Details

The Trader's Guide to the Euro Area

Economic Indicators, the ECB and the Euro Crisis
Bloomberg Financial 1. Aufl.

von: David J. Powell
25,99 €
Verlag:	Wiley
Format:	PDF
Veröffentl.:	14.08.2013
ISBN/EAN:	9781118440032
Sprache:	englisch
Anzahl Seiten:	216

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Beschreibungen

Titelbeschreibung

The euro area remains in a state of flux and appears to be unsustainable in its present form. The outcome of the crisis may be unknown for years and a judgement on the project’s success or failure may be out of reach for decades. In the meantime, analysts, portfolio managers and traders will still have daily, weekly, quarterly and annual benchmarks. They will have to analyze economic developments in the euro area and their impacts on financial assets. The objective of this book is to provide a framework for that analysis that is comprehensible to most financial market participants. The book begins with a focus on coincident and leading economic indicators for the euro area. The following section looks at euro-area institutions. The next chapter focuses on the euro crisis. It attempts to provide an explanation of its origins and a glimpse of the potential outcomes. In addition, the tools needed to analyze the crisis as it evolves are presented. The last sections provide information unique to the economies of Germany, France, the U.K., Switzerland, Sweden and Norway.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Acknowledgements ix CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1 CHAPTER 2 Gross Domestic Product 5 The Expenditure Approach 5 The Output Method 10 The Income Method 11 GNP vs. GDP 11 Release Schedule 12 Trend Growth 15 The Business Cycle 16 Monetary Conditions Index 19 Effects of Monetary Policy on GDP 19 Effects of the Exchange Rate on GDP 21 Exchange-Rate Defl ators 23 CHAPTER 3 Coincident Indicators 27 PMI Surveys 27 Industrial Production 31 CHAPTER 4 Leading Indicators 35 Financial Conditions Index 35 The U.S. Business Cycle 38 ZEW Survey 39 Ifo Survey 41 M1 Money Supply Growth 52 CHAPTER 5 Inflation Measures 57 Consumer Price Index 57 Producer Price Index 63 Labor Costs 65 Money Supply 68 Inflation Expectations 76 CHAPTER 6 The European Central Bank 83 Traffic Light System 86 Mandate 88 Two-Pillar Strategy 90 Monetary Policy Implementation 91 Intervention in the Currency Markets 93 Taylor Rule 95 CHAPTER 7 Other Institutions 101 Council of the European Union 101 European Parliament 102 European Commission 102 Ecofin 103 Eurogroup 103 European Council 104 CHAPTER 8 Euro Crisis 105 Origins 105 Optimal Currency Area Th eory 109 Fiscal Consolidation 111 Quantitative and Qualitative Easing 112 Government Bond Purchases 115 Measures of National Solvency 117 Target2 Balances 121 Resolution 123 Departure from the Euro Area 127 Tools for Analyzing Debt Sustainability 127 CHAPTER 9 Germany 133 Labor Market 133 Political Institutions 137 Political Parties 139 CHAPTER 10 France 143 CHAPTER 11 United Kingdom 145 The Bank of England 145 Quantitative Easing 153 GDP 155 Inflation Measures 157 House Prices 158 Political Institutions 164 CHAPTER 12 Switzerland 167 The Swiss National Bank 167 KOF Leading Indicator 168 CHAPTER 13 Sweden 171 CHAPTER 14 Norway 175 Bibliography 179 Index 197

Autorenportrait

David Powell (London, UK) is a Senior Economist at Bloomberg LP based in London where he writes the daily Bloomberg Brief on economic developments in Europe, as well as publish a weekly Bloomberg Currency Chart Book with analysis of foreign-exchange market, forecast macroeconomic variables for the euro-area and G-10 exchange rates, present views on the European economy and currencies to Bloomberg clients around the globe, write real-time analysis of European economic indicators for Bloomberg First Word, and discuss economic and financial market developments on Bloomberg TV. Prior to this David was a G-10 Currency Strategist, Vice President at Bank of America — Merrill Lynch where he forecasted G-10 FX rates with primary responsibility for Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK, presented the views of the currency strategy team to the European client base and internally, developed trade recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, contributed analytical pieces to the weekly and monthly publications of the global FX strategy group, wrote morning commentary on the currency markets and verbally delivered to the trading floor and analysed high frequency economic data for the FX traders and sales force. He holds a master's degree from the London School of Economics, where he wrote his dissertation on the creation of monetary union in Europe, and a bachelor's degree from New York University.

Unpublished endorsement

“This is an excellent compendium for both the newcomer and experienced practitioner in European financial markets. David Powell covers the ground from the basics to the intricacies of the present crisis of the euro area, and provides a trader active in these markets, in a concise way, all the necessary background information.” —Thomas Mayer, senior advisor and former chief economist, Deutsche Bank “A comprehensive, compact, easily accessible and readable book. A must-read for those who want to get an overview of trading-related aspects of the euro area.” —Klaus Wohlrabe, coordinator of the Ifo Surveys and deputy head of the Business Cycle and Survey Department, Ifo Institute “There was a time when investors in the global financial markets did not devote a lot of their attention to the monthly trends in euro-area economic indicators. The reason for that was simple - U.S. economic data was the principal driver of global financial market trends. That is clearly no longer the case. The spillover effects that the European sovereign debt crisis have had on the rest of the world have made it critically important for investors to understand the economic and political backdrops in the euro area, and to stay on top of the latest economic and financial market trends in the member countries of the monetary union. Up until now there was no easily-accessible guidebook to help investors navigate through the myriad gobs of data coming out of the euro area as a whole, and the individual member countries in particular. David Powell’s book is the first serious work to address these issues, and it is done masterfully. It provides an excellent overview of all key euro-area economic indicators of which data watchers need to stay abreast. Investors who want to stay ahead of the game will find David Powell’s book both comprehensive and accessible - clearly the most up-to-date text for those who want to get a better handle of euro-area economic and financial market trends.” —Michael Rosenberg, former head of international fixed-income research, Merrill Lynch, and former head of foreign-exchange research, Deutsche Bank