Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publishing company in the United States. With offices in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers' professional and personal knowledge and understanding.
The Wiley Finance series contains books written specifically for finance and investment professionals as well as sophisticated individual investors and their financial advisors. Book topics range from portfolio management to e-commerce, risk management, financial engineering, valuation and financial instrument analysis, as well as much more.
For a list of available titles, visit our website at www.WileyFinance.com.
This edition first published 2019
© 2019 Roman Hohl
Registered office
John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, United Kingdom
For details of our global editorial offices, for customer services and for information about how to apply for permission to reuse the copyright material in this book, please see our website at www.wiley.com.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, without the prior permission of the publisher.
Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand. Some material included with standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand. If this book refers to media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at http://booksupport.wiley.com. For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com.
Designations used by companies to distinguish their products are often claimed as trademarks. All brand names and product names used in this book are trade names, service marks, trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. The publisher is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book.
Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. It is sold on the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services and neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for damages arising herefrom. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Hohl, Roman, author.
Title: Agricultural risk transfer : from insurance to reinsurance to capital markets / Roman Marco Hohl.
Description: Chichester, West Sussex, United Kingdom : John Wiley & Sons, [2019] | Series: Wiley finance series | Includes bibliographical references and index. |
Identifiers: LCCN 2018041509 (print) | LCCN 2018042300 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119345640 (Adobe PDF) | ISBN 9781119345657 (ePub) | ISBN 9781119345633 (hardcover)
Subjects: LCSH: Agricultural insurance. | Agriculture–Risk management. | Agriculture–Finance.
Classification: LCC HG9966 (ebook) | LCC HG9966 .H64 2019 (print) | DDC 368.1/21–dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018041509
Cover Design: Wiley
Top Image: © WHYFRAME/Shutterstock,
Bottom Image: © Valentin Valkov/Shutterstock
To Mark, Sayaka and Makiko
Agriculture is an important industry segment of the global economy in terms of GDP contribution and employment, particularly in many low- and middle-income countries. At a time when population growth drives further demand for food and agricultural raw materials, and the producing sector faces supply challenges and uncertainties from potentially more natural disasters related to climate change, risk management is of ever-growing importance. As experienced in 2007/2008, and to a lesser extent in 2010, production shortfalls in key exporting countries cause immediate responses on global commodity markets and trigger food security crises for many net importers.
The agricultural insurance sector has been adapting to the increasing need for risk transfer and reached a premium volume of close to US$31 billion in 2017 – a threefold increase since 2006. While the large growth in our business allows for a better geographical diversification for global reinsurers and capital markets, it means at the same time higher exposure for specialised local insurers.
Agricultural Risk Transfer comes at the right time, when our industry is optimising covers in well-established markets and expanding in new territories where insurance penetration is low, demand is increasing but product development is challenging and requires high level of expertise. Underwriting agricultural risks has and will continue to be highly complex. Pure actuarial risk pricing methods that rely on limited historical claims data and loss proxies are not sufficient any more to quantify future loss expectations and they require catastrophe risk modelling skills. While learning by doing has largely been the main approach for all stakeholders in our industry, the systematic methods provided in this book form a common standard for risk transfer of crop, livestock, forestry and aquaculture assets in developed as well as in emerging markets.
As the theory is illustrated through comprehensive case studies from our industry, Agricultural Risk Transfer is of equal interest for (re)insurance underwriters, loss adjustors, risk assessors, corporate risk managers, actuaries, catastrophe modellers and fund managers as well as development agencies, government entities, funding and financing institutions, the agricultural supply chain and students in disciplines that relate to our industry. Agricultural Risk Transfer closes the knowledge gap between insurers and reinsurers as well as between academics and our industry. It therefore greatly supports the efforts of our professional associations to exchange experience and best practices among stakeholders in the agricultural risk transfer industry.
Arnaud de Beaucaron
President
International Association of Agricultural Production
Insurers (AIAG)
Paris, France
Dr Thomas Zacharias
President
National Crop Insurance Services (NCIS)
Overland Park, Kansas, USA
This book is written for practitioners and researchers in agricultural development, risk transfer and risk management and aims to close the knowledge gap between mature and developing agricultural markets as well as between practitioners and academia. Agricultural Risk Transfer brings together the most important concepts and methods, from the fundamentals to specific products and modelling techniques, and demonstrates their applications through case studies from the industry.
This book has been a nearly two-year project, one that started on the suggestion of the (re)insurance industry to discuss the current risk transfer theory with practical examples. Based on the encouragement from (re)insurers, international development agencies and those in academia, and given that agricultural insurance is one of the fastest growing specialty lines, I started developing an outline for Agricultural Risk Transfer.
While all chapters can be read alone, some references are made throughout the book to some of the technical chapters that define key concepts and practices. At the end of each chapter, a list of books and reports is provided for the interested reader.
Each chapter contains examples from the industry and numerical examples to highlight the main risk transfer products, which are intended to illustrate the concepts and methodologies and therefore do not suggest any particular price for the products described. To represent the growth of agricultural risk transfer by country and main types of products, I developed a detailed database for each country (2006–2017) based on market reports and in-depth discussions with leading (re)insurers and brokers.
Chapter 1 provides an overview of current trends and future constraints in the agricultural sector, which are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters for crops, livestock, aquaculture and forestry. This chapter further provides an overview of risk transfer concepts and discusses the role of risk management at farm level, for the agricultural supply chain and for government entities. As risk transfer addresses mostly market and production risks, a special emphasis is put on these risks.
Chapter 2 presents the key concepts of insurance and actuarial as well as catastrophe risk pricing, with references as to how these concepts are applied in agriculture. This chapter forms the basis for Chapter 5 (Agricultural Insurance) and links to Chapter 10 (Risk Transfer to Reinsurance).
Chapter 3 discusses the main perils for agriculture, including drought, flood, hail, frost, snow, cyclones, wildfires and epidemic livestock and aquatic diseases. The chapter includes the main risk modelling concepts, and for most perils, a list of open source data and model outputs is provided.
Chapter 4 discusses the sources and statistical techniques to address agricultural data and proxies, including climate data, satellite data for vegetation monitoring and wildfire detection, crop yield data, and livestock/aquaculture as well as forestry datasets. These concepts form the basis of most of the following chapters.
Chapter 5 reveals specific concepts as well as benefits and challenges of agricultural insurance, and it includes an overview of different products and key markets. Agricultural insurance systems and the role of the government is discussed specifically.
Chapter 6 discusses all main crop insurance products, including named-peril covers, multi-peril insurance, revenue and income covers as well as index-based insurance through area-yield, weather-, satellite- and model-driven indices.
Chapter 7 is dedicated to livestock insurance and presents standard insurance covers and extensions to business interruption and epidemic livestock diseases. Revenue insurance and index-based structures are discussed separately.
Chapter 8 introduces insurance solutions for aquaculture risks and discusses indemnity-based as well as index-based products, with a view on the main insurance structures, pricing and loss adjustment.
Chapter 9 deals with forestry insurance, with a perspective on underwriting, pricing and loss adjustment for standard coverage and extensions to carbon sequestration and firefighting expenses for governments.
Chapter 10 reveals how agricultural risks are transferred to reinsurance markets and presents the concepts of the main reinsurance structures and particularities for agriculture.
Chapter 11 shows risk transfer concepts of capital markets which are gaining in importance and includes a discussion on how insurance-linked securities are or can be used for agriculture exposure.
Many colleagues and friends from the industry and academia have helped in reviewing the book's chapters and case studies – all remaining errors are my sole responsibility. I would appreciate if readers could report errors or inconsistencies to hohlroman@gmail.com or www.agriculturalrisktransfer.com.
I would like to sincerely thank the reviewers for their very helpful comments, including Prof Robert Finger (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland), Prof Barry Barnet (University of Kentucky, USA), Prof Yui Leong (National University of Singapore, Singapore), Dr Auguste Boissonnade (Risk Management Solutions, USA), Michael Owen (Guy Carpenter, Singapore), Claudio Busarello (Swiss Re, Switzerland), Randall Reese (Allianz ART, USA), Charles Stutley (World Bank, UK), Phil Cottle (Forest Re, UK), Dan Fairweather (Willis, UK) and Dr Hervé Castella (Partner Re, Switzerland).
I am equally grateful for the contributions and reviews of different case studies from colleagues and friends in the industry and academia, including Chen Peng (PICC, China), Zhao Wei (AXA Corporate Solutions, China), Prof Long (Ministry of Agriculture, China), Dr Chutatong Charumilind (Thai General Insurance Association), MK Poddar (Agriculture Insurance Company of India), Harini Kannan and Yu Deng (Swiss Re, Singapore), Sonia Rawal (Allianz Re, Singapore), Ulziibold Yadamsuren (National University of Mongolia), SVRK Prabhakar (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan), Mani Upadhyay (AFSC, Canada), Joseph Bradonisio (Guy Carpenter, Canada), Dr Oscar Vergara (AIR Worldwide, USA), StefanoNicolini (Beach Group, USA), Gift Livata (Microensure, Malawi), Daisy Sabao (World Bank, Mozambique), Shadreck Mapfumo (IFC, South Africa), Roman Shynkarenko (Allianz, Australia), Chis Coe (Aon Benfield, UK), Dr Tom Osborne (Ironshore, UK), Julian Roberts (Willis, UK), Hansueli Lusti (Swiss Hail Insurance Company, Switzerland), Dr Olena Sosenko (Agricultural Reinsurance Specialist, Switzerland), Reto J. Schneider (Allianz Re, Switzerland), Maximilian Strobl and Dr Lambert Muhr (Munich Re, Germany), Luis Pulido (Hannover Re, Germany), Dr Juraj Balkovic (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Austria), as well as Dr Marc Wueest, Dr Hans Feyen, Peter Welten, Dr Petra Winter and Lovemore Forichi (all Swiss Re, Switzerland).
Special thanks go to Reto Zihlmann, a master student in agronomy at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, who helped me to generate most of the plots. I am also very grateful to Arnaud de Beaucaron (president of AIAG) and Dr Tom Zacharias (president of NCIS) for writing the foreword of Agricultural Risk Transfer and for all the encouragement. I wish to express my appreciation to my colleagues from the International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group), particularly Vijay Kalovakanda and Utako Saoshiro, for the understanding they showed over my limited ability to participate in field missions during the time writing the book. My sincere gratitude goes to Wiley as the publisher of Agricultural Risk Transfer and specifically, Emily Paul (project editor), Gemma Valler (commissioning editor), Gladys Ganaden (editorial executive), and Sharmila Srinivasan (production editor) for the great support and input to the manuscript.
Last but not least, special thanks go to my wife and children, who have lived with the book for two years, and to our golden retriever, who had shorter walks than usual at times.