. Williams (Eds.)
206 Remote Sensing of the Terrestrial Water Cycle Venkat Lakshmi (Ed.)
207 Magnetotails in the Solar System Andreas Keiling, Caitriona Jackman, and Peter Delamere (Eds.)
208 Hawaiian Volcanoes: From Source to Surface Rebecca Carey, Valerie Cayol, Michael Poland, and Dominique Weis (Eds.)
209 Sea Ice: Physics, Mechanics, and Remote Sensing Mohammed Shokr and Nirmal Sinha (Eds.)
210 Fluid Dynamics in Complex Fractured‐Porous Systems Boris Faybishenko, Sally M. Benson, and John E. Gale (Eds.)
211 Subduction Dynamics: From Mantle Flow to Mega Disasters Gabriele Morra, David A. Yuen, Scott King, Sang Mook Lee, and Seth Stein (Eds.)
212 The Early Earth: Accretion and Differentiation James Badro and Michael Walter (Eds.)
213 Global Vegetation Dynamics: Concepts and Applications in the MC1 Model Dominique Bachelet and David Turner (Eds.)
214 Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling and Economics Mario Chavez, Michael Ghil, and Jaime Urrutia‐Fucugauchi (Eds.)
215 Auroral Dynamics and Space Weather Yongliang Zhang and Larry Paxton (Eds.)
216 Low‐Frequency Waves in Space Plasmas Andreas Keiling, Dong‐ Hun Lee, and Valery Nakariakov (Eds.)
217 Deep Earth: Physics and Chemistry of the Lower Mantle and Core Hidenori Terasaki and Rebecca A. Fischer (Eds.)
218 Integrated Imaging of the Earth: Theory and Applications Max Moorkamp, Peter G. Lelievre, Niklas Linde, and Amir Khan (Eds.)
219 Plate Boundaries and Natural Hazards Joao Duarte and Wouter Schellart (Eds.)
220 Ionospheric Space Weather: Longitude and HemisphericDependences and Lower Atmosphere Forcing Timothy Fuller‐Rowell, Endawoke Yizengaw, Patricia H. Doherty, and Sunanda Basu (Eds.)
221 Terrestrial Water Cycle and Climate Change Natural and Human‐Induced Impacts Qiuhong Tang and Taikan Oki (Eds.)
222 Magnetosphere‐Ionosphere Coupling in the Solar System Charles R. Chappell, Robert W. Schunk, Peter M. Banks, James L. Burch, and Richard M. Thorne (Eds.)
223 Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support Karin Riley, Peter Webley, and Matthew Thompson (Eds.)
224 Hydrodynamics of Time‐Periodic Groundwater Flow: Diffusion Waves in Porous Media Joe S. Depner and Todd C. Rasmussen (Auth.)
225 Active Global Seismology Ibrahim Cemen and Yucel Yilmaz (Eds.)
226 Climate Extremes Simon Wang (Ed.)
227 Fault Zone Dynamic Processes Marion Thomas (Ed.)
228 Flood Damage Survey and Assessment: New Insights from Research and Practice Daniela Molinari, Scira Menoni, and Francesco Ballio (Eds.)
229 Water‐Energy‐Food Nexus – Principles and Practices P. Abdul Salam, Sangam Shrestha, Vishnu Prasad Pandey, and Anil K Anal (Eds.)
230 Dawn–Dusk Asymmetries in Planetary Plasma Environments Stein Haaland, Andrei Rounov, and Colin Forsyth (Eds.)
231 Bioenergy and Land Use Change Zhangcai Qin, Umakant Mishra, and Astley Hastings (Eds.)
232 Microstructural Geochronology: Planetary Records Down to Atom Scale Desmond Moser, Fernando Corfu, James Darling, Steven Reddy, and Kimberly Tait (Eds.)
233 Global Flood Hazard: Applications in Modeling, Mapping and Forecasting Guy Schumann, Paul D. Bates, Giuseppe T. Aronica, and Heiko Apel (Eds.)
234 Pre‐Earthquake Processes: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies Dimitar Ouzounov, Sergey Pulinets, Katsumi Hattori, and Patrick Taylor (Eds.)
235 Electric Currents in Geospace and Beyond Andreas Keiling, Octav Marghitu, and Michael Wheatland (Eds.)
236 Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems Celine Scheidt, Lewis Li, and Jef Caers (Eds.)
237 Petroleum Engineering Moshood Sanni (Ed.)
238 Geological Carbon Storage: Subsurface Seals and Caprock Integrity Stephanie Vialle, Jonathan Ajo‐Franklin, and J. William Carey (Eds.)
239 Lithospheric Discontinuities Huaiyu Yuan and Barbara Romanowicz (Eds.)
240 Chemostratigraphy Across Major Chronological Eras Alcides N.Sial, Claudio Gaucher, Muthuvairavasamy Ramkumar, and Valderez Pinto Ferreira (Eds.)
241 Mathematical Geoenergy:Discovery, Depletion, and Renewal Paul Pukite, Dennis Coyne, and Daniel Challou (Eds.)
242 Ore Deposits: Origin, Exploration, and Exploitation Sophie Decree and Laurence Robb (Eds.)
243 Kuroshio Current: Physical, Biogeochemical and Ecosystem Dynamics Takeyoshi Nagai, Hiroaki Saito, Koji Suzuki, and Motomitsu Takahashi (Eds.)
244 Geomagnetically Induced Currents from the Sun to the Power Grid Jennifer L. Gannon, Andrei Swidinsky, and Zhonghua Xu (Eds.)
245 Shale: Subsurface Science and Engineering Thomas Dewers, Jason Heath, and Marcelo Sánchez (Eds.)
246 Submarine Landslides: Subaqueous Mass Transport Deposits From Outcrops to Seismic Profiles Kei Ogata, Andrea Festa, and Gian Andrea Pini (Eds.)
247 Iceland: Tectonics, Volcanics, and Glacial Features Tamie J. Jovanelly
248 Dayside Magnetosphere Interactions Qiugang Zong, Philippe Escoubet, David Sibeck, Guan Le, and Hui Zhang (Eds.)
249 Carbon in Earth’s Interior Craig E. Manning, Jung‐Fu Lin, and Wendy L. Mao (Eds.)
250 Nitrogen Overload: Environmental Degradation, Ramifications, and Economic Costs Brian G. Katz
251 Biogeochemical Cycles: Ecological Drivers and Environmental Impact Katerina Dontsova, Zsuzsanna Balogh‐Brunstad, and Gaël Le Roux (Eds.)
252 Seismoelectric Exploration: Theory, Experiments, and Applications Niels Grobbe, André Revil, Zhenya Zhu, and Evert Slob (Eds.)

Geophysical Monograph 253





El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate

Editors


Michael J. McPhaden
Agus Santoso
Wenju Cai






This Work is a co-publication of the American Geophysical Union and John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

No alt text required.

LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS

Soon‐Il An
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Yonsei University
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Karumuri Ashok
Centre for Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
University of Hyderabad
Hyderabad, India

Magdalena A. Balmaseda
European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts
Reading, UK

Arnaud Bertrand
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD),
MARBEC (Univ Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD)
Sète, France

Richard A. Betts
Met Office Hadley Centre
Exeter, UK; and
Global Systems Institute
University of Exeter
Exeter, UK

Julien Boucharel
LEGOS‐CNRS, University of Toulouse
Toulouse, France

Chantelle A. Burton
Met Office Hadley Centre
Exeter, UK

Wenju Cai
Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research
(CSHOR)
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; and
Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies,
Ocean University of China and
Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Qingdao, China

Suzana J. Camargo
Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory
Columbia University
Palisades, New York, USA

Antonietta Capotondi
University of Colorado, CIRES
Boulder, Colorado, USA; and
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
Boulder, Colorado, USA

Johnny C. L. Chan
Guy Carpenter Asia‐Pacific Climate Impact Centre
School of Energy and Environment
City University of Hong Kong
Hong Kong, China

Savin Chand
Centre for Informatics and Applied Optimization
Federation University Australia
Ballarat, Victoria, Australia

Ping Chang
Department of Oceanography and Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Texas A&M University College Station, Texas, USA

Han‐Ching Chen
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, SOEST
University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
Honolulu, Hawai’i, USA

Danielle C. Claar
School of Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences University of Washington
Seattle, Washington, USA

Kim M. Cobb
Department of Earth Sciences & TechnologyGeorgia
Institute of Technology
Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Julia E. Cole
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

Mat Collins
College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences
University of Exeter
Exeter, UK

Sophie Cravatte
Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie
Spatiales (LEGOS), IRD, CNES, CNRS, UPS
Toulouse, France

Clara Deser
NCAR, Climate and Global Dynamics Division
Boulder, Colorado, USA

Boris Dewitte
Centro de Estudios Avanzado en Zonas Áridas
(CEAZA);
Departamento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias del
Mar, Universidad Católica del Norte;
Millennium Nucleus for Ecology and Sustainable
Management of Oceanic Islands (ESMOI)
Coquimbo, Chile; and
Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et
Océanographie Spatiales (LEGOS), IRD, CNES,
CNRS, UPS
Toulouse, France

Dietmar Dommenget
School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes
Monash University
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Yan Du
State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography
South China Sea Institute of Oceanology Chinese
Academy of Sciences
Guangzhou, Guangdong, China;
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Beijing, China; and
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong
Laboratory
Guangzhou, Guangdong, China

Mary Elliot
Université de Nantes, LPG (UMR6112)
Nantes, France

Julien Emile‐Geay
Department of Earth Sciences
University of Southern California
Los Angeles, California, USA

Alexey V. Fedorov
Earth and Planetary Sciences, Yale University
New Haven, Connecticut, USA; and
LOCEAN‐IPSL, Sorbonne University
Paris, France

Richard A. Feely
NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
Seattle, Washington, USA

Severine Fournier
NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
Pasadena, California, USA

Catherine Ganter
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Licheng Geng
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, SOEST
University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
Honolulu, Hawai’i, USA

Alexander Gershunov
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
University of California–San Diego
La Jolla, California, USA

Lisa Goddard
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Columbia University
Palisades, New York, USA

Eric Guilyardi
LOCEAN‐IPSL, CNRS/Sorbonne University/IRD/MNHN
Paris, France; and
NCAS‐Climate, University of Reading
Reading, UK

Yoo‐Geun Ham
Department of Oceanography
Chonnam National University
Gwangju, Republic of Korea

Michiya Hayashi
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, SOEST
University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
Honolulu, Hawai’i, USA;
Now at Center for Global Environmental Research
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

Alistair J. Hobday
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Neil J. Holbrook
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
University of Tasmania Hobart, Tasmania, Australia;
and
Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes
University of Tasmania Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Shineng Hu
Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory
Columbia University
Palisades, New York, USA

Fei‐Fei Jin
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, SOEST
University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
Honolulu, Hawai’i, USA

Chris D. Jones

Met Office Hadley Centre
Exeter, UK

Christina Karamperidou
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, SOEST
University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
Honolulu, Hawai’i, USA

Myriam Khodri
LOCEAN‐IPSL, IRD/Sorbonne Université/CNRS/MNHN
Paris, France

Hidetada Kiyofuji
National Research Institute of Far Seas Fisheries Japan
Fisheries Research and Education Agency
Shimizu, Shizuoka, Japan

Phil Klotzbach
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, Colorado, USA

Jong‐Seong Kug
Division of Environmental Science & Engineering
Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)
Pohang, Republic of Korea

Michelle L. L’Heureux
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center
College Park, Maryland, USA

Tong Lee
NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
Pasadena, California, USA

Sun‐Seon Lee
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science
Busan, Republic of Korea; and
Pusan National University
Busan, Republic of Korea

Patrick Lehodey
Collecte Localisation Satellite, 11 rue Hermès
31520 Ramonville St Agne, France

Matthieu Lengaigne
LOCEAN‐IPSL, Sorbonne Universités/UPMC‐CNRS‐IRD‐MNHN
Paris, France; and
MARBEC, University of Montpellier, CNRS,
IFREMER, IRD
Sète, France

Aaron F. Z. Levine
Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington
Seattle, Washington, USA

Tim Li
Department of Atmospheric Sciences/IPRC
University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
Honolulu, Hawai’i, USA

I‐I Lin
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
National Taiwan University
Taipei, Taiwan

Jing‐Jia Luo
Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR)/
CICFEM/KLME/ILCEC
Nanjing University of Information Science and
Technology
Nanjing, China

Nicola Maher
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Hamburg, Germany

Sam McClatchie
38 Upland Rd, Huia
Auckland 0604, New Zealand

Shayne McGregor
School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, and
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes,
Monash University
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Kathleen L. McInnes
Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Aspendale, Victoria, Australia

Michael J. McPhaden
NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
Seattle, Washington, USA

Christophe E. Menkès
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)
ENTROPIE (IRD/CNRS/Univ. La Réunion)
Nouméa, New Caledonia

Matthew Newman
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental
Sciences
University of Colorado; and
NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division
Boulder, Colorado, USA

Masamichi Ohba
Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry
Chiba, Japan

Yuko M. Okumura
Institute for Geophysics, Jackson School of Geosciences
The University of Texas at Austin
Austin, Texas, USA

Eric C. J. Oliver
Department of Oceanography
Dalhousie University
Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Christina M. Patricola
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Berkeley, California, USA; and
Iowa State UniversityAmes, Iowa, USA

Francesco S. R. Pausata
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
University of Quebec in Montreal
Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Graham Pilling
The Pacific Community (SPC), BP D5
Noumea, New Caledonia

Jeffrey Polovina
196 Pauahilani Pl.
Kailua, Hawai’i, USA

Scott Power
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and
School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, and
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes
Monash University
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Regina R. Rodrigues
Department of Oceanography
Federal University of Santa Catarina
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Agus Santoso
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and
Climate Change Research Centre
University of New South Wales
Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and
Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research
(CSHOR),
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Alexander Sen Gupta
Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of
Excellence for Climate Extremes
University of New South Wales
Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Janet Sprintall
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
University of California–San Diego
La Jolla, California, USA

Samantha Stevenson
Bren School of Environmental Science &
Management
University of California Santa Barbara
Santa Barbara, California, USA

Timothy N. Stockdale
European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather
Forecasts
Reading, UK

Malte F. Stuecker
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic ScienceBusan, Republic of Korea; andPusan National UniversityBusan, Republic of Korea
Now at Department of Oceanography and
International Pacific Research Center
University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
Honolulu, Hawai’i, USA

Ken Takahashi
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del
Perú—SENAMHI
Lima, Peru

Andrèa S. Taschetto
Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of
Excellence for Climate Extremes
University of New South Wales
Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Sulian Thual
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences/Department of
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
Fudan University
Shanghai, China

Axel Timmermann
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science
Busan, Republic of Korea; and
Pusan National University
Busan, Republic of Korea

Michael K. Tippett
Department of Applied Physics and Applied
Mathematics
Columbia University
New York, USA

Desiree Tommasi
Institute of Marine SciencesUniversity of California Santa CruzSanta Cruz, California, USA; and NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science CenterLa Jolla, California, USA

Kevin E. Trenberth
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, Colorado, USA

Eli Tziperman
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Caroline C. Ummenhofer
Department of Physical Oceanography Woods Hole
Oceanographic Institution
Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA; and
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes
University of New South Wales
Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Jerome Vialard
LOCEAN‐IPSL, CNRS/Sorbonne Université/IRD/MNHN
Paris, France

Bin Wang
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
University of Hawai’i
Honolulu, Hawai’i, USA

Guojian Wang
Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research
(CSHOR)
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; and
Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute for
Advanced Ocean Studies
Ocean University of China and Qingdao National
Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Qingdao, China

Matthew J. Widlansky
Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research
School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology
University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
Honolulu, Hawai’i, USA

Andy J. Wiltshire
Met Office Hadley Centre
Exeter, UK; and
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter
Exeter, UK

Andrew T. Wittenberg
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Princeton, New Jersey, USA

Lixin Wu
Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute for
Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China
and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science
and Technology
Qingdao, China

Ruihuang Xie
Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves
Institute of Oceanology
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Qingdao, China

Sang‐Wook Yeh
Department of Marine Science and Convergent
Technology
Hanyang University
Ansan, Republic of Korea

Jin‐Yi Yu
Department of Earth System Science
University of California–Irvine
Irvine, California, USA

Kyung‐Sook Yun
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science
Busan, Republic of Korea; and
Pusan National University
Busan, Republic of Korea

Xuebin Zhang
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Sen Zhao
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, SOEST
University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
Honolulu, Hawai’i, USA

Feng Zhu
Department of Earth Sciences
University of Southern California
Los Angeles, California, USA

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Each of the 21 chapters in this book was peer reviewed by at least two experts in the field before acceptance for publication. We would like to recognize those individuals, listed below, who participated in this process. We are indebted to them for their willingness to offer thoughtful and constructive critiques of submitted manuscripts. Their efforts have assured that material presented in this book is up to date, of the highest quality, and of the greatest relevance.

Soon‐Il An Andrew Lenton
Magdalena Balmaseda Michelle L’Heureux
Julien Boucharel Janice Lough
Antonietta Capotondi Jing‐Jia Luo
Matthieu Carré Shayne McGregor
Bo Christiansen Christophe Menkès
Mat Collins Kathy Pegion
Boris Dewitte Scott Power
Pedro DiNezio Hamish Ramsay
Dietmar Dommenget Harun Rashid
Alexey Fedorov Alex Sen Gupta
Ming Feng Toshiaki Shinoda
Yoo‐Geun Ham Georgiy Stenchikov
Neil Holbrook Malte Stuecker
Shineng Hu Ken Takahashi
Sarah Ineson Pascal Terray
Nathaniel Johnson Caroline Ummenhofer
Karumuri Ashok Kevin Walsh
Jin‐Soo Kim Yan Xue
Andrew King Jin‐Yi Yu
Mojib Latif Dongliang Yuan