Cover: Global Energy Politics by Thijs Van de Graaf Benjamin K. Sovacool

Global Energy Politics

Thijs Van de Graaf
Benjamin K. Sovacool











polity

Foreword

We are living in an age of unprecedented global change, which is affecting all facets of our societies. Digital technologies are disrupting existing economic and social structures, established political and trade systems are under pressure, and extreme weather conditions are a regular reminder of the perils of climate change for our planet.

Similar forces are also reshaping the energy sector. As Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) from 2011 to 2019, I have had the privilege to witness first-hand this ongoing energy transformation. In less than a decade, renewable energy has moved from the fringes to the center stage of the global energy landscape, thanks to supportive policy frameworks, technological innovation, and rapidly decreasing costs. In 2018, a recordbreaking 171 GW of renewable energy capacity were added globally, led by emerging and developing economies, making it the seventh consecutive year in which additional power generation capacity from renewables outpaced conventional sources. A third of global power capacity is now based on renewables.

Few would have envisioned such remarkable progress just some years ago. We are truly in the midst of revolutionary transformations in our global energy system. The change is driven by the compelling business case for renewables. According to IRENA’s analysis, in 2020, all currently available mainstream renewable energy technologies will be cost-competitive with fossil fuels in most parts of the world. This is a momentous change, especially if you consider that countries taking full advantage of their renewables’ potential will also benefit from a host of socioeconomic benefits, including lower carbon emissions, cleaner air, and more sustainable job growth.

Renewable energy deployment needs to grow even faster, however, to ensure that we can achieve the global climate objectives and the Sustainable Development Goals. The latest special report of the International Panel on Climate Change on Global Warming of 1.5°C has shown that half a degree makes a world of difference and that there is really only one temperature goal toward which we should orient ourselves. Exceeding the ceiling of 1.5°C would lead to intolerable loss of biodiversity, destruction of infrastructure, and many more people exposed to life-threatening conditions such as extreme heat. IRENA’s analysis has shown that renewables and energy efficiency combined provide the most cost-effective pathway to achieve 90% of energy-related reductions required to meet the well below 2°C objective of the Paris Agreement.

As someone who comes from a developing country, Kenya, the plight of energy poverty, which affects billions of people, is very dear to my heart. I believe that the energy transformation offers an opportunity to shift the global development paradigm from one of scarcity, inequality, and competition to one of shared prosperity – in our lifetimes. That is an opportunity we must rally behind by adopting strong policies, mobilizing capital, and driving innovation across the energy system.

In my capacity as head of IRENA, it became clear to me that the energy transformation involves more than the transition from one energy source to another. It also entails the transformation of the geopolitical landscape with profound implications for societies and economies. It is about giving jobs to the millions of young people in emerging and developing economies, generating prosperity at large in an age of austerity, and the reconfiguration of international relations. That is why, in 2018, I took the initiative to set up the Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transformation as an independent body to look further into the wider ramifications of the energy shift for global wealth and stability.

Its final report, which was presented to IRENA’s 160 member states at the General Assembly in January 2019, is a first foray to chart the new geopolitical world emerging from the energy transformation driven by renewables. It lays out how the energy transformation will reshape relations between states and will change the global distribution of power. As countries increasingly develop renewables at home and integrate their grids with those of neighboring countries, they will achieve greater energy independence. Fossil-fuel importing countries will improve their trade balance and enjoy significant macroeconomic benefits. Countries that lead in clean technology innovation stand to gain from the global energy transformation. There will be a diffusion of power and new actors will become more prominent. As renewables decentralize and democratize energy systems, citizens, cities, and regions will become increasingly important players in the new energy landscape.

Certainly, the energy transformation brings new risks related to cybersecurity, new dependencies on critical materials, and socio-economic dislocation in certain countries and sectors. The energy transition might be more of a bumpy ride than a smooth sailing. But, as the report found, overall the benefits of the energy transformation will outweigh the challenges, provided that the right policies and strategies are developed to mitigate the risks. This applies particularly to fossil-fuel exporters. The need for them to diversify their economy offers a huge opportunity to enhance long-term growth, create new jobs, and bring about a more productive future.

In a complex and rapidly changing energy landscape, a comprehensive overview of the global politics of energy such as this one is particularly welcome. I am delighted to recommend this insightful book by Thijs Van de Graaf and Benjamin Sovacool, who skillfully connect the dots between energy markets, geopolitics, the environment, and local activism across a range of energy technologies and sectors. For anyone who wants to understand the complexities and depth of the global energy challenge, Global Energy Politics is essential reading.

Adnan Z. Amin, former Director-General of the International
Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)

Preface

As we are finishing this book manuscript, in the summer of 2019, energy and climate issues are again capturing global headlines. Oil tankers are being seized in the Strait of Hormuz, where tensions have been rising since the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran. A heatwave that shattered records in Europe moved to Greenland, where it triggered massive ice melt as well as forest fires. For the first time since the Industrial Revolution, the UK is reported to generate more electricity from zero-carbon sources than from fossil fuels. The Welsh and UK Parliaments also declared a “climate emergency” over the summer. The United States Congress is taking steps to adopt a Bill that sanctions companies that help to build new gas pipelines from Russia to Europe. These few examples show how the energy and climate conundrum is one of the key undercurrents of world politics in the twenty-first century.

This book aims to introduce readers to the global politics of energy, at a time of momentous changes in both the energy system and global geopolitics. Before embarking on our journey, we would like to thank a number of people. At Polity, we are grateful for the trust and support of Louise Knight, Inès Boxman, and Sophie Wright. We thank Mathieu Blondeel and Moniek de Jong for their assistance with several sections and graphs, as well as Kingsmill Bond for commenting on an earlier version of this manuscript. Both of the authors thank their wonderful families for their continued support, and incredible patience. Last but not least, Thijs Van de Graaf wishes to commend the past and present students that follow his course ‘Global Energy Politics’. These students’ curiosity, questions and critical reflections have made enormous contributions to his thinking on the subject, and have helped to shape this book from its early conception to its final form.

Thijs Van de Graaf & Benjamin K. Sovacool August 2019

About the Authors

Thijs Van de Graaf is Associate Professor of International Politics at Ghent University, Belgium. He is also a non-resident fellow with the Payne Institute, Colorado School of Mines, and with the Initiative for Sustainable Energy Policy (ISEP) at Johns Hopkins University. He was the lead drafter of the report ‘A New World: The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation’ (2019), commissioned by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). His recent books include The Palgrave Handbook of the International Political Economy of Energy (Palgrave, 2016), The Politics and Institutions of Global Energy Governance (Palgrave, 2013), and Global Energy Governance in a Multipolar World (Ashgate/Routledge, 2010).

Benjamin K. Sovacool is Professor of Energy Policy at the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at the University of Sussex Business School, United Kingdom. He is also Director of the Center for Energy Technologies and Professor of Business and Social Sciences in the Department of Business Development and Technology at Aarhus University, Denmark. He is a Lead Author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), due to be published in 2022, and an Advisor on Energy to the European Commission’s Directorate General for Research and Innovation in Brussels, Belgium. With much coverage of his work in the international news media, he is one of the most highly cited global researchers on issues bearing on controversies in energy and climate policy.