<p>Preface xxiii</p> <p><b>1 Products and Markets: Equities, Commodities, Exchange Rates, Forwards and Futures 1</b></p> <p>1.1 Introduction 2</p> <p>1.2 Equities 2</p> <p>1.3 Commodities 9</p> <p>1.4 Currencies 9</p> <p>1.5 Indices 11</p> <p>1.6 The time value of money 11</p> <p>1.7 Fixed-income securities 17</p> <p>1.8 Inflation-proof bonds 17</p> <p>1.9 Forwards and futures 19</p> <p>1.10 More about futures 22</p> <p>1.11 Summary 24</p> <p><b>2 Derivatives 27</b></p> <p>2.1 Introduction 28</p> <p>2.2 Options 28</p> <p>2.3 Definition of common terms 33</p> <p>2.4 Payoff diagrams 34</p> <p>2.5 Writing options 39</p> <p>2.6 Margin 39</p> <p>2.7 Market conventions 39</p> <p>2.8 The value of the option before expiry 40</p> <p>2.9 Factors affecting derivative prices 41</p> <p>2.10 Speculation and gearing 42</p> <p>2.11 Early exercise 44</p> <p>2.12 Put-call parity 44</p> <p>2.13 Binaries or digitals 47</p> <p>2.14 Bull and bear spreads 48</p> <p>2.15 Straddles and strangles 50</p> <p>2.16 Risk reversal 52</p> <p>2.17 Butterflies and condors 53</p> <p>2.18 Calendar spreads 53</p> <p>2.19 LEAPS and FLEX 55</p> <p>2.20 Warrants 55</p> <p>2.21 Convertible bonds 55</p> <p>2.22 Over the counter options 56</p> <p>2.23 Summary 57</p> <p><b>3 The Binomial Model 59</b></p> <p>3.1 Introduction 60</p> <p>3.2 Equities can go down as well as up 61</p> <p>3.3 The option value 63</p> <p>3.4 Which part of our ‘model’ didn’t we need? 65</p> <p>3.5 Why should this ‘theoretical price’ be the ‘market price’? 65</p> <p>3.6 How did I know to sell 1 2 of the stock for hedging? 66</p> <p>3.7 How does this change if interest rates are non-zero? 67</p> <p>3.8 Is the stock itself correctly priced? 68</p> <p>3.9 Complete markets 69</p> <p>3.10 The real and risk-neutral worlds 69</p> <p>3.11 And now using symbols 73</p> <p>3.12 An equation for the value of an option 75</p> <p>3.13 Where did the probability p go? 77</p> <p>3.14 Counter-intuitive? 77</p> <p>3.15 The binomial tree 78</p> <p>3.16 The asset price distribution 78</p> <p>3.17 Valuing back down the tree 80</p> <p>3.18 Programming the binomial method 85</p> <p>3.19 The greeks 86</p> <p>3.20 Early exercise 88</p> <p>3.21 The continuous-time limit 90</p> <p>3.22 Summary 90</p> <p><b>4 The Random Behavior of Assets 95</b></p> <p>4.1 Introduction 96</p> <p>4.2 The popular forms of ‘analysis’ 96</p> <p>4.3 Why we need a model for randomness: Jensen’s inequality 97</p> <p>4.4 Similarities between equities, currencies, commodities and indices 99</p> <p>4.5 Examining returns 100</p> <p>4.6 Timescales 105</p> <p>4.7 Estimating volatility 109</p> <p>4.8 The random walk on a spreadsheet 109</p> <p>4.9 The Wiener process 111</p> <p>4.10 The widely accepted model for equities, currencies, commodities and indices 112</p> <p>4.11 Summary 115</p> <p><b>5 Elementary Stochastic Calculus 117</b></p> <p>5.1 Introduction 118</p> <p>5.2 A motivating example 118</p> <p>5.3 The Markov property 120</p> <p>5.4 The martingale property 120</p> <p>5.5 Quadratic variation 120</p> <p>5.6 Brownian motion 121</p> <p>5.7 Stochastic integration 122</p> <p>5.8 Stochastic differential equations 123</p> <p>5.9 The mean square limit 124</p> <p>5.10 Functions of stochastic variables and Itô’s lemma 124</p> <p>5.11 Interpretation of Itô’s lemma 127</p> <p>5.12 Itô and Taylor 127</p> <p>5.13 Itô in higher dimensions 130</p> <p>5.14 Some pertinent examples 130</p> <p>5.15 Summary 136</p> <p><b>6 The Black–Scholes Model 139</b></p> <p>6.1 Introduction 140</p> <p>6.2 A very special portfolio 140</p> <p>6.3 Elimination of risk: delta hedging 142</p> <p>6.4 No arbitrage 142</p> <p>6.5 The Black–Scholes equation 143</p> <p>6.6 The Black–Scholes assumptions 145</p> <p>6.7 Final conditions 146</p> <p>6.8 Options on dividend-paying equities 147</p> <p>6.9 Currency options 147</p> <p>6.10 Commodity options 148</p> <p>6.11 Expectations and Black–Scholes 148</p> <p>6.12 Some other ways of deriving the Black–Scholes equation 149</p> <p>6.13 No arbitrage in the binomial, Black–Scholes and ‘other’ worlds 150</p> <p>6.14 Forwards and futures 151</p> <p>6.15 Futures contracts 152</p> <p>6.16 Options on futures 153</p> <p>6.17 Summary 153</p> <p><b>7 Partial Differential Equations 157</b></p> <p>7.1 Introduction 158</p> <p>7.2 Putting the Black–Scholes equation into historical perspective 158</p> <p>7.3 The meaning of the terms in the Black–Scholes equation 159</p> <p>7.4 Boundary and initial/final conditions 159</p> <p>7.5 Some solution methods 160</p> <p>7.6 Similarity reductions 163</p> <p>7.7 Other analytical techniques 163</p> <p>7.8 Numerical solution 164</p> <p>7.9 Summary 164</p> <p><b>8 The Black–Scholes Formulæ and the ‘Greeks’ 169</b></p> <p>8.1 Introduction 170</p> <p>8.2 Derivation of the formulæ for calls, puts and simple digitals 170</p> <p>8.3 Delta 182</p> <p>8.4 Gamma 184</p> <p>8.5 Theta 187</p> <p>8.6 Speed 187</p> <p>8.7 Vega 188</p> <p>8.8 Rho 190</p> <p>8.9 Implied volatility 191</p> <p>8.10 A classification of hedging types 194</p> <p>8.11 Summary 196</p> <p><b>9 Overview of Volatility Modeling 203</b></p> <p>9.1 Introduction 204</p> <p>9.2 The different types of volatility 204</p> <p>9.3 Volatility estimation by statistical means 205</p> <p>9.4 Maximum likelihood estimation 211</p> <p>9.5 Skews and smiles 215</p> <p>9.6 Different approaches to modeling volatility 217</p> <p>9.7 The choices of volatility models 221</p> <p>9.8 Summary 221</p> <p><b>10 How to Delta Hedge 225</b></p> <p>10.1 Introduction 226</p> <p>10.2 What if implied and actual volatilities are different? 227</p> <p>10.3 Implied versus actual, delta hedging but using which volatility? 228</p> <p>10.4 Case 1: Hedge with actual volatility, σ 228</p> <p>10.5 Case 2: Hedge with implied volatility, ˜σ 231</p> <p>10.6 Hedging with different volatilities 235</p> <p>10.7 Pros and cons of hedging with each volatility 238</p> <p>10.8 Portfolios when hedging with implied volatility 239</p> <p>10.9 How does implied volatility behave? 241</p> <p>10.10 Summary 245</p> <p><b>11 An Introduction to Exotic and Path-dependent Options 247</b></p> <p>11.1 Introduction 248</p> <p>11.2 Option classification 248</p> <p>11.3 Time dependence 249</p> <p>11.4 Cashflows 250</p> <p>11.5 Path dependence 252</p> <p>11.6 Dimensionality 254</p> <p>11.7 The order of an option 255</p> <p>11.8 Embedded decisions 256</p> <p>11.9 Classification tables 258</p> <p>11.10 Examples of exotic options 258</p> <p>11.11 Summary of math/coding consequences 266</p> <p>11.12 Summary 267</p> <p><b>12 Multi-asset Options 271</b></p> <p>12.1 Introduction 272</p> <p>12.2 Multidimensional lognormal random walks 272</p> <p>12.3 Measuring correlations 274</p> <p>12.4 Options on many underlyings 277</p> <p>12.5 The pricing formula for European non-path-dependent options on dividend-paying assets 278</p> <p>12.6 Exchanging one asset for another: a similarity solution 278</p> <p>12.7 Two examples 280</p> <p>12.8 Realities of pricing basket options 282</p> <p>12.9 Realities of hedging basket options 283</p> <p>12.10 Correlation versus cointegration 283</p> <p>12.11 Summary 284</p> <p><b>13 Barrier Options 287</b></p> <p>13.1 Introduction 288</p> <p>13.2 Different types of barrier options 288</p> <p>13.3 Pricing methodologies 289</p> <p>13.4 Pricing barriers in the partial differential equation framework 290</p> <p>13.5 Examples 293</p> <p>13.6 Other features in barrier-style options 300</p> <p>13.7 Market practice: what volatility should I use? 302</p> <p>13.9 Summary 307</p> <p><b>14 Fixed-income Products and Analysis: Yield, Duration and Convexity 319</b></p> <p>14.1 Introduction 320</p> <p>14.2 Simple fixed-income contracts and features 320</p> <p>14.3 International bond markets 324</p> <p>14.4 Accrued interest 325</p> <p>14.5 Day-count conventions 325</p> <p>14.6 Continuously and discretely compounded interest 326</p> <p>14.7 Measures of yield 327</p> <p>14.8 The yield curve 329</p> <p>14.9 Price/yield relationship 329</p> <p>14.10 Duration 331</p> <p>14.11 Convexity 333</p> <p>14.12 An example 335</p> <p>14.13 Hedging 335</p> <p>14.14 Time-dependent interest rate 338</p> <p>14.15 Discretely paid coupons 339</p> <p>14.16 Forward rates and bootstrapping 339</p> <p>14.17 Interpolation 344</p> <p>14.18 Summary 346</p> <p><b>15 Swaps 349</b></p> <p>15.1 Introduction 350</p> <p>15.2 The vanilla interest rate swap 350</p> <p>15.3 Comparative advantage 351</p> <p>15.4 The swap curve 353</p> <p>15.5 Relationship between swaps and bonds 354</p> <p>15.6 Bootstrapping 355</p> <p>15.7 Other features of swaps contracts 356</p> <p>15.8 Other types of swap 357</p> <p>15.9 Summary 358</p> <p><b>16 One-factor Interest Rate Modeling 359</b></p> <p>16.1 Introduction 360</p> <p>16.2 Stochastic interest rates 361</p> <p>16.3 The bond pricing equation for the general model 362</p> <p>16.4 What is the market price of risk? 365</p> <p>16.5 Interpreting the market price of risk, and risk neutrality 366</p> <p>16.6 Named models 366</p> <p>16.7 Equity and FX forwards and futures when rates are stochastic 369</p> <p>16.8 Futures contracts 370</p> <p>16.9 Summary 372</p> <p><b>17 Yield Curve Fitting 373</b></p> <p>17.1 Introduction 374</p> <p>17.2 Ho & Lee 374</p> <p>17.3 The extended Vasicek model of Hull & White 375</p> <p>17.4 Yield-curve fitting: For and against 376</p> <p>17.5 Other models 380</p> <p>17.6 Summary 380</p> <p><b>18 Interest Rate Derivatives 383</b></p> <p>18.1 Introduction 384</p> <p>18.2 Callable bonds 384</p> <p>18.3 Bond options 385</p> <p>18.4 Caps and floors 389</p> <p>18.5 Range notes 392</p> <p>18.6 Swaptions, captions and floortions 392</p> <p>18.7 Spread options 394</p> <p>18.8 Index amortizing rate swaps 394</p> <p>18.9 Contracts with embedded decisions 397</p> <p>18.10 Some examples 398</p> <p>18.11 More interest rate derivatives 400</p> <p>18.12 Summary 401</p> <p><b>19 The Heath, Jarrow & Morton and Brace, Gatarek & Musiela Models 403</b></p> <p>19.1 Introduction 404</p> <p>19.2 The forward rate equation 404</p> <p>19.3 The spot rate process 404</p> <p>19.4 The market price of risk 406</p> <p>19.5 Real and risk neutral 407</p> <p>19.6 Pricing derivatives 408</p> <p>19.7 Simulations 408</p> <p>19.8 Trees 410</p> <p>19.9 The Musiela parameterization 411</p> <p>19.10 Multi-factor HJM 411</p> <p>19.11 Spreadsheet implementation 411</p> <p>19.12 A simple one-factor example: Ho & Lee 412</p> <p>19.13 Principal Component Analysis 413</p> <p>19.14 Options on equities, etc. 416</p> <p>19.15 Non-infinitesimal short rate 416</p> <p>19.16 The Brace, Gatarek & Musiela model 417</p> <p>19.17 Simulations 419</p> <p>19.18 PVing the cashflows 419</p> <p>19.19 Summary 420</p> <p><b>20 Investment Lessons from Blackjack and Gambling 423</b></p> <p>20.1 Introduction 424</p> <p>20.2 The rules of blackjack 424</p> <p>20.3 Beating the dealer 426</p> <p>20.4 The distribution of profit in blackjack 428</p> <p>20.5 The Kelly criterion 429</p> <p>20.6 Can you win at roulette? 432</p> <p>20.7 Horse race betting and no arbitrage 433</p> <p>20.8 Arbitrage 434</p> <p>20.9 How to bet 436</p> <p>20.10 Summary 438</p> <p><b>21 Portfolio Management 441</b></p> <p>21.1 Introduction 442</p> <p>21.2 Diversification 442</p> <p>21.3 Modern portfolio theory 445</p> <p>21.4 Where do I want to be on the efficient frontier? 447</p> <p>21.5 Markowitz in practice 450</p> <p>21.6 Capital Asset Pricing Model 451</p> <p>21.7 The multi-index model 454</p> <p>21.8 Cointegration 454</p> <p>21.9 Performance measurement 455</p> <p>21.10 Summary 456</p> <p><b>22 Value at Risk 459</b></p> <p>22.1 Introduction 460</p> <p>22.2 Definition of Value at Risk 460</p> <p>22.3 VaR for a single asset 461</p> <p>22.4 VaR for a portfolio 463</p> <p>22.5 VaR for derivatives 464</p> <p>22.6 Simulations 466</p> <p>22.7 Use of VaR as a performance measure 468</p> <p>22.8 Introductory Extreme Value Theory 469</p> <p>22.9 Coherence 470</p> <p>22.10 Summary 470</p> <p><b>23 Credit Risk 473</b></p> <p>23.1 Introduction 474</p> <p>23.2 The Merton model: equity as an option on a company’s assets 474</p> <p>23.3 Risky bonds 475</p> <p>23.4 Modeling the risk of default 476</p> <p>23.5 The Poisson process and the instantaneous risk of default 477</p> <p>23.6 Time-dependent intensity and the term structure of default 481</p> <p>23.7 Stochastic risk of default 482</p> <p>23.8 Positive recovery 484</p> <p>23.9 Hedging the default 485</p> <p>23.10 Credit rating 486</p> <p>23.11 A model for change of credit rating 488</p> <p>23.12 Copulas: pricing credit derivatives with many underlyings 488</p> <p>23.13 Collateralized debt obligations 490</p> <p>23.14 Summary 492</p> <p><b>24 RiskMetrics and CreditMetrics 495</b></p> <p>24.1 Introduction 496</p> <p>24.2 The RiskMetrics datasets 496</p> <p>24.3 Calculating the parameters the RiskMetrics way 496</p> <p>24.4 The CreditMetrics dataset 498</p> <p>24.5 The CreditMetrics methodology 501</p> <p>24.6 A portfolio of risky bonds 501</p> <p>24.7 CreditMetrics model outputs 502</p> <p>24.8 Summary 502</p> <p><b>25 CrashMetrics 505</b></p> <p>25.1 Introduction 506</p> <p>25.2 Why do banks go broke? 506</p> <p>25.3 Market crashes 506</p> <p>25.4 CrashMetrics 507</p> <p>25.5 CrashMetrics for one stock 508</p> <p>25.6 Portfolio optimization and the Platinum hedge 510</p> <p>25.7 The multi-asset/single-index model 511</p> <p>25.8 Portfolio optimization and the Platinum hedge in the multi-asset model 519</p> <p>25.9 The multi-index model 520</p> <p>25.10 Incorporating time value 521</p> <p>25.11 Margin calls and margin hedging 522</p> <p>25.12 Counterparty risk 524</p> <p>25.13 Simple extensions to CrashMetrics 524</p> <p>25.14 The CrashMetrics Index (CMI) 525</p> <p>25.15 Summary 526</p> <p><b>26 Derivatives **** Ups 527</b></p> <p>26.1 Introduction 528</p> <p>26.2 Orange County 528</p> <p>26.3 Proctor and Gamble 529</p> <p>26.4 Metallgesellschaft 532</p> <p>26.5 Gibson Greetings 533</p> <p>26.6 Barings 536</p> <p>26.7 Long-Term Capital Management 537</p> <p>26.8 Summary 540</p> <p><b>27 Overview of Numerical Methods 541</b></p> <p>27.1 Introduction 542</p> <p>27.2 Finite-difference methods 542</p> <p>27.3 Monte Carlo methods 544</p> <p>27.4 Numerical integration 546</p> <p>27.5 Summary 547</p> <p><b>28 Finite-difference Methods for One-factor Models 549</b></p> <p>28.1 Introduction 550</p> <p>28.2 Grids 550</p> <p>28.3 Differentiation using the grid 553</p> <p>28.4 Approximating θ 553</p> <p>28.5 Approximating � 554</p> <p>28.6 Approximating Ɣ 557</p> <p>28.7 Example 557</p> <p>28.8 Bilinear interpolation 558</p> <p>28.9 Final conditions and payoffs 559</p> <p>28.10 Boundary conditions 560</p> <p>28.11 The explicit finite-difference method 562</p> <p>28.12 The Code #1: European option 567</p> <p>28.13 The Code #2: American exercise 571</p> <p>28.14 The Code #3: 2-D output 573</p> <p>28.15 Upwind differencing 575</p> <p>28.16 Summary 578</p> <p><b>29 Monte Carlo Simulation 581</b></p> <p>29.1 Introduction 582</p> <p>29.2 Relationship between derivative values and simulations: equities, indices, currencies, commodities 582</p> <p>29.3 Generating paths 583</p> <p>29.4 Lognormal underlying, no path dependency 584</p> <p>29.5 Advantages of Monte Carlo simulation 585</p> <p>29.6 Using random numbers 586</p> <p>29.7 Generating Normal variables 587</p> <p>29.8 Real versus risk neutral, speculation versus hedging 588</p> <p>29.9 Interest rate products 590</p> <p>29.10 Calculating the greeks 593</p> <p>29.11 Higher dimensions: Cholesky factorization 594</p> <p>29.12 Calculation time 596</p> <p>29.13 Speeding up convergence 596</p> <p>29.14 Pros and cons of Monte Carlo simulations 598</p> <p>29.15 American options 598</p> <p>29.16 Longstaff & Schwartz regression approach for American options 599</p> <p>29.17 Basis functions 603</p> <p>29.18 Summary 603</p> <p><b>30 Numerical Integration 605</b></p> <p>30.1 Introduction 606</p> <p>30.2 Regular grid 606</p> <p>30.3 Basic Monte Carlo integration 607</p> <p>30.4 Low-discrepancy sequences 609</p> <p>30.5 Advanced techniques 613</p> <p>30.6 Summary 614</p> <p>A All the Math You Need .and No More (An Executive Summary) 617</p> <p>A. 1 Introduction 618</p> <p>A. 2 e 618</p> <p>A. 3 log 618</p> <p>A. 4 Differentiation and Taylor series 620</p> <p>A. 5 Differential equations 623</p> <p>A. 6 Mean, standard deviation and distributions 623</p> <p>A. 7 Summary 626</p> <p>B Forecasting the Markets? A Small Digression 627</p> <p>B. 1 Introduction 628</p> <p>B. 2 Technical analysis 628</p> <p>B. 3 Wave theory 637</p> <p>B. 4 Other analytics 638</p> <p>B. 5 Market microstructure modeling 640</p> <p>B. 6 Crisis prediction 641</p> <p>B. 7 Summary 641</p> <p>C A Trading Game 643</p> <p>C. 1 Introduction 643</p> <p>C. 2 Aims 643</p> <p>C. 3 Object of the game 643</p> <p>C. 4 Rules of the game 643</p> <p>C. 5 Notes 644</p> <p>C. 6 How to fill in your trading sheet 645</p> <p>D Contents of CD accompanying Paul Wilmott Introduces Quantitative Finance, second edition 649</p> <p>E What you get if (when) you upgrade to PWOQF2 653</p> <p>Bibliography 659</p> <p>Index 683</p>