Details

<i>Preface</i> ix <p><i>Acknowledgments</i> x</p> <p><i>About Units</i> xi</p> <p><i>Getting Started: What Do You Think?</i> xiii</p> <p><b>1 End of the Oil Era</b> 1</p> <p>Cause for Concern 1</p> <p>Hubbert's Curve 4</p> <p>The Appeal of Hubbert's Curve 10</p> <p>Hubbert's Success 11</p> <p>US Oil Dependence Since Peak Production 12</p> <p>Chapters Ahead 13</p> <p>Notes and References 13</p> <p><b>2 The Global Oil Landscape</b> 16</p> <p>Introduction 16</p> <p>Defi nitions 17</p> <p>Petroleum Composition and Energy Density 18</p> <p>Why a Barrel Is a bbl 20</p> <p>The Oil Business 20</p> <p>OPEC 23</p> <p>How Much Oil Is There? The USGS Assessment 26</p> <p>From the USGS Assessment to 2009 29</p> <p>Reserves 31</p> <p>Where Is Oil Produced? 32</p> <p>Where Is Oil Consumed? 33</p> <p>Oil Imports 35</p> <p>After Oil Is Produced 37</p> <p>Oil Production Versus Consumption 38</p> <p>Oil Quality 40</p> <p>Oil Pricing by Quality 40</p> <p>Gasoline 41</p> <p>What Determines the Price of Gasoline at the Pump? 41</p> <p>The Price of Gasoline 44</p> <p>Gasoline Price Elasticity: What Happens When the Price Goes Up (or Down)? 45</p> <p>Gasoline Price Variability 47</p> <p>Points to Take Away 49</p> <p>Notes and References 51</p> <p><b>3 The Historical Resource Depletion Debate</b> 58</p> <p>The Malthusian Doctrine 58</p> <p>The Limits to Growth 59</p> <p>The Oil Panics of 1916 and 1918 62</p> <p>Panic Revisited: The Oil Crisis of the 1970s 63</p> <p>Arguments Supporting Global Oil Depletion 65</p> <p>Declining Oil Production in Countries in Addition to That in the US 65</p> <p>Production Exceeds Discoveries 66</p> <p>Reserve and Endowment Estimates are Inflated 67</p> <p>Industry Exaggeration of Reserves 69</p> <p>Fewer Giant Fields Discovered and Production is Declining 70</p> <p>Decline in Discovery and Oil Drilling Suggests Onset of Production Decline 72</p> <p>Global Industrial Development and Oil Consumption 74</p> <p>The Price of Oil is Increasing: Does This Indicate Scarcity? 77</p> <p>Forecasts Support a Decline in Global Production Using Extensions to Hubbert's Approach 80</p> <p>Summary 81</p> <p>Notes and References 82</p> <p><b>4 Counter-Arguments to Imminent Global Oil Depletion</b> 87</p> <p>Myth I: Hubbert's Predicted Production Rates Were Accurate 87</p> <p>US Oil Production 88</p> <p>The Bell-Shaped Curve 93</p> <p>US Natural Gas Production 95</p> <p>Global Oil Production 95</p> <p>Myth II: A Decline in Production Necessarily Indicates Scarcity 98</p> <p>Commodity Scarcity 98</p> <p>Generalizing the Debate: Resource Economists versus Neo-Malthusians 103</p> <p>Back to Oil 110</p> <p>Scarcity Rent 116</p> <p>Myth III: Resource Assessments Provide Useful Endowment Estimates 118</p> <p>The Missing Mass Balance 123</p> <p>Counter-Argument to OPEC and Industry Exaggeration of Reserves 124</p> <p>Myth IV: After So Much Exploration, There Is Little Oil Left To Be Found 126</p> <p>US Oil: Reserves 126</p> <p>US Oil: Discoveries 128</p> <p>Global Oil: Reserves 132</p> <p>Global Oil: Discoveries 138</p> <p>Russian and Global Arctic Oil 144</p> <p>Myth V: The World Cannot Afford Increases in Oil Use as Developing Nations Demand More Oil 146</p> <p>Future Demand of Developing Nations 146</p> <p>Oil Expenditures in the World Economy 153</p> <p>Myth VI: There Are No Substitutes for Oil 156</p> <p>The Gold Resource Pyramid 156</p> <p>The Oil Resource Pyramid 160</p> <p>The US and Global Oil Resource Pyramids 161</p> <p>Three Unconventional Oil Substitutes 165</p> <p>US heavy oil 165</p> <p>Global heavy oil 166</p> <p>US oil sands 168</p> <p>Global oil sands 168</p> <p>US oil shale 170</p> <p>Global oil shale 172</p> <p>Fossil Fuel Conversion: The Role of Gas and Coal 173</p> <p>The Importance of Diesel 175</p> <p>Synthetic Fuel from Coal and Natural Gas 175</p> <p>Natural Gas Resources 177</p> <p>Coal Resources 180</p> <p>Chapter Summary 181</p> <p>Notes and References 183</p> <p><b>5 Beyond Panic</b> 195</p> <p>The Non-Renewable Resource Model 195</p> <p>Where Is an Effi ciency Gain Possible? 196</p> <p>Will Increases in Effi ciency Indeed Reduce Demand? 199</p> <p>Two scenarios for developing nations 204</p> <p>What Might Ultimately Substitute for Oil? 207</p> <p>Consideration 1: Cost of dependence on imported oil 208</p> <p>Consideration 2: Gasoline and atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions 209</p> <p>Consideration 3: Alternatives 210</p> <p>Ethanol 211</p> <p>Biodiesel 212</p> <p>Leapfrogging to an ultimate substitute 213</p> <p>Effects of a US move to oil alternatives 215</p> <p>The State of Oil Resources 219</p> <p>Ending Thoughts 221</p> <p>Notes and References 225</p> <p><i>Index</i> 231</p>

"He writes so from a position of strength having spent years analysing industry data and I find it difficult not to be swayed by the force of his honest arguments." (Oilholics Synonymous Report, September 2010)<br /> <br /> It is a book serious students of the world oil market should read, not because Gorelick has all the answers but because his account is well reasoned, well informed, and argued honestly, with respect for responsible opposing viewpoints." (<i>David Lloyd Greene, Science, May 2010)</i>  <p>"The book is a refreshing and methodical expose´ of the most common myths about oil that many of us hold as truths. Gorelick weaves an intriguing story from what might have been a dreadfully boring, yet impressive collection of data and observations. It was a pleasure to read and learn from this book, which I highly recommend to experts and  non-experts alike, particularly our leaders in government." (<i>Kenneth E. Peters, Geofluids, 2010)</i></p> <p>"In all my years as a journalist who has written on oil and  follows the crude markets closely, I feel this book is the most engaging, detailed and well written one that I have come across in its genre. I am happy to recommend it to commodities professionals, economists, students and just about anyone interested in reading up on the oil depletion debate." (<i>Gaurav Sharma, Infrastructure Journal 2010)</i></p> <p>"Professor Gorelick’s book is a valuable contribution to the debate about peak oil and could profitably be read by anybody requiring a pathway through the economic and political smokescreens which have grown up around the topic." (<i>Geo Expro, September 2010)</i></p>

<b>Steven M. Gorelick</b> holds the Cyrus Fisher Tolman Professorship in the School of Earth Sciences at Stanford University, where he has been on the faculty for over 20 years. In 2005, he was named a Guggenheim Fellow for his study of global oil depletion. Professor Gorelick is a Fellow of both the American Geophysical Union and Geological Society of America, and he has been selected twice as a Fulbright Senior Scholar (1997 and 2008) for studies of water resources issues in Australia.

Is the world running out of oil?" This book analyzes predictions of global oil depletion in the context of science, history, and economics. There has been continuing alarm about the imminent exhaustion of earth's non-renewable resources. Yet, the world has never run out of any significant, globally traded, non-renewable resource. Is the world finally facing a non-renewable resource depletion catastrophe, or is the current concern just another one of a succession of panics? In this book, key assumptions underlying arguments in the global oil-depletion debate are first summarized and then challenged. Facts about oil supply, production, and consumption are made accessible using concise and simple graphics. Concepts of resource depletion, end-use needs, technology leap-frogging, efficiency, and substitution are used to evaluate historical patterns of exploitation of non-renewable resources and to explore what history suggests about our future dependence on oil. This book is aimed at a broad range of readers,from undergraduate students studying resource science and economics to anyone interested in understanding the context of the controversy over global oil depletion.

"The book is a refreshing and methodical expose´ of the most common myths about oil that many of us hold as truths. Gorelick weaves an intriguing story from what might have been a dreadfully boring, yet impressive collection of data and observations. It was a pleasure to read and learn from this book, which I highly recommend to experts and  non-experts alike, particularly our leaders in government." <p><i>Kenneth E. Peters, Geofluids, 2010</i></p> <p>"It is a book serious students of the world oil market should read, not because Gorelick has all the answers but because his account is well reasoned, well informed, and argued honestly, with respect for responsible opposing viewpoints."</p> <p><i>David Lloyd Greene, Science, May 2010</i></p> <p>"This is a wonderful book, not only full of information, but with the clear stamp of the patient teacher who above all wants his reader to understand.  I hope it makes its way into the halls of Congress."</p> <p><i>Garrison Sposito, Professor, Betty and Isaac Barshad Chair, Environmental Science, UC Berkeley</i></p> <p>"Are we running out of oil or do we have plenty of this resource? Will<br /> the oil age end before we run out of oil? Have we reached the maximum<br /> daily production rate of oil or are we already on the down slide?<br /> Professor Gorelick has compiled the necessary data and provided his own<br /> incisive analysis to assist the reader in understanding the complex<br /> issues related to the supply and demand hydrocarbons. A must read for an understanding of both the domestic and global energy picture."<br /> <i>Professor Khalid Aziz, Department of Energy Resources Engineering at Stanford</i><br /> <br /> "The dynamics around oil have shaped our lives for many decades and will do so for many decades to come. Surprisingly, many misconceptions exist around the extent and availability of this fundamental resource. This<br /> book is a lucid compilation of facts which is a must-read for anyone<br /> interested in energy and the environment."<br /> <i>Ashok Belani, Chief Technology Officer of Schlumberger Limited</i></p> <p> ”It is a pleasure to read an informed, balanced, and lively account of the prospect of meeting the world's need for oil in coming years. A combination of sound economics, attention to history's lessons, and political leadership offer the way forward. Read this book and decide what you should do."<br /> <i>John Deutch, Institute Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, former Director of Central Intelligence.</i></p> <p>“A very readable statistical history of global oil depletion that frames and illuminates the century-old debate about “peak oil” or the “end of oil.” A suitable text for introductory resource economics or for the general reader with a love for facts and detail.”<br /> <i>Sylvio J Faim, Los Alamos National Laboratory</i></p>

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