Cover Page

Peter Gill: for Pen

Mark Phythian: for Di

Intelligence in an Insecure World

Third Edition

PETER GILL AND MARK PHYTHIAN











Preface to the Third Edition

Security intelligence continues to be of central importance in a world characterized by a wide range of risks and high levels of uncertainty: states, organizations, groups and individuals all seek timely and actionable information in order to increase their sense of security. But what exactly is intelligence and how can we ensure that it is not abused? While this third edition is substantially revised and updated, we have retained the essential structure of the first two editions in analysing how and why intelligence processes work as they do in a variety of state and non-state settings.

The continuing significance of intelligence and the increasing study of it taking place in many universities could well have encouraged a longer book, but we decided to concentrate on the essentials, from which readers may embark on their own further research. In updating examples, we have provided more from Europe, since the literature on this area is still far less extensive than it is on the US. The other main changes we have made reflect either significant developments, such as the role of intelligence in the cyber realm, both in terms of defence and offence, the implications and consequences of the leaking of information from the US National Security Agency by Edward Snowden, or new departures in Intelligence Studies. Different aspects of recent terrorist attacks in Belgium, France and Germany are discussed in several chapters, especially in relation to debates about sharing, ‘failure’ and oversight.

Chapter 1 surveys the evolution of intelligence and considers how we define the term. One of the main developments discussed here is an alternative to the outdated concept of an intelligence ‘cycle’ that has provided the bedrock for studying intelligence since serious attempts were first undertaken in the mid-twentieth century. The structure of Chapter 2 remains essentially intact, as we develop a conceptual framework for the study of intelligence. Chapter 3 compares the major features of intelligence in democratic, authoritarian and hybrid regimes and provides an updated review of some of the main intelligence organizations both inside and outside the state. The increasing interdependence between these is shown to be highly significant.

Chapter 4 examines the main methods of information gathering or collection. Increasingly, agencies access the electronic information trail left by individuals going about their daily lives; the publication since 2013 of the ‘Snowden files’ has not just increased greatly what is known about the work of the NSA and GCHQ and their interception of Internet communications and social media, but has also given rise to much debate and changes to legislation in several countries. Chapter 5 deals with the analysis of information, development of ‘intelligence’ and its dissemination. We examine the continuing increase in the use of Web 2.0 technologies in order to enhance information sharing and analysis, while noting the continuing organizational problems that can prevent effective sharing. Chapter 6 focuses on what we term the ‘intensification of surveillance’, where surveillance becomes ‘action’. It considers a range of examples, including the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, or drones), not just for purposes of monitoring or watching, but also for killing those targeted, and offensive cyber strategies and the problem of definitive attribution in this sphere of activity.

The intelligence ‘failure’ that was the misapprehension of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq in 2002–3 remains a seminal issue, and its coverage is updated in Chapter 7 in the context of the long-awaited publication of the Chilcot Report in the UK. There is also a more general consideration of how ‘failure’ is perceived and analysed as well as an examination of its causes, including whether the traditional model relating to ‘strategic’ intelligence is equally applicable to more ‘tactical’ questions of counterterrorism. The core of Chapter 8 remains the issue of democratic control: the challenge facing all of us is to maintain some semblance of democratic control over enhanced intelligence networks of state and non-state entities. Examples of the legal changes made post-Snowden in Germany and the UK are discussed, as is the continuing problem of apparently endless delays when inquiries are set up to examine intelligence abuses. As before, Chapter 9 seeks to draw our conclusions and identify major current challenges to intelligence, including the potential for its use as a tool for ‘human’, and not just ‘national’, security.

Our continuing involvement in seminars, workshops and conferences over the past few years, in which we have discussed many of the themes developed here, leaves us further indebted to colleagues. We have not attempted to list them all here, but we are confident they know who they are! Thank you. We are also grateful to Louise Knight, Nekane Tanake Galdos, Rachel Moore and Sarah Dancy at Polity for their encouragement and assistance in preparing this new edition. We remain much in debt to Pen Gill and Di Phythian for their continuing support. Finally, we acknowledge that any errors are entirely our responsibility.

Peter Gill and Mark Phythian

Abbreviations

Abbreviations are spelled out in full when they first appear. Those that appear at more than one point are listed here.

7/7 7 July 2005 London suicide bombings
9/11 11 September 2001 suicide attacks on New York, Washington, DC
ASIO Australian Security Intelligence Organisation
BND Bundesnachrichtendienst (Germany)
BPD bulk personal dataset
CIA Central Intelligence Agency (US)
CNE computer network exploitation
CoE Council of Europe
COINTELPRO Counter Intelligence Programs (FBI, 1950–60s)
COMINT Communications Intelligence
CSIS Canadian Security Intelligence Service
CSO civil society organization
CSPs communications service providers
CTC Counter Terrorism Command (UK)
CTIVD Review Committee on the Intelligence and Security Services (Netherlands)
DCI Director of Central Intelligence (US, 1947–2004)
DEA Drug Enforcement Administration (US Department of Justice)
DHS Department of Homeland Security (US)
DIA Defense Intelligence Agency (US)
DIS Defence Intelligence Staff (UK)
DISS Military Intelligence and Security Service (Netherlands)
DNC Democratic National Committee (US)
DNI Director of National Intelligence (US, since 2005)
DoD Department of Defense (US)
ECHR European Convention on Human Rights
EI equipment interference
EITs enhanced interrogation techniques
EP European Parliament
FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation (US)
FIG Field Intelligence Group (US)
FISA/C Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act/Court (US)
FRU Force Research Unit (UK)
FSB Federal Security Service (Russia)
GCHQ Government Communications Headquarters (UK)
GDR German Democratic Republic (former East Germany)
GISS General Intelligence and Security Service (Netherlands)
GRU Main Intelligence Directorate (military intelligence – Russia)
HUMINT human intelligence
I&W indications and warnings
ICT information and communication technology
IG Inspector General
IMINT imagery intelligence
INR Bureau of Intelligence and Research (US State Department)
IPCO Investigatory Powers Commissioner’s Office (UK)
IS Intelligence Studies
ISA Intelligence Services Act 1994 (UK)
ISC Intelligence and Security Committee (UK)
ISI Inter-Services Intelligence (Pakistan)
ISIS Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (or self-styled Islamic State)
JIC Joint Intelligence Committee (UK)
JSOC Joint Special Operations Command (US)
JTAC Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (UK)
JWICS Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications System
KGB Committee of State Security (Soviet Union)
MI5 Security Service (UK)
MI6 Secret Intelligence Service (UK)
MoD Ministry of Defence (UK)
NCA National Crime Agency (UK, since 2013)
NCCL National Council for Civil Liberties (now Liberty, UK)
NCDE National Coordinator for Domestic Extremism (UK)
NCIS National Criminal Intelligence Service (UK, 1992–2005)
NCTC National Counter Terrorism Center (US)
NGA National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (US Department of Defense)
NGO nongovernmental organization
NIC National Intelligence Council (US)
NIE National Intelligence Estimate (US)
NRO National Reconnaissance Office (US Department of Defense)
NSA National Security Agency/National Security Adviser (US)
NSC National Security Council (US, UK)
NTAS National Terrorism Advisory System (US)
ODNI Office of the Director of National Intelligence (US)
OPEC Oil Producing and Exporting Countries
ORCON originator control
OSINT open source intelligence
PDB President’s Daily Brief (US)
PFLP Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine
PIRA Provisional Irish Republican Army
PKGr Parliamentary Control Panel (Germany)
PROTINT protected information
PSC private security companies
RCMP Royal Canadian Mounted Police
RUSI Royal United Services Institute (UK)
SDS Special Demonstration Squad (UK)
SIGINT signals intelligence
SIRC Security Intelligence Review Committee (Canada)
SIS Secret Intelligence Service (also known as MI6, UK)
SOCA Serious Organised Crime Agency (UK, 2005–13)
SOCMINT social media intelligence
SSCI Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (US)
SVR Foreign Intelligence Service (Russia)
TAO tailored access operations
TSDB Terrorist Screening Database (US)
UAV unmanned aerial vehicle
UDA Ulster Defence Association (UK)
UN United Nations
USSR Soviet Union
WMD weapons of mass destruction