Cover
Title Page
Editorial Board
1. Editors
List of Contributors
Note on Contributors
Foreword by Sir Terry Farrell
1. References
Preface
Acknowledgements
Book Endorsements
1 Introduction
1. 1.1 Background and context
2. 1.2 Sustainable futures in the built environment: some important definitions
3. 1.3 Futures studies in construction: an overview and critique
4. 1.4 Conceptual framework for the book
5. 1.5 Overview of book
6. References
Part 1: Sustainability and the Built Environment
1. 2 Climate Change, Resilience and the Built Environment
  1. 2.1 Introduction
  2. 2.2 Hot in the city: urbanisation and changing urban climates
  3. 2.3 Policies and guidelines in the UK relating to climate change and the built environment
  4. 2.4 Climate adaptation options: modelling tomorrow’s buildings today
  5. 2.5 New approaches: combining city growth, weather and building energy models
  6. 2.6 Prospects and challenges for constructing resilient built environments
  7. 2.7 Conclusions
  8. Acknowledgements
  9. References
2. 3 Sustainability in Real Estate Markets
  1. 3.1 Real estate and sustainability
  2. 3.2 Building environmental assessment methods
  3. 3.3 Sustainability risks
  4. 3.4 Green value
  5. 3.5 Conclusion
  6. References
3. 4 From the ‘Sustainable Community’ to Prosperous People and Places
  1. 4.1 Introduction: The ‘sustainable community’ in crisis
  2. 4.2 Sustainable communities: an ambiguous goal in an unsustainable system
  3. 4.3 Local perspectives on sustainable and prosperous communities
  4. 4.4 Connecting the future and the present
  5. 4.5 Building prosperity: re‐thinking value and innovation in the built environment
  6. 4.6 Conclusion
  7. References
4. 5 Smart and Sustainable?
  1. 5.1 Introduction
  2. 5.2 Why is thinking about cities important?
  3. 5.3 The evolution and growth of the future cities discourse: from garden cities to smart cities
  4. 5.4 Being ‘smart and sustainable’: what does it mean for a city?
  5. 5.5 Driving forces for smart and sustainable cities
  6. 5.6 Smart and sustainable cities in practice
  7. 5.7 What is the future for ‘future cities’?
  8. 5.8 Conclusions: opportunities and challenges to 2050
  9. References
5. 6 Sustainable Infrastructure
  1. 6.1 Introduction
  2. 6.2 Infrastructure policy
  3. 6.3 Key challenges
  4. 6.4 Planning for uncertainty
  5. 6.5 Infrastructure systems modelling
  6. 6.6 Analysing future infrastructure choices: examples from the energy and solid waste sectors
  7. 6.7 Critical uncertainties
  8. 6.8 Conclusions
  9. Acknowledgements
  10. References
6. 7 Sustainable Design of the Built Environment
  1. 7.1 Introduction
  2. 7.2 The social production of space, place and environment
  3. 7.3 Sustainable community
  4. 7.4 Architectural design
  5. 7.5 Impact of architectural design
  6. 7.6 Critical regionalism
  7. 7.7 Future vision case studies
  8. 7.8 The future
  9. References
Part 2: Changing Professional Practice
1. 8 Planning for Sustainability
  1. 8.1 Introduction
  2. 8.2 Sustainability and planning
  3. 8.3 Future trends and opportunities
  4. 8.4 Conclusion
  5. References
2. 9 Sustainable Construction
  1. 9.1 Introduction
  2. 9.2 Our common future
  3. 9.3 Systems thinking for sustainability
  4. 9.4 Meanwhile back in the UK construction sector
  5. 9.5 Modernisation of the construction sector
  6. 9.6 Sustainable construction as a ‘wicked’ problem
  7. 9.7 Strategy for sustainable construction
  8. 9.8 The battle lines for sustainability
  9. 9.9 Conclusions: towards 2050 and beyond
  10. References
3. 10 Sustainable Procurement
  1. 10.1 Introduction
  2. 10.2 Construction procurement and related practices
  3. 10.3 Concepts of sustainable procurement
  4. 10.4 Sustainable procurement in construction
  5. 10.5 Looking ahead to 2050: meeting key challenges
  6. 10.6 Conclusions
  7. References
4. 11 Social Media in the Built Environment
  1. 11.1 Introduction
  2. 11.2 Historic trends
  3. 11.3 Classifying social media
  4. 11.4 Future context
  5. 11.5 Future scenarios
  6. 11.6 Conclusions
  7. References
Part 3: Provocations about the Future
1. 12 Sustainability through Collaboration and Skills Development
  1. 12.1 Introduction
  2. 12.2 Complexity versus sustainability
  3. 12.3 Greenwashed change in an era of urgency
  4. 12.4 The externality of performance
  5. 12.5 Looking ahead to 2050
  6. 12.6 Conclusions
  7. References
2. 13 Built Environment Professionals as Sustainability Advocates
  1. 13.1 A view from ‘the middle’
  2. 13.2 Built environment professionals as sustainability advocates
  3. 13.3 Challenges in being a sustainability advocate
  4. 13.4 Opportunities for more effective sustainability advocacy
  5. 13.5 Personal reflections on practice
  6. 13.6 Conclusions
  7. Acknowledgements
  8. References
Part 4: Transformative Technologies and Innovation
1. 14 Energy Interactions
  1. 14.1 Introduction: energy interactions
  2. 14.2 Emerging trends with energy supply and power system challenges
  3. 14.3 Understanding energy demand
  4. 14.4 Balancing supply and demand
  5. 14.5 Characteristics of balancing options
  6. 14.6 Emerging challenges
  7. 14.7 Conclusions
  8. References
2. 15 Sustained Innovation Uptake in Construction
  1. 15.1 Introduction
  2. 15.2 Background
  3. 15.3 Central themes of innovation
  4. 15.4 Where to look at the problem from
  5. 15.5 Sustained innovation uptake through networks
  6. 15.6 Incentives for the supply network
  7. 15.7 Market networks
  8. 15.8 Summary: seeing both the wood and the trees
  9. 15.9 Concluding thoughts
  10. References
3. 16 Humanising the Digital
  1. 16.1 Introduction
  2. 16.2 Previous futures
  3. 16.3 Social appropriateness of digital technologies
  4. 16.4 Socio‐digital integration
  5. 16.5 Conclusions: the consequences for humanising the digital world
  6. References
Part 5: Conclusions and Common Themes
1. 17 Understanding and Shaping Sustainable Futures in the Built Environment to 2050
  1. 17.1 Introduction
  2. 17.2 Understanding the future
  3. 17.3 What lies ahead for the built environment? Lessons from the chapters
  4. 17.4 Shaping the future: techniques, practice and policy
  5. References
Index
End User License Agreement

List of Tables

Chapter 01
1. Table 1.1 Key issues and drivers in UK futures studies in construction (1998–2005) (Harty et al., 2007).
2. Table 1.2 Drivers of long‐term change in UK construction (CITB, 2015).
3. Table 1.3 Timelines for feedback wave cycles: digital future in construction (adapted from CIC (2014)).
Chapter 02
1. Table 2.1 UK national policy measures influencing the energy efficiency of buildings and climate change mitigation.
Chapter 04
1. Table 4.1 Sustainable prosperity: contributory factors identified in the Prosperity in East London Pilot Study (2015) © IGP.
Chapter 05
1. Table 5.1 City challenges and opportunities in the 21st century (Walt et al., 2014).
2. Table 5.2 Future cities: conceptions of success.
3. Table 5.3 Examples of BSI smart city standards.
4. Table 5.4 Sub‐dimensions to KPIs for smart and sustainable cities (ITU, 2014b).
Chapter 08
1. Table 8.1 Variable implementation of the urban village development principles in three case study areas (after Biddulph et al., 2003).
Chapter 10
1. Table 10.1 Key steps in the sustainable procurement process.
Chapter 13
1. Table 13.1 Communication techniques and potential outcomes.
Chapter 14
1. Table 14.1 Projection ranges of UK generating capacity growth.
Chapter 17
1. Table 17.1 Most commonly‐cited megatrends (adapted from Eagar et al., 2014).
2. Table 17.2 Examples of new and advanced construction materials (adapted from WEF (2016), Arup (2016) and McPartland (2016)).
3. Table 17.3 A typology of hydrogen futures (McDowall and Eames, 2006).

List of Illustrations

Chapter 01
1. Figure 1.1 Generic foresight process (Voros, 2003).
2. Figure 1.2 Examples of futures studies relating to UK construction and the built environment.
Chapter 02
1. Figure 2.1 Schematic of heat flows in a building.
2. Figure 2.2 UK dwelling types simulated during the CREW project using DTS model EnergyPlus.
3. Figure 2.3 Total number of overheating degree hours for the UK dwelling types shown in Figure 2.2. Two types of occupant behaviour are tested: daytime occupied (e.g. carers at home with children, elderly people) and daytime unoccupied (e.g. people out at work or school).
4. Figure 2.4 Comparison of overheating exposure (measured in degree hours over threshold temperature) for single adaptation interventions with the base case with no adaptations at the bottom of the chart. Example is for an end‐terraced house living room with west‐facing windows and ordered in terms of daytime unoccupied results.
5. Figure 2.5 Screenshot of the CREW project online retrofit advice toolkit.
6. Figure 2.6 A sample scatter plot from the CREW online toolkit showing overheating exposure as a function of cost for a large range of combined adaptations. Heating energy use change is indicated by marker type. The base case is the black square in the top left corner. Each point is one possible set of adaptations: in the interactive online version, the text box in the bottom left is revealed when the mouse hovers over a point.
7. Figure 2.7 London’s UHI, as simulated using the UK Met Office forecast model. Shades of grey show the difference (in degrees Kelvin) between a simulation with and without London. Contours indicate the built‐up fraction in each 1 km² model grid‐box from 0 to 1 in increments of 0.2.
Chapter 03
1. Figure 3.1 Distribution of non‐domestic EPCs (number of certificates by year) (DCLG, 2016b).
2. Figure 3.2 Distribution of domestic EPCs (number of certificates by year) (DCLG, 2016c).
Chapter 04
1. Figure 4.1 Research sites in the Prosperity in East London pilot study (2015). © IGP.
Chapter 05
1. Figure 5.1 The growth of the world’s urban population 1950–2050 (UN, 2015).
2. Figure 5.2 A smart and sustainable urban landscape (ITU, 2014a).
3. Figure 5.3 Exemplary features of a smart and sustainable city in 2050.
Chapter 06
1. Figure 6.1 Implementation structure of the general model framework; consisting of capacity and demand modules (CDAMs) for each NI sector, socio‐economic models to define possible future demographic and economic conditions, the central database, and the routines for sampling, post‐processing, and visualisation across the different infrastructure strategies.
2. Figure 6.2 Generation mix for MPI strategies.
3. Figure 6.3 Annual gas supply for MPI strategies.
4. Figure 6.4 Graph of residual waste arisings for the Yorkshire and Humberside government region. It shows the residual waste arisings for the three scenarios with four different strategies. The difference between arisings and the available capacity line is the excess waste, which will need to be disposed of to landfill or treated out of region.
5. Figure 6.5 Graph of residual waste arisings for the North‐East government region. It shows the residual waste arisings for the three scenarios with four different strategies. Data above the capacity line indicate a treatment shortfall, the excess waste from which will need to be disposed of to landfill. Where the capacity line is above the arisings line, this indicates excess capacity, which could be used to treat arisings from outside the region.
6. Figure 6.6 Graph of residual waste arisings for the South‐East government region. It shows the residual waste arisings for the three scenarios with four different strategies. The difference between arisings and the available capacity line is the excess waste, which will need to be disposed of to landfill or treated out of region.
7. Figure 6.7 Graph of recycling and composting for the Yorkshire and Humberside government region. Data are shown for the three scenarios with three different strategies.
Chapter 07
1. Figure 7.1 Elevation of Park Hill before, during and at completion of the new facade. Images depicting the building before work started, following strip out and following its reinvention.
2. Figure 7.2 Landscape masterplan showing the extent of first‐phase works at Park Hill, including landscape works to South Street Park and the central courtyard.
3. Figure 7.3 Level 12 floorplan showing the three flanks of Norwich Street completed as part of the first‐phase works.
4. Figure 7.4 Almere new town in the Netherlands as seen at night. Developed by West 8, MVRDV, WMcDonough+ partners and the Municipalities of Almere and Amsterdam.
5. Figure 7.5 The waterfront view of the Almere new town developed on reclaimed land to the east of Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Chapter 08
1. Figure 8.1 The dynamic ‘fixing’ and ‘unfixing’ of the urban village idea (after Biddulph et al., 2003).
2. Figure 8.2 Capital‐networks approach to sustainable communities.
Chapter 10
1. Figure 10.1 Procurement and the construction project process (Berry and McCarthy (2011), Fig. 1.2, p. 4). DBO, design, build and operate; PPP, public–private partnership; PFI, private finance initiative; QS, quantity surveyors.
Chapter 11
1. Figure 11.1 Social media penetration by region, 2015.
2. Figure 11.2 The social media universe.
3. Figure 11.3 Growth in worldwide crowdfunding.
4. Figure 11.4 The four pillars of the collaborative economy.
Chapter 14
1. Figure 14.1 Global investment in renewable energy. Geothermal power and ocean power omitted, as investment too low to be visible at this scale.
2. Figure 14.2 Growth in UK installed renewables capacity. Wave/tidal omitted, as capacity too low to be visible at this scale.
3. Figure 14.3 GB wind generation and electricity demand, 2015.
4. Figure 14.4 Interannual variability of wind energy, shown by annual mean capacity factor. Here ‘current’ represents a UK wind fleet as installed in 2015; ‘future’ represents a fleet with significantly greater offshore installations in line with expectations post 2025.
5. Figure 14.5 Trends in household energy demand in the UK.
6. Figure 14.6 One of the energy storage management units installed on the streets of Bracknell as part of the Ofgem funded Thames Valley Vision smart grid trial.
Chapter 15
1. Figure 15.1 Market networks of stakeholders and F1 venues since 2001 (Larsen, 2016).
Chapter 17
1. Figure 17.1 The risks‐trends interconnections map (WEF, 2017).
2. Figure 17.2 Aspirational approaches to sustainability (Hunt and Rogers, 2015b).

This edition first published 2018
© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by law. Advice on how to obtain permission to reuse material from this title is available at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.

The right of Tim Dixon, John Connaughton and Stuart Green to be identified as the authors of the editorial work has been asserted in accordance with law.

Registered Offices
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA
John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK

Editorial Office
9600 Garsington Road, Oxford, OX4 2DQ, UK

For details of our global editorial offices, customer services, and more information about Wiley products visit us at www.wiley.com.

Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats and by print‐on‐demand. Some content that appears in standard print versions of this book may not be available in other formats.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty
While the publisher and authors have used their best efforts in preparing this work, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this work and specifically disclaim all warranties, including without limitation any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives, written sales materials or promotional statements for this work. The fact that an organization, website, or product is referred to in this work as a citation and/or potential source of further information does not mean that the publisher and authors endorse the information or services the organization, website, or product may provide or recommendations it may make. This work is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a specialist where appropriate. Further, readers should be aware that websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when this work was written and when it is read. Neither the publisher nor authors shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

Library of Congress Cataloging‐in‐Publication Data

Names: Dixon, Timothy J., 1958– editor. | Connaughton, John E., editor. | Green, Stuart, 1958– editor.
Title: Sustainable futures in the built environment to 2050 : a foresight approach to construction and development / edited by Tim Dixon, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading, Stuart Green, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading, John Connaughton, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading.
Description: Hoboken : Wiley-Blackwell, 2018. | Includes bibliographical references and index. |
Identifiers: LCCN 2017033420 (print) | LCCN 2017056900 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119063803 (pdf) | ISBN 9781119063827 (epub) | ISBN 9781119063810 (paperback)
Subjects: LCSH: Sustainable development. | Construction industry–Management. | BISAC: BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Development / Sustainable Development.
Classification: LCC HC79.E5 (ebook) | LCC HC79.E5 .S8627 2018 (print) | DDC 338.4/7624–dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017033420

Cover design: Wiley
Cover image: IJland - Almere Buitendijks - seen at night, a new town in Almere, the Netherlands. © West 8, MVRDV, WMcDonough+Partners and the municipalities of Almere and Amsterdam

Editorial Board

Editors

Tim Dixon is Professor of Sustainable Futures in the Built Environment at the University of Reading (School of the Built Environment). With more than 30 years’ experience in education, training and research in the built environment, he leads the Sustainability in the Built Environment network at the University of Reading and is co‐director of the TSBE doctoral training centre (Technologies for a Sustainable Built Environment). He has co‐led major UK research council research projects on brownfield land and urban retrofit, and is currently working with local and regional partners to develop a Reading 2050 smart and sustainable city vision, which also connected with the UK BIS Future Cities Foresight Programme. Recently he has worked on funded research projects on smart cities and big data, smart and sustainable districts, and social sustainability for housebuilders. Tim is a member of the Climate Change Berkshire Group, and a member of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Smart Cities and UK Stakeholders’ Group on Smart Cities. He is also a member of the editorial boards of four leading international real‐estate journals, a member of the Advisory Board for Local Economy, a member of the review panel for Commonwealth Scholarship Commission, a mentor for the Villiers Park Educational Trust, and a member of the review panels of EPSRC and the RICS Research Paper Series. He was also a member of the international scientific committee for the national Visions and Pathways 2040 Australia project on cities. He has written more than 100 papers and books about the built environment.

John Connaughton is Head of Construction Management and Engineering and Professor of Sustainable Construction at the University of Reading (School of the Built Environment). John has worked in the construction sector for over 37 years, 30 of which have been spent in management and related consultancy. Prior to joining the University of Reading in 2012, John was a partner in Davis Langdon, one of the world’s largest construction cost and project management companies, where he has spent most of his professional career. He was head of the firm’s management consulting group from 2005 and has worked extensively on improving construction procurement and management processes. He was lead author on a range of industry guides produced by the UK Construction Industry Board following the Latham Review of UK Construction in 1994, and was one of the founding members of the UK Board of the Movement for Innovation (M4I). His involvement in sustainability in construction dates from the mid‐1980s when he was involved in the UK Department of Energy’s Passive Solar Design Studies Programme, and subsequently was responsible for the development of Davis Langdon’s Sustainability Services, with a particular focus on material resource efficiency. At the University of Reading, John is currently involved in funded research on new models of construction procurement and on energy use in office buildings. He is currently Chair of the Executive Board of the UK Construction Industry Research and Information Association.

Stuart Green is Professor of Construction Management in the School of the Built Environment at the University of Reading, UK. Stuart enjoys extensive policy connectivity within the UK construction sector and is frequently invited to contribute to industry debates. From 2007 to 2013 Stuart served as a core commissioner with the Commission for a Sustainable London 2012 which provided assurance to the Olympic Board and the public on how the delivery agencies performed against their sustainability commitments. From 2011 to 2016 he chaired the Chartered Institute of Building’s Innovation and Research Panel. Stuart has extensive experience of construction‐related research leadership and has been principal investigator on Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) research awards totalling in excess of £7.5 million. Stuart originally studied civil engineering at the University of Birmingham. Following graduation in 1979 he worked for a national contractor on a range of construction projects throughout the UK. He was subsequently seconded for a year to an engineering consultancy where he gained the necessary design experience to become a chartered engineer. Stuart returned to academia to study for a master’s degree at Heriot‐Watt University in Edinburgh, prior to joining the University of Reading as a lecturer in 1987. He completed his PhD in 1996 and was promoted to professor in 2002. While based in Reading he has travelled extensively and has held numerous international advisory and consultancy roles in a variety of different locations. He is a visiting professor at Chongqing University and Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, China.

Note on Contributors

Professor Janet F. Barlow is in the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading and does research in urban meteorology, natural ventilation and renewable energy. She was a Board member of the International Association for Urban Climate, and is currently on the Steering Committee for the UK Wind Engineering Society. She is also on the Met Office Scientific Advisory Committee.

Dr Modassar Chaudry is a Senior Research Fellow in the School of Engineering at Cardiff University. His expertise covers a range of energy topics, in particular modelling (optimisation) and analysis of gas, electricity and heating supply systems. He has co‐authored a number book chapters and journal papers on integrated energy network modelling and analysis.

Dr Phil Coker is a Lecturer in Renewable Energy in the School of the Built Environment, University of Reading. Following 15 years as an engineer in the UK gas industry, he has spent the last decade researching the impacts of variability in low‐carbon energy systems. Current projects range from helping the system operator respond to increased intermittent renewables, through assessing the system value of hydrogen to supporting development of a commercial vehicle‐to‐grid solution.

Joe Doak is Associate Professor of Urban Planning and Development at the University of Reading. He has undertaken major research into the formulation and implementation of regional, strategic and local planning policies, and was a senior planning officer at county and district levels of UK local government.

Dr Ian J. Ewart is an anthropologist and engineer, and currently Lecturer in Digital Technologies in the School of the Built Environment, University of Reading. His research focus is on the perception and application of technologies, the practices these influence, and how these inform the real, social experience of the world.

Professor Lorraine Farrelly is an architect and head of the new Architecture School at the University of Reading. The ambition for the new School is to relate the education experience to current professional practices in architecture, and to develop a collaborative education model that positions architecture within the built environment professions. She has written several books considering relationships between architecture and urban design.

Professor Andy Ford is the Director of Research at London South Bank University. He has worked extensively on innovative building throughout his career and contributed to many award‐winning designs. Andy is the founder of Fulcrum Consulting. Andy’s long‐term interest in knowledge transfer led to academia in 2013 following the sale of Fulcrum Consulting to Mott MacDonald.

Dr Aaron Gillich has a BEng in Aerospace Engineering from Carleton University, an MSc in Astronomy and Physics from St Mary’s University, and a PhD in Architecture from the University of Cambridge. He is currently a Senior Lecturer at London South Bank University. His research focuses on the energy trilemma of delivering a low‐cost, low‐carbon, secure energy system.

Professor Jim Hall is Director of the Environmental Change Institute and Professor of Climate and Environmental Risks at the University of Oxford. His research focuses on management of climate‐related risks in infrastructure systems, in particular relating to various dimensions of water security, including flooding and water scarcity. He leads the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC), which has developed the world’s first national infrastructure simulation models for appraisal of national infrastructure investment and risks. His book The Future of National Infrastructure: A System of Systems Approach was published by Cambridge University Press in 2016.

Dr Gerard Healey is a sustainable built environment practitioner with over 10 years’ experience. He has worked for design firm Arup and currently is Manager – Sustainable Campus Design for the University of Melbourne. Gerard’s PhD investigated socio‐technical transitions for sustainability and he brings this multi‐disciplinary perspective to his practice.

Adrian J. Hickford is Senior Research Assistant in the Transportation Research Group at the University of Southampton. As well as his recent work on implementing strategic change to infrastructure provision, he has been involved in a number of projects aiming to increase the use of sustainable travel, and enhanced practices of traffic accident data gathering and use.

Professor Will Hughes is Professor of Construction Management and Economics at the School of the Built Environment, University of Reading. His research is positioned in the construction sector, focusing on the business of construction in relation to contracting, management, organisation and procurement. His current research is on modelling construction procurement decisions and contributing to national and international standards drafting.

Dr Graeme D. Larsen is an Associate Professor in Construction Management and Innovation at the University of Reading. He held the position of School Director of PhD Research Studies at the School of the Built Environment for 8 years. Dr Larsen is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Building (CIOB). His research interests include innovation diffusion, networks of firms, sustainability, communication networks, innovative methods in niche markets and sports venues. Dr Larsen has secured funding for research projects with such names as Silverstone Circuits Limited, published over 30 research articles and successfully supervised a number of PhD candidates.

Professor Robert Nicholls is Professor of Coastal Engineering at the University of Southampton. His research is focused on coastal impacts and adaptation to climate change from local to global scales. More broadly, he is also interested in integrated assessment problems analysing complex systems subject to multiple drivers such as infrastructure.

Professor Gavin Parker is Professor of Planning Studies at the University of Reading, UK and for a period he was a director of the Royal Town Planning Institute (RTPI). He is a chartered town planner and researcher who has written extensively on planning, land and citizenship. His books include Key Concepts in Planning (Sage, 2012), written with Joe Doak.

Professor Li Shao is based at the School of Construction Management and Engineering at the University of Reading, UK. He is a Director of the EPSRC Engineering Doctorate Centre Technologies for Sustainable Built Environments. He specialises in building energy management and climate change adaptation, including the integration of green space in the built environment.

Dr Constance Smith is a Hallsworth Research Fellow in Social Anthropology at the University of Manchester. She works on the anthropology of urban planning and architecture. She has conducted extensive fieldwork in African cities and, more recently, on urban change and placemaking in London.

Dr Stefan Thor Smith is a Lecturer in Energy Systems and the Built Environment within the School of the Built Environment, University of Reading. His research is focused on energy use and climate within an urban context, anthropogenic influence on urban environments and resilience of city infrastructure to climate change.

Bob Thompson is a Director of Remit Consulting specialising in research and strategy, with a special interest in the impact of technological change on all aspects of real estate. Recent publications include The Building Machine (Parkside, 2014), The Role of Cloud Computing in Commercial Property (with Andrew Waller, RICS, 2011) and The Role of Social Media in Property (RICS, 2009). In total, he has produced over 250 publications across all channels since 1985.

Dr Jacopo Torriti is an Associate Professor in Energy Economics and Policy in the School of the Built Environment at the University of Reading, with previous roles at the London School of Economics, University of Surrey, European University Institute and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is author of more than 50 publications in the area of energy demand, economics and policy, including the book Peak Energy Demand and Demand Side Response, and sits on DEFRA’S Economics Advisory Panel.

Dr Martino Tran is Assistant Professor in Urban Systems at the University of British Columbia and Research Associate at the University of Oxford. He has broad interests in complexity, resilience and risk, and has published widely on modelling the performance of future technology and infrastructure. He has advised governments and industry on major infrastructure investments in energy and transport.

Dr Jorn van de Wetering is a Lecturer in Real Estate Appraisal at Real Estate & Planning in the Henley Business School at the University of Reading. He holds a PhD in Real Estate Economics. His research interests include property market adoption patterns of eco‐certification and the financial performance of environmentally and energy‐efficient office space.

Geoff Watson is a Senior Research Assistant in the Infrastructure Research Group in the Faculty of Engineering and the Environment at the University of Southampton. He is working on the modelling of future infrastructure requirements for the UK solid waste sector. He also contributed to the infrastructure chapter on the second UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. He has also been involved in research in waste mechanics and rail infrastructure.

Saffron Woodcraft is a Research Associate at the Institute for Global Prosperity at UCL. She leads the Institute’s research on developing new models and measures of sustainable local prosperity in East London. She has conducted extensive academic and applied fieldwork with communities and built environment professionals engaged in large‐scale urban development and regeneration programmes. She is a PhD candidate in anthropology at UCL, where her research focuses on London’s Olympic regeneration legacy and new communities. Saffron co‐founded of Social Life, a social enterprise established to examine how local communities are affected by urban development and regeneration.

Foreword by Sir Terry Farrell¹

In downtown Newcastle, the city where I lived during my teens and twenties, a commemorative pavement inscription honours the 19th century builder and developer Richard Grainger. The words of dedication read ‘The past is my present to your future’, which expresses the city’s gratitude to him as he knew that what we do in the present affects the quality of life for future generations. This quote echoes the 1987 Brundtland Report’s definition of sustainable development as ‘development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of the future generations to meet their own needs’ (Brundtland Report, 1987: 16). This far‐reaching report has directed and shaped sustainability agendas and goals for 30 years and is also known as Our Common Future. I feel this subtitle to be increasingly more relevant to all of us living in a globalised and interconnected world, but perhaps for the professionals working within the built environment is it particularly significant. As the report states:

‘Our Common Future is not a prediction of ever increasing environmental decay, poverty, and hardship in an ever more polluted world among ever decreasing resources. We see instead the possibility for a new era of economic growth, one that must be based on policies that sustain and expand the environmental resource base. And we believe such growth to be absolutely essential to relieve the great poverty that is deepening in much of the developing world.’ (Brundtland Report, 1987: 11)

The significance for today’s globalised and multidisciplinary built environment community of developers, architects, master planners, engineers, construction industries and occupancy managers is that collaborative work practice has become more established to a point where a range of different professionals can work together with a unified and coordinated vision of a sustainable future. Connectivity between and amongst specialist teams is an approach we valued in the government initiated Farrell Review (2014), which drew together a multidisciplinary team to consider the present and future state of British architecture and masterplanning. Described as an example of ‘futures thinking’, the Farrell Review used an approach outlined in the introductory chapter to this book of collecting input to see what was going on, analysing what seemed to be happening, interpreting what was really happening and then prospecting or recommending ideas for improvement.

The power of futures thinking may not be in the solutions we gain from horizon scanning. The micro management of potential future scenarios will not be what guarantees sustainable futures, but the connectivity, communication and creativity inherent in the cross‐connectivity of many hands and minds working together is. As an immersive practitioner, I am action‐orientated yet I am also stimulated by the evolution of my thoughts and ideas when I work across disciplines and with others from the built environment community. Like many others, I am stimulated by the cross‐fertilisation of ideas as I dip in and out of the parallel universes of academia and industry. I feel that in some ways my voice and observations can hold a valued place in these other realities and, in turn, I am energised by the work being done in other disciplines, professions and fields.

Perhaps inherent in the notion of this philosophy of futures thinking is the belief that we can still control our destiny and our dominant place in the natural world. Many great scientists and thinkers recognise that change is part of a natural order. The natural plant and animal world thrives on change and adaptation, as humankind has also done for 200,000 years. However, I return to the point of the process of working together being perhaps more of an enabler of a sustainable future than the possible tangible outcomes we strive for, as explained by John Thakara, who celebrates the value of our connectivity when we look ahead together as:

‘When change and innovation are no longer about finely crafted “visions” and the promise of a better reality described in some grand design for some future place and time. Change is more likely to happen when people re‐connect – with each other, and with the biosphere – in rich, real‐world, contexts.’ (Thakara, 2016)

What we have craved for the past 200 years is some certainty that we are going to live comfortably and forever. But, as Colin Fournier believes, is there a ‘necessary unpredictability of change’ (Fournier, 2011: 9–11) so can we think our way out of the challenges of the unknown? Despite the abundance of literature on sustainability there is little that fully captures the messy complexity of the predicaments and possibilities we face, but the efforts and skills that work towards the capture and analysis are significant as we are unified in thinking and acting upon our common future.

Cities are made by many different people, whether they are organic cities like London, ‘artificial’ cities such as Milton Keynes or cities formed under governance like Paris. Each built environment continues to evolve by incorporating and utilising technology, assessment tools, frameworks, strategies, policies, local and global economies, and the relationship of its inhabitants with their places of work, study and family. The ability to adapt and thrive is held in our propensity to think across cultures and beyond past socio‐economic models.

So, who are the built environment clients? In a world of finite resources, increasing numbers of urban and world population, climate change, food shortages, unstable global economics, volatile political governance and the mitigation of migration, one client is undeniably the future generation. The other ‘client’ is Earth’s ecosystem as we begin to embed the natural environment and resource stewardship into our built environment planning, design, build and habitation through such innovations as closed‐loop technology systems or urban greening.

Many of the fine essays in this book are a testament to biocultural knowledge, hard and soft scientific expertise, and a belief that connectivity and creativity play an ever more valuable role in reaching the 2050 carbon‐reduction targets. But maybe it is time to flip the perspective around completely and view humankind as the client of Earth’s ecosystem? As Austrian architect and artist Hunderwasser wrote in the 1970s we should behave like a good guest of nature. What is clear is that the fusion of eco‐centric social and technological innovation and activity makes sense economically, environmentally and socially. Improving the quality of urban life for ordinary people is an exciting and multifaceted task for modern‐day built environment visionaries.

References

Brundtland Commission (1987) Our Common Future: Report of the 1987 World Commission on Environment and Development. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Farrell, T. (2014) The Farrell Review of Architecture and the Built Environment. Available at: http://www.farrellreview.co.uk/ (accessed February 2017).
Fournier, C. (2011) The Legacy of Post‐Modernism, in Farrell, T. (ed.) Interiors and the Legacy of Post‐Modernism. Laurence King.
Thakara, J. (2016) Manifesto For Utopias Are Over: Cities Are Living Systems, John Thakara blog, September 19. Available at: http://thackara.com/place‐bioregion/manifesto‐for‐utopias‐are‐over‐cities‐are‐living‐systems/ (accessed February 2017).

Preface

The inspiration for this book came through our increasing realisation that there was a deficit in current thinking about how not only the built environment, but also the real estate (or property), construction and development sectors could, and should, evolve now and into the future. As we sit at the cusp of a hugely important time for the world, both environmentally and politically, it is tempting to think that just solving the short‐term problems that we face is enough to soak up and even nullify our capacity to think and act. Yet this ignores the importance of the long‐term view and thinking about the sort of world we, and our children and grand‐children, want to inhabit in 2050 and beyond. In a sense, the importance of overcoming the disconnection that exists between relatively short‐term political and planning perspectives and longer‐term environmental change has never been greater. We strongly believe that futures thinking and foresight need to be part of this movement and change in our thinking.

The construction and development sectors matter because the built environment, or the buildings and hard infrastructure we see in our cities and urban areas, matter too. In our world, both construction and real estate play a big role in contributing to carbon emissions and resource depletion, but the deployment of new technologies, the emergence of new business and financial models, and changing professional roles in the built environment are also a vital means of ensuring we use and manage the sectors to make a positive difference in achieving a sustainable future by 2050.

However, we face huge challenges in tacking these issues at scale. Although many heralded the Paris Climate Change Agreement of 2015 as a huge step forwards, as governments agreed to limit warming to well below 2 degrees, the following statistic gives us a sense of the huge challenges which still remain: based on expected GDP growth of approximately 3% each year and the requirement to stay within the 2 degrees warming target, on average countries will need to reduce their carbon intensity (tCO₂/$m GDP) by 6.5% every year from now to 2100.

To achieve this sort of reduction target requires us to mobilise action within the built environment in a concerted and orchestrated way. Thinking ‘across scales’, so we understand the lessons already learned that apply at building scale, neighbourhood level and city level, and between those scales is therefore vital to understand how the real estate and construction and development sectors need to change. Moreover, to tackle the ‘wicked’, complex and interrelated problems surrounding climate change and resource depletion we also need to think about how we can overcome the fragmented and often complex nature of the construction and real‐estate sectors. In what are essentially ‘conservative’ industry sectors, which are often criticised as lacking ‘innovation’, it is also important to understand how we need to change ourselves, and ‘walk the talk’ in client‐led advice, and in our professional and academic roles. This also means not only adopting a truly interdisciplinary‐led approach to our understanding of the future of the built environment, which interweaves a range of disciplines in a common thread of expert‐led knowledge and research, but also creating the space to produce solutions which truly are ‘sustainable’, ‘smart’ and ‘resilient’, as well as scalable.

This book also comes at a time when we have restructured our thinking in a new, overarching School of the Built Environment at the University of Reading, which brings together the long‐established Department of Construction Management and Engineering with a new Department of Architecture. The School of the Built Environment is an interdisciplinary centre of excellence in research and education with a strong orientation towards societal aspirations for a more sustainable built environment, and with strong links to other departments at the University of Reading (including Real Estate and Planning and Meteorology). Expertise in sustainability ranges across the scales from individual buildings to city‐scale urban metabolism, and our coverage includes thermal and energy simulation of buildings, the impact of urban microclimate on energy demand, indoor environment quality and green infrastructure, and our work on smart cities extends from innovation diffusion to the implications of emerging digital technologies for evolving patterns of sustainable living.

Our other, related, inspiration for this book was to develop a project which brought together the range of experts with whom we work with at University of Reading and in our new School of the Built Environment, together with other international academic experts and practitioners. The aim is to focus on a common goal: thinking about how we can transition to a sustainable built environment to 2050, what is influencing and inhibiting change to this goal, and what the future might look and feel like. This book therefore focuses on three key dimensions to future change in the built environment to 2050:

sustainability and the built environment
changing professional practice
transformative technologies and innovation.

Primarily using a foresight‐based approach, but with a more qualitative and ‘provocative’ practitioner‐based element to supplement the specific thinking on professional practice, the chapters seek to focus on both construction and development issues as key elements in the built environment to 2050. Thinking about the future in a fresh and innovative way has never been more important. As Nicholas Taleb wrote:

‘If the past, by bringing surprises, did not resemble the past previous to it (what I call the past's past), then why should our future resemble our current past?’

We hope you enjoy reading the book.

Sustainable Futures in the Built Environment to 2050

A Foresight Approach to Construction and Development