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<p>Illustrations ix</p> <p>Preface xiii</p> <p>Acknowledgments xxi</p> <p><b>PART ONE FROM BEDOUIN TO BOURGEOISIE 1</b></p> <p>1 The Birth of a Nation 5</p> <p>2 The History of Major Saudi Arabian Oil Discoveries 23</p> <p>3 Saudi Arabia's Road to Oil Market Dominance 43</p> <p>4 The Veil of Secrecy over Saudi Oil Reserves and Production 69</p> <p><b>PART TWO THE EBBING OF THE SAUDI OIL BOUNTY 99</b></p> <p>5 Saudi Aramco 101</p> <p>6 Oil Is Not Just Another Commodity 129</p> <p><b>PART THREE GIANTS AT THE TIPPING POINT 149</b></p> <p>7 Ghawar, the King of Oilfields 151</p> <p>8 The Second-Tier Oilfields 181</p> <p>9 The Best of the Rest 199</p> <p>10 Coming Up Empty in New Exploration 231</p> <p>11 Turning to Natural Gas 245</p> <p><b>PART FOUR TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT 261</b></p> <p>12 Saudi Oil Reserves Claims in Doubt 265</p> <p>13 Facing the Inevitable 281</p> <p>14 Reading Between the Lines of the Latest News from Aramco 309</p> <p>15 Aramco Invokes "Fuzzy Logic" to Manage the Future of Saudi Oil 325</p> <p>16 In Search of Crisper Truths among the Confident Saudi Claims 333</p> <p>17 Aftermath 341</p> <p>Appendix A Methodology 355</p> <p>Appendix B Supporting Technical Data 365</p> <p>Appendix C The 1974 and 1979 Senate Hearings 377</p> <p>Notes 385</p> <p>Bibliography 391</p> <p>Index 409</p>

<p>"Those who follow with their own tales of imminent economic collapse struggle to emerge from [Simmons'] shadow." (<i>Spectator Business,</i> October, 2008)</p> <p>"...this is an important book and worth reading" (<i>The Royal Society for Asian Affairs</i>, April 2006)</p> <p>"The author...is clearly an expert in his field.... I recommend anybody in the financial markets read this book." (<i>Financial Engineering News</i>, October 2006)</p>

<b>MATTHEW R. SIMMONS</b> is Chairman of Simmons & Company International, a Houston-based investment bank that specializes in the energy industry. He now focuses on research, writing, and speaking engagements. Last year, he gave seventy-five speeches to a variety of groups, including energy industry conferences, university symposiums, and think tanks. Mr. Simmons is a member of the National Petroleum Council, a board member of Resources for the Future, and a Trustee of The Atlantic Council of the United States. He has an MBA from Harvard University.

<b>Praise for TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT</b> <p>"This book is likely to be the most important ever written about oil."<br /> —<b>The late Richard E. Smalley</b>, PhD, Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, 1996 Former University Professor, Gene and Norman Hackerman Professor of Chemistry, Former Professor of Physics, Rice University</p> <p>"[Simmons] effectively confronts the complacent notion that there are ample oil reserves in Saudi Arabia. <i>Twilight in the Desert</i> should provoke anyone who believes that the recent increase in oil prices reflects either a speculative bubble or short-term supply constraints."<br /> —<b>Edward L. Morse</b>, former deputy assistant secretary of state for international energy policy</p> <p>"Everyone must understand this thesis, whether you agree or not,since it may change life as we know it."<br /> —<b>Jim Rogers</b>, author of <i>Hot Commodities and Adventure Capitalist</i></p> <p>"Matt Simmons's book is a challenge to Middle Eastern oil producers to provide the world with more and better oil field data . . . If Simmons proves directionally correct, we are in for a huge and early challenge to find alternative transportation fuels."<br /> —<b>Dr. Herman Franssen</b>, President, International Energy Associates, Inc.</p> <p>"Provides much-needed transparency to a subject long hidden from public view. While all may not agree with its findings, it is the ensuing debate surely to follow that gives value to the author's efforts."<br /> —<b>Robert E. Ebel</b>, Chairman, Energy Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC</p>

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