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<p>List of Contributors ix</p> <p>Preface xiii</p> <p>Acknowledgments xv</p> <p>Overview xvii</p> <p><b>Part I Origins: Navigating with Invisible Islands 1</b></p> <p>1 Conversations with Peter Schwartz and Napier Collyns 13<br /><i>Bill Sharpe</i></p> <p>2 Professional Dreamers: The Future in the Past of Scenario Planning 27<br /><i>Cynthia Selin</i></p> <p><b>Part II Scenarios In the World of Business 53</b></p> <p>3 Scenarios and Innovation 75<br /><i>Jan Verloop</i></p> <p>4 Scenarios to Develop Strategic Options: A New Interactive Role for Scenarios in Strategy 89<br /><i>Rafael Ramírez and Kees Van der Heijden</i></p> <p>5 Deepening Futures with System Structure 121<br /><i>Tony Hodgson and Bill Sharpe</i></p> <p>6 From Signals to Decisions 145<br /><i>Alexander Fink, Philip Hadridge and Gill Ringland</i></p> <p>7 When Strangers Meet: Scenarios and the Legal Profession 173<br /><i>Karim Medjad and Rafael Ramírez</i></p> <p>8 The Power of Narrative 197<br /><i>Lennart Nordfors</i></p> <p><b>Part III Scenarios In the World of Management 217</b></p> <p>9 Viewing Futures Network: Collaborative Learning and Innovation at Rabobank 235<br /><i>Paul de Ruijter</i></p> <p>10 Facilitating Scenario Development Process: Some Lessons for Facilitators 259<br /><i>Ronald Bradfield</i></p> <p>11 Appreciating the Future 279<br /><i>Tony Hodgson</i></p> <p>12 Building a Comprehensive Strategic Future Management System: A Future Map Approach 315<br /><i>Don Heathfield</i></p> <p>13 Acting on the Future 339<br /><i>Andrew Curry</i></p> <p>14 Backwards to the Future: Scenarios as Routines for Organizational Health 373<br /><i>James Tansey</i></p> <p>Concluding Remarks 391</p> <p>References 395</p> <p>Index 403</p>

"[The book] shows just how many new aspects there are to be seen."  (<i>Credit Control Journal</i>, Volume 28 #4)

<p><b><i>About the editors</i></b> <p><b>Bill Sharpe</b> is an independent researcher in science, technology and society. He was a research director at Hewlett Packard Laboratories where he led research into everyday applications of digital technology. He introduced scenario methods to HP for long-range research and business management, and pioneered the use of scenario methods for supporting business innovation. In 1999 he co-founded an innovation and consulting company, The Appliance Studio, and now specializes in long range technology studies for business strategy and public policy foresight. He has worked extensively for the UK government's Foresight Programme in areas such as Cognitive Systems, Cybertrust, and Intelligent Infrastructure. With a background in computing and psychology, he is particularly interested in drawing on leading edge research in cognition and systems thinking to find new ways of tackling complex problems. He works independently and as an associate with several leading organizations in the futures field. <p><b>Kees van der Heijden</b> is an Associate Fellow of Templeton College, University of Oxford, and a Visiting Professor at the Netherlands Business School, Nijenrode University. He is also Emeritus Professor of the University of Strathclyde Graduate School of Business, Glasgow, where he has taught General and Strategic Management since 1990. In addition, he is a co-founder of the Global Business Network. Before joining Strathclyde, he was in charge of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell, as head of the Group's Business Environment Division. This involved advising top management on strategy, as well as development of the process of scenario planning in which Shell has taken a worldwide leading role. <p>He specializes in scenario planning, strategic change and institutional strategic management processes, and has consulted widely in these areas.

<p><i>"The era of clear dangers, simple problems and predict-and-control approaches is past. Many groups and organizations are searching for more effective means to survival, continued success and strategic renewal in a context clouded by competing interests, multiple worldviews and turbulent change. As cycles of fashion in managerial practices shorten, scenario thinking and planning has endured with continued, if not increased, relevance. After over 30 years of practice, it increasingly permeates the public, private and civic sectors. Why? As various chapters of this book emphasize, this continued interest stems not from the success in building a set of alternative futures – or scenarios - per se, nor from methodological coherence. Instead, success relates to the effectiveness of scenarios as purposeful interventions aimed at organizational sense-making, innovation and development."</i> <p><b>Dr Angela Wilkinson,</b> Director of Scenario Planning and Futures Research, James Martin Institute for Science and Civilisation

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