Details

The China Crisis

How China's Economic Collapse Will Lead to a Global Depression
1. Aufl.

von: James R. Gorrie
25,99 €
Verlag:	Wiley
Format:	EPUB
Veröffentl.:	08.05.2013
ISBN/EAN:	9781118470787
Sprache:	englisch
Anzahl Seiten:	304

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Beschreibungen

Titelbeschreibung

A controversial look at the impending Chinese economic collapse—the history behind it, its contemporary causes, and its dire implications for the global economy All the experts agree: the 21st century belongs to China. Given America's looming insolvency and the possibility of the collapse of the U.S. dollar, who can doubt that China is poised to take over the role of economic superpower? Written by political economist and leading financial journalist James Gorrie, this book offers a highly controversial, contrarian view of contemporary China. Drawing upon a wealth of historical and up-to-the-minute data, Gorrie makes a strong case that China, itself, is on the verge of an economic crisis of epic proportions. He explains how, caught in a recurrent boom/bust cycle that has played itself out several times over the past sixty years, China is again approaching total economic and social collapse. But with one important difference this time: they may very well take the entire global economy down with them. <ul> <li>Explores the Chinese communist party's unfortunate history of making costly and very bloody mistakes on an enormous scale</li> <li>One-by-one Gorrie analyzes those critical mistakes and explains how they may lead to economic collapse in China and global depression</li> <li>Describes Chinese "cannibal capitalism," and where its massive abuse of the country's environment, people, and arable lands is leading that country and the world economy</li> <li>Chronicles China's history of recurring economic crisis and explains why all the evidence suggests that history is about to repeat itself</li> </ul>

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Acknowledgments xi Introduction 1 Chapter 1 A World on Edge 17 What Is the Proper Context in Which to Assess China Today? 18 China’s Self-Inflicted Crises 23 Great Leap Forward or Famine? 24 Cultural Revolution or Social Cannibalism? 26 How Has Economic Integration with the Global Economy Changed China? 30 Is China Becoming the Next Superpower? 31 Trading Partner to the World 32 The World’s Manufacturer 33 An Appetite for Commodities 34 Why Does China Have “Gold Fever?” 35 What Does the Rise of Other Nations, but Especially of China, Mean for the Current Financial System? 37 Marketing the China Brand 38 Chapter 2 Does China Have a Bright and Powerful Future? 40 What’s Really behind the Great Wall? 41 Notes 44 Stability and Legitimacy: A Chinese Crisis from Within 47 What Kinds of Risks and Problems Are Typical of Unstable Nations? 48 Stability and Instability: What Are They? 49 The Source of China’s “Stability” 51 What Are the Characteristics and Effects of Instability? 52 Does Stability also Mean “Legitimacy” in China? 54 Is Legitimacy of the Government Necessary for Stability? 55 Does Communist China Have a History of Stability? 56 Does China’s Beijing Model Lead to Stability and Legitimacy? 58 Notes 59 Chapter 3 The Rising Tide of Instability 61 Has China Been Influenced by Western Ideas? 64 Sources of Rising Instability in China 66 Notes 96 Chapter 4 Is China’s Economy Sustainable? 99 The Beijing Model: The Path Forward or Cannibal Capitalism? 100 What Is the Beijing Model? 104 Is the Beijing Model Self-Sustaining? 105 Notes 141 Chapter 5: China’s Quiet Crisis: Financial and Economic Meltdown 145 A Perception of Strength 146 China’s Quality of GDP 148 A Public and Private Stimulus Time Bomb 152 Development versus Economic Growth 155 How Much Was the Money Supply Expanded in China? 156 Chapter 6 Bursting Bubbles 157 How Underperforming Are the Assets and the Loans Underlying Them? 159 China’s Banks Looking for the Real Thing 161 Currency Manipulation and the Domestic Economy 164 Will the Yuan Devaluation Be Enough to Keep the Economy Going? 165 Inflation and Deflation Dangers 168 Food for Riots 169 Financial Endgame 172 Notes 174 China’s Extreme Environmental Degradation 177 Raging Environmental Crises 178 A History of Huge Mistakes 178 Hiding the Truth 183 Command Economies, Dehumanized Society, and Pollution 184 Pollution, Development, and Democracy 188 China’s Lose-Lose-Lose Proposition 190 China’s Air Pollution—Gasping For a Breath of Fresh Air 192 Bitter Water: China’s Lakes, Rivers, and Streams of Poison 194 How Bad Is the Water Pollution Situation in China? 195 Cancer Villages and Insanity 196 Why Has China’s Water Pollution Gotten So Bad? 197 Lifeless Oceans 198 A Plague Upon the Land 199 China’s Dead Zones 200 The Land of Arsenic 201 Why Is Such Pollution Tolerated? 202 CCP Land Policies Promote Abuse 203 Losing the Breadbasket 204 The Deforestation and Desertification of China 207 What Is the Real Cause of Desertification? 210 Ghosts of Famines Past 211 Notes 214 Chapter 7 Political Transition and the Breaking Point 223 Will Xi Jinping Unify the CCP? 227 Liberalization versus Stability 231 Passing the Torch: China’s New Nationalism 232 Domestic Crises for the New Leadership 237 How Will the New Chinese Leadership Navigate the Rough Waters Ahead? 240 Hell and High Water 244 Notes 244 Chapter 8 Empire Decline and Complexity Theory 247 China as an Empire 248 Hong Kong 256 Taiwan 257 China’s Uighur Problem in Xinjiang 258 The Sandals and Saffron Threat of Tibet 260 Fear and Greed in the New Leadership 262 Complexity Theory 263 Notes 270 Chapter 9 The Fall of the Red Dragon 273 China’s War with China 275 The Breakup 279 Conclusion 283 Notes 284 About the Author 285 Index 287

Autorenportrait

JAMES R. GORRIE writes on macroeconomic topics, investment strategies, and geopolitical events around the world. He has interviewed experts such as renowned economist James K. Galbraith, currency expert Craig R. Smith, and real estate master George Ross of the Trump Organization. His articles have appeared or been referenced on sites such as MSN Money, Seeking Alpha, and Yahoo! Business News. He has served as Editorial Director and Managing Editor for digital publishing firms and is also an award-winning screenwriter, filmmaker (The Indian), and novelist. James also ghostwrites for both famous and semi-famous personalities in America and abroad. Before writing professionally, James spent over eighteen years in the financial industry. He attended the University of California at Santa Barbara where he reached doctoral candidacy in international relations and comparative politics, with an area specialty in international political economy; he also holds a bachelor’s degree in economics. James lives in Austin, Texas, with his family and is busy writing for clients, his next novel, a couple of screenplays and another book.

Back cover copy

All the experts agree: the United States and EU are in rapid decline, and China is on the verge of replacing the United States as the world’s dominant superpower. It’s easy to see why that has become the consensus opinion when you consider China’s average 10% annual growth in GDP over the past decade; its position as the dominant consumer of raw commodities and number-one exporter of manufactured goods; and the trillions of dollars that nation holds in reserve currency and its role as primary lender to debt-ridden Western economies. So, are the experts right . . . will the 21st century belong to China? Or is there a darker reality than that suggested by the picture of rosy good economic health successfully sold around the world by the Chinese government’s marketing apparatus? In a book that is sure to ignite controversy among the punditocracy, in academe and at the highest levels of government, political economist and leading financial journalist James R. Gorrie, makes a compelling case that a closer, more nuanced look at the facts reveals a starkly different truth about the modern Chinese colossus: namely, that it stands upon feet of clay which, even now, are crumbling beneath it. Rather than a nation on the cusp of replacing the United States as the global superpower, Gorrie avers, China is, once again, on the path to a complete economic and social meltdown. What makes this time different though, is that, unlike past China crises, this one is likely to have a devastating impact on the entire global economy. Drawing upon a wealth of historical, demographic, statistical, and economic data, Gorrie develops a framework for understanding what’s going on inside China now, as well as that country’s future prospects, based on the seven key factors: Stability: Is China’s economic development stable, and is China’s political system capable of responding constructively to instability? Sustainability: Are China’s political and economic systems sustainable, or is the Beijing Model based entirely upon external markets and false demand driven by unsustainable debt? Dynamism: Is there a healthy dynamic between Chinese society, the means of production, and the political system, or is Chinese state capitalism a form of “cannibal capitalism”? Justice: Are massive land seizures, a caste system, forced relocations, and slave wages rapidly undermining the regime’s legitimacy? Political adaptation: Does Chinese political culture help businesses adapt to financial challenges, or does it become increasingly oppressive as wealth increases? Creativity: Do China’s economic system and political culture encourage innovation, or do they rely on theft and other forms of technology transfer, while driving its innovators out of the country? Renewability: Is the Beijing Model one that fosters renewability, or does it rashly sacrifice long-term stability and resource protection for short-term gains? A meticulously researched and well-reasoned analysis of the state of China’s political economy and the tragic, all-too-predictable missteps that will inexorably lead to that nation’s collapse, The China Crisis is must-reading for policymakers, business leaders, and every intelligent reader with an interest in world affairs.

Unpublished endorsement

“An inside look at China’s future. James R. Gorrie reveals a China that the mainstream press has failed to investigate. His conclusions, based in fact and historical reality, may change your thinking about this potential superpower, which may have overplayed its hand. A must-read in a world of global currency wars.”—Craig R. Smith, founder and Chairman of Swiss America Trading Corp., author, commentator, and monetary expert “Anyone who isn't aware of the impact China is going to have on the world over the next few years has their head stuck in the sand. From their focused attack on the US dollar to the many bubbles they've created with their unsustainable economic policies, these will cause enormous impacts upon that country with reverberations that will be felt around the world. James R. Gorrie does a fantastic job of laying out the real story of China for all of the world to see.”—John F. Carter, Founder of TradeTheMarkets.com, frequent commentator on CNBC and Bloomberg and regular contributor to SFO magazine and MSN Money