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The Evolution of Meteorology

A Look into the Past, Present, and Future of Weather Forecasting

Kevin Anthony Teague

Nicole Gallicchio
Forecasting Consultants L.L.C

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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About the Authors

Two authors are responsible for the research and writing of this text: Mr. Kevin Anthony Teague, and Ms. Nicole Gallicchio. Both authors are BS Atmospheric Science degree holders, from the State University of New York, Stony Brook University.

Mr. Teague graduated from Stony Brook University in 2011. Along with his degree in Atmospheric Sciences, he also holds a BA in Psychology, attained from St. Joseph’s College, New York. Together with these two degrees, Mr. Teague has used his unique and well‐rounded educational background to research, analyze, and interpret meteorological processes in a very different way. The ability of Mr. Teague to then convey his knowledge in a professional yet extremely understandable manner has been what sets him apart.

Ms. Nicole Gallicchio graduated from Stony Brook University in 2012. Ms. Gallicchio has a strong education in programming, higher mathematics, as well as a degree in Atmospheric Sciences. She takes great pride in thoroughly understanding the math and science behind weather phenomena. Ms. Gallicchio has the ability to present her knowledge and expertise in a concise and quantitative way.

Together, Ms. Gallicchio and Mr. Teague founded Forecasting Consultants LLC. Forecasting Consultants LLC is a private weather forecasting and forensic company, geared toward a multitude of industries and users. Through their business, it has allowed the authors to grow and expand their knowledge base in all aspects of atmospheric science.

Preface

Meteorology, the study of weather, is a science that has been around since antiquity. Meteorology is a science that encompasses weather forecasting, climatology, atmospheric chemistry and physics, and oceanic interactions. These sciences are still being explored in great depth even though they have been studied for thousands of years. Advancements in the sciences have rapidly expanded in more recent years and are projected to continue to grow exponentially. Considering all the variables and unknowns in the atmosphere, meteorologists have become extremely accurate, with forecasts extending further out in time than ever thought possible. These forecasts are conveyed across the world and are reliable sources for many outlets. Throughout the world many different industries use weather forecasting for numerous tools and economic advances. The capabilities and possibilities that meteorology assists with far surpass many expectations, with updates to weather models, satellites, radars, and more constantly being sought after and put into use. This expansion is a relatively recent boom. Prior to computers and satellite technologies, weather forecasting was more guesswork than anything. Right up until the mid‐twentieth century, meteorology was imprecise, often displayed in comedic ways on television and radio. Today’s meteorology is nothing like 100 years ago, and that meteorology was nothing like 1000 years ago, and so on. Meteorology has gone from what was considered common knowledge that the moon and stars were signals of weather to come, and that weather was the forces of the gods, to what it is today, where weather is a quantifiable science, predicted and forecast days to months in advance with the help of computers that operate faster than the human brain. As knowledge grew and the field of meteorology was embraced, and as technological capabilities and worldwide cooperation increased, weather forecasting evolved to a daily “need” in the lives of all humankind.

This book was written to show the evolution of the field of meteorology, from its infancy in 3000 BC, through the birth of new ideas and the actual naming of the field as a science, and the technology boom, to today. This was not the original plan for this book. Originally, the authors were asked to write about extreme weather, and the scientific ideas and technology surrounding it. This subject matter cannot be fully understood without understanding of where the science was and where it is today. Upon researching the history of meteorology, it became very clear that there are very few concise single texts that show an outline of the history of the field of meteorology. The lack of resources out there led to the expanding of this text in order to include a full story of where meteorology was then to where it is now, and then not stopping there, but going into where the field is heading and what needs to be done to get the field to levels never before imagined. This book ends up being a comprehensive view of the history, but also a comprehensive view of forecasting technologies, organizations, governmental agencies, and world cooperative projects and legislation, along with a section dedicated to climate change theories and understanding, as well as extreme weather statistics and histories.

There are growing technologies in forecasting and public alerting when it comes to extreme weather. This is partially due to the increase in public knowledge of the devastation and possible threats that extreme weather poses. The cooperation between nations and companies in order to expand the reach and effectiveness of forecasts and planning when it comes to extreme weather is growing. There is a significant need to better prepare and combat weather’s potential fury and devastation. It cannot be more evident that extreme weather is a global issue, not sparing any corner of the world from its possible wrath, coming in endlessly different ways – dust, wind, heat, cold, rain, snow, ocean depth and temperature, fires, floods, etc. No one area is protected from weather and no location is protected from the threat of extreme weather. This has always been the case, and this will always be the case. What has changed is the knowledge of extreme weather events, and the technologies, theories, inventions, and education in the field to help keep life, property, and livelihoods safe and out of harm’s way as much as possible.

This book consists of five sections, starting with the ancient history of the first attempts to understand and predict weather. The book then flows into the very early birth of television, computers, and technologies useful to meteorology. The middle portion of the text consists of modern‐day technologies, up through a few years ago. At this point, the text changes from a history book to a book of research, statistics, future paths, ideas, and suggestions, with a section on climate change and extreme weather events of today and beyond. There is also a section on the overall future direction of the field of meteorology. This text paints a broad picture of many ideas, each of which could have its very own 200‐page text. It is created to help continue the debates, the expansion of ideas and knowledge, and to bring awareness to the overall path of the field of meteorology and where we may end up. The most fascinating aspect of this text is that it starts with the Ancient Babylonians and ends with the largest global agreement of any kind – the Paris Agreement.

Global research and scientific knowledge are at the forefront of expanding our understanding of meteorology and the atmospheric and oceanic sciences.

Acknowledgments

Writing this textbook was a complete honor, and we want to first off thank Justin Taberham for giving us the opportunity to be part of his series. After several weather and environmental conversations with Justin, we both seemed to have a professional connection that hopefully comes across in this text and throughout his series. We were delighted when we were first asked to be contributors to his series, and then when we were asked to author our own book we were overcome with excitement. We are both so very proud of the commitment and dedication to this project that we both showed and gave to each other.

Kevin: I greatly thank my wife Ashley for helping me cope with the stresses in all aspects of life, for helping me stay focused on all that is important, and for her never‐ending love and commitment to me. Along with Ashley, I want to thank my parents, siblings, extended family, and friends, all of whom have shown an interest in this project. You have all helped me continue to work when I was hitting a wall, as well as helping me take a breather and decompress when I was getting too absorbed.

Nicole: I want to thank my immediate family for the support that they have provided me throughout this journey, along with the continued support in my future endeavors. My dad’s relentless liveliness and my mother’s kind words of encouragement have led me here today.

Throughout the research and writing of this book, we have been in touch with some of the greatest minds in the field of meteorology. With many conversations with staff from the National Weather Service, the Met Office, the World Meteorology Organization, and various agencies around the world, we thank you for your guidance, research, data, and all‐round help in accomplishing our goals and tasks. We thank all the reviewers who took the time to read our proposal, give feedback and recommendations, and helped shape this book into what it is today. Your comments and feedback were of tremendous value. We want to thank Professor Brian Colle and Stony Brook University for providing us with a strong foundation. We also want to thank the various individuals who went above and beyond, helping us with permissions of use for images and research, especially, but not limited to: Christy Locke of UCAR, Susan Buchanan of the NWS, Rhys Gerholdt of the World Resources Institute, Markus Steuer and Jan Eichner of Munich‐MR, Dean Lockett and Abdoulaye Harou of the WMO, Ken Mylne – Chair of OPAG(DPFS) for the WMO, Chantal Dunikowski of ECMWF, Clarke Rupert of the Delaware River Basin Commission, and Dmitry Nicolsky of the Geophysical Institute‐University of Alaska Fairbanks. We also want to thank the very hard work of and great communication with Teresa Netzler at Wiley, as well as our original contacts at Wiley who have since moved on: Delia Sandford, Rachael Ballard, and Audrie Tan.

Through the work of our text and our business we look forward to continuing research and advancements in the realm of atmospheric science.

Section I
Building Blocks of Meteorology (3000 BCAD 1950)