COVER
ABOUT SOURCES AND CONTRIBUTORS
1. FEELER, THINKER, HEDGEHOG, FOX – ON PREDICTIONS
1. Are you a feeler or a thinker?
2. Hedgehogs and foxes – which are best at seeing the future?
3. No! As in never!
4. Our knowledge at double speed
5. The creative design field
6. The world's a much better place than people think
2. DEMOGRAPHY AND PROSPERITY
1. The West versus the rest
2. Population growth is actually decreasing rapidly
3. Huge growth in prosperity continues
4. A massive elderly boom
5. Depopulation of rural areas
6. Increased global equality and local inequality – but will this continue?
7. A more peaceful world
8. The lost billion people – the world's biggest problem?
3. THE BIOTECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION – LIFE AS COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY
1. CRISPR – the new genetic word processing
2. New genetically engineered species
3. Recreation of extinct species – the real Jurassic Park
4. Tomorrow's genetically modified humans
5. A healthier, safer world
6. Revolutions in the fight against cancer
7. New cells for old lives
8. Wearables, self-diagnoses, biohacking, and lifestyle medicine
9. The intelligent healthcare of the future
4. COMPUTERS, SOFTWARE, AND ELECTRONIC NETWORKS
1. From exceptional to magical
2. Bell's Law of new computer classes
3. Cloud computing and the as-a-service movement
4. AI – the career cul-de-sac that suddenly got hot
5. IoT – nerve fibres for the mechanical world
6. Big data = big deal
7. Smart robots – the new ecosystem
8. Smart remote control – the magic wands of reality
9. Quantum computers – billions of times faster
10. VR – dream worlds for real
11. AR – Pokémon GO on steroids
12. Ambient user experience – the frictionless total experiences
13. Cyberattack – crime-as-a-service and lots more besides
14. The new stalker economy
5. THE PATH TO INFINITE ENERGY
1. Fossil fuels – the culmination is approaching
2. Vast, constantly growing reserves
3. Nuclear power – a renaissance on the way?
4. Nuclear fusion – the ultimate energy solution
6. THE IMPORTANCE OF INNOVATION FOR RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT
1. Innovation, dear friends. Innovation!
2. Ideas – the ultimate resource
3. Meat produced without animals
4. Greater prosperity, better environment
5. Global warming in perspective
6. The world is actually getting greener
7. The sixth mass extinction?
7. NEW NETWORKS AND DECENTRALISED TECHNOLOGIES
1. Geosocialisation. Who – and where! – you are
2. The e-commerce revolution – far from over
3. Influencer marketing
4. The wild decentralised autonomous organisations
5. Blockchain – the Internet of Value
6. The rating economy – good for markets and culture
7. The global village and its new cyber rock stars
8. Share, care, and save (sharing economy) – hot, hot, hot
9. Exponential organisations: big money!
8. THE TRANSPORT, HOUSES, AND CITIES OF THE FUTURE
1. The transport of the future – faster and more flexible
2. Innovation in the construction sector
3. Tomorrow's jet-set nomads
9. THE NEW LIFESTYLES – EXPERIENCES AND SELF-REALISATION
1. The experience economy – all the world becomes a stage
2. The changeable idea of prestige
3. Self-realisation – the service in which you are the product
4. Innovation and entrepreneurship – self-realisation that gets cheaper
5. Do-it-yourself and maker movements – working for fun
6. The human cloud – total transformation of the labour market
7. More backsourcing
8. Bespoke media
9. Multi-identities are more acceptable
10. Intelligence amplification – better, more flexible education
10. BUSINESS MANAGEMENT IN A MORE DYNAMIC WORLD
1. Impulsive organisations
2. Conformist organisations
3. Achievement organisations
4. Pluralist organisations
5. Evolutionary organisations
6. New technologies create new forms of management
7. The new information paradigm: seek–sense–share
8. What should be kept permanent and what should be done flexibly?
9. Delegation – activate the staff
10. Involvement – make use of your meta-organisation
11. Inclusion: mobilise the whole world for your project
12. Algorithm-based management versus human management
11. THE POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF TOMORROW'S TECHNOLOGIES
1. Three social standard patterns that often undermine civilisations
2. The future welfare society – pyramid states or agile app stores?
3. The battle for top–down management and decentralisation
4. Openness or closedness?
5. The information problem in public management
6. Government as a platform: small government – big services
7. The growing attraction of basic income
8. Value-based public management – good or bad?
12. THE FINAL RULE
APPENDIX: SOURCES AND INSPIRATIONAPPENDIX: SOURCES AND INSPIRATION
BIBLIOGRAPHY
INDEX
END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Tvede, Lars, 1957- author.

Title: Supertrends : 50 things you need to know about the future / Lars Tvede.

Description: Chichester, West Sussex, United Kingdom : John Wiley & Sons, [2020] | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2019040990 (print) | LCCN 2019040991 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119646839 (paperback) | ISBN 9781119646853 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781119646846 (ePub)

Subjects: LCSH: Economic forecasting. | Business forecasting. | Technological innovations—Forecasting.

Classification: LCC HB3730 .T899 2020 (print) | LCC HB3730 (ebook) | DDC 303.48/30112—dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019040990

LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019040991

Cover Design: Wiley

Cover Image: © pialhovik/Getty Images

ABOUT SOURCES AND CONTRIBUTORS

This book has so many sources that I and the Wiley team decided to put the approx 60-page source list online on www.larstvede.com. This also makes it easier for readers to link directly to the source material for closer inspection. For those reasons, there is no source list at the end of this book.

Apart from this, unlike most of my previous books, I wrote this one with some assistance, for which I am of course extremely grateful! I must add, however, that none of those who helped and inspired me can in any way be held responsible for the contents of the book. I had the final word throughout the entire process. Anyway, this was the team:

Jens Ulrik Hansen: Futurist and senior management coach who helps large companies develop working methods to cope with our rapidly changing world. Jens told me about the changes such companies face in terms of creating flexible, creative organisations without ending up in chaos.

Jørn Larsen: Founder and CEO of the Swiss software company Trifork, which currently employees a permanent workforce of about 800. In addition to developing software solutions for customers worldwide, Trifork holds about 50 conferences a year on future technologies. Trifork has also created some 100 spin-off companies, mainly within the software sector. I have developed the Supertrends app and supertrends.com website with Jens, Jørn, and Trifork.

Nicklas Brendborg: Nicklas managed to achieve the highest average ever recorded in a Danish high school and, together with Lars Horsbøl, wrote the bestseller Topstudent. He has just completed his bachelor's degree in Molecular Biomedicine at the University of Copenhagen and is the author of an upcoming book on anti-ageing.

Lars Horsbøl: Also a member of our Youth Board and co-author of the bestseller, Topstudent. Lars holds a bachelor's degree from Copenhagen Business School, where he was selected for the elite GLOBE (global learning opportunities in a business environment) programme. He is now studying Business Analytics and specialising in Artificial Intelligence and big data. He also runs two podcasts: Ejendomsinvestoren (Property Investor) and Fremtidsfabrikken (The Future Factory), the latter together with Eske Gerup.

Karl Iver Dahl Madsen: Engineer, former Vice Chairman of the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, and former member of the Board of Representatives of the Technical University of Denmark. Karl specialises in mathematical modelling and aquaculture. He also possesses an impressive ability to analyse issues open-mindedly and objectively.

Sune Aagard: MA (History and Journalism). I was introduced to Sune by the Danish Foreign Minister, Anders Samuelsen. Sune has worked at the Danish national newspaper, Børsen, and as Head of Communications and Director for the Liberal Alliance party.

Eske Gerup: Member of our Youth Board. Eske is a student at Copenhagen Business School, where he is on the elite GLOBAL SCLM (global supply chain and logistics management) programme. Together with Lars Horsbøl, he runs the podcast Fremtidsfabrikken, for which the two of them interview entrepreneurs and investors about trends in the start-up environment and the technologies of the future. Most recently, Eske was hired by McKinsey & Company.

Andreas Faarup: Also a member of our Youth Board. While at high school, Andreas won an EY Young Talent competition and went on to conduct a research project at the University of Copenhagen on Industry 4.0 and digitisation. He is now an International Business student at Copenhagen Business School and has worked for the likes of IBM, Barclays, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, and PwC.

Again, my heartfelt thanks for your contribution to this book. I know that you are all passionate about the fact that we humans can go through life with a great deal of knowledge and insight.