Cover
Title Page
Preface
Acknowledgment
1 The Space and Strategy of Demographic Growth
1. 1.1 Humans and Animals
2. 1.2 Divide and Multiply
3. 1.3 Jacopo Bichi and Domenica Del Buono, Jean Guyon, and Mathurine Robin
4. 1.4 Reproduction and Survival
5. 1.5 The Space of Growth
6. 1.6 Environmental Constraints
7. 1.7 A Few Figures
8. Further Reading
2 Demographic Growth
1. 2.1 Constraint, Choice, Adaptation
2. 2.2 From Hunters to Farmers: The Neolithic Demographic Transition
3. 2.3 Black Death and Demographic Decline in Europe
4. 2.4 The Tragedy of the American Indios: Old Microbes and New Populations
5. 2.5 Africa, America, and the Slave Trade
6. 2.6 The French Canadians: A Demographic Success Story
7. 2.7 Ireland and Japan: Two Islands, Two Histories
8. 2.8 On the Threshold of the Contemporary World: China and Europe
9. Further Reading
3 Land, Labor, and Population
1. 3.1 Diminishing Returns and Demographic Growth
2. 3.2 Historical Confirmations
3. 3.3 Demographic Pressure and Economic Development
4. 3.4 More on Demographic Pressure and Development: Examples from the Stone Age to the Present Day
5. 3.5 Space, Land, and Development
6. 3.6 Population Size and Prosperity
7. 3.7 Increasing or Decreasing Returns?
8. Further Reading
4 Toward Order and Efficiency
1. 4.1 From Waste to Economy
2. 4.2 From Disorder to Order: The Lengthening of Life
3. 4.3 From High to Low Fertility
4. 4.4 European Emigration: A Unique Phenomenon
5. 4.5 A Summing Up: The Results of the Transition
6. 4.6 Theoretical Considerations on the Relationship between Demographic and Economic Growth
7. 4.7 More on the Relationship between Demographic and Economic Growth: Empirical Observations
8. Further Reading
5 The Populations of Poor Countries
1. 5.1 An Extraordinary Phase
2. 5.2 The Conditions of Survival
3. 5.3 A Brief Geography of Fertility
4. 5.4 The Conditions and Prospects for Fertility Decline and Demographic Policy
5. 5.5 India and China
6. 5.6 Fertilia and Sterilia
7. 5.7 Explaining a Paradox
8. Further Reading
6 The Future
1. 6.1 Population and Self‐Regulation
2. 6.2 The Numbers of the Future
3. 6.3 The North–South Divide and International Migration
4. 6.4 On Sustainability of Extended Survival
5. 6.5 The Moving Limits
6. 6.6 Non‐Renewable Resources and the Parable of Pauperia and Tycoonia
7. 6.7 Food for All?
8. 6.8 Space and Environment in a Smaller Planet
9. 6.9 Calculations and Values
Major Scientific Journals for Further Reading
Index
End User License Agreement

List of Tables

Chapter 01
1. Table 1.1 Population, total births, and years lived (10,000 BCE to 2000 CE).
2. Table 1.2 Estimated population density and size for a catchment territory of 314 km² in different world biomes.
3. Table 1.3 Continental populations (400 BCE to 2050 CE, millions).
Chapter 02
1. Table 2.1 Population of central Mexico (1532–1608).
2. Table 2.2 Slaves taken to America (1500–1800) and population of African origin in America (1800) (thousands).
3. Table 2.3 Comparison of the demographic behavior of French Canadian pioneers and the contemporary French population.
4. Table 2.4 French Canadian immigration and population (1608–1949).
5. Table 2.5 Populations of Ireland and Japan (seventeenth to nineteenth centuries).
6. Table 2.6 Growth of selected European populations (1600–1850).
Chapter 04
1. Table 4.1 Beginning and end, duration, and “multiplier” of the demographic transition for several countries.
2. Table 4.2 Maximum and minimum death rates (per 1,000) in France and Sweden (eighteenth to twentieth century).
3. Table 4.3 Life expectancy in several western countries (1750–2009).
4. Table 4.4 Life expectancy gains in England (1871–1951) and Italy (1881–1951), broken down by contributing causes of death.
5. Table 4.5 Population, GDP, and productivity in 16 more‐developed countries (1870 and 2000) (1990 international $).
6. Table 4.6 Average number of children per woman (TFR) for several generations in western countries (1750–1975).
7. Table 4.7 The results of the transition: Demographic indices for Italy (1881 and 1981).
8. Table 4.8 Population, number of employed, production, and productivity in the UK (1785–2000).
Chapter 05
1. Table 5.1 World population, rich and poor countries (1900–2020).
2. Table 5.2 Demographic indicators of world population (1950–2015).
3. Table 5.3 Infant and child mortality and health indices (2010–14).
4. Table 5.4 Estimtes of the burden if disease (DALYs), by region, 2000 and 2012.
5. Table 5.5 Demographic indices for India and China (1950–2020).
6. Table 5.6 Gross internal investment and population of working age, selected countries, 2014.
Chapter 06
1. Table 6.1 World and continental populations (1950–2100) according to UN estimates and projections.
2. Table 6.2 The 10 most populous countries in the world, 1950, 2000, 2050, and 2100.
3. Table 6.3 Population of world regions and selected countries, in 2010 and 2050, and the contriibution to growth of migration, fertility, mortality, and momentum.
4. Table 6.4 Net migration of world regions, by decade, 1950–2010 (millions).
5. Table 6.5 World migrant stock, 1960–2010.
6. Table 6.6 The HIV/AIDS epidemic in 2014.
7. Table 6.7 Population undernourished and Average Dietary Energy Supply Adequacy (ADESA) by major regions, 1990–92 and 2014–16.

List of Illustrations

Chapter 01
1. Figure 1.1 r strategy and K strategy.
2. Figure 1.2 The length of an organism at the time of reproduction in relation to the generation time, plotted on a logarithmic scale.
3. Figure 1.3 Growth of the French Canadian population (seventeenth century): pioneers and their children.
4. Figure 1.4 Effect on the average number of children per woman of maximum variations of the components of fertility above and below the standard (1 square = 1 birth).
5. Figure 1.5 Fertility models.
6. Figure 1.6 Survival curves for three female populations characterized by low, medium, and high life expectancy at birth.
7. Figure 1.7 Survival models.
8. Figure 1.8 Relationship between the average number of children per woman (TFR) and life expectancy (e₀) in historical and present‐day populations.
9. Figure 1.9 Relationship between rainfall and primary productivity for world biomes.
10. Figure 1.10 Relationship between annual precipitation and population density (Australian Aborigines).
11. Figure 1.11 Cycles of demographic growth.
Chapter 02
1. Figure 2.1 Failure and success of individual populations – a model.
2. Figure 2.2 Presumed demographic effects accompanying the transition from hunting and gathering to agriculture.
3. Figure 2.3 Spread of the plague in Europe, 1347–53.
Chapter 03
1. Figure 3.1 The Malthusian system of positive and preventive checks during phases of demographic expansion and decline.
2. Figure 3.2 Sienese death and grain‐price indices (sixteenth and seventeenth centuries).
3. Figure 3.3 Population and grain prices in Europe (1200–1800; 1721–45 = 100)
4. Figure 3.4 Population and real wages in England (1551–1851).
5. Figure 3.5 Real wages, life expectancy (e₀), and fertility (TFR) in England (1551–1801).
6. Figure 3.6 Population and agricultural intensification.
Chapter 04
1. Figure 4.1 The strategic space of growth for 17 European countries (nineteenth to twentieth centuries).
2. Figure 4.2 Demographic transition model.
3. Figure 4.3 Attenuation of mortality swings in Sweden (1735–1920).
4. Figure 4.4 Relationship between real GDP per capita and life expectancy (e₀) for 16 industrialized countries (1870, 1913, 1950, 1980, 2000).
5. Figure 4.5 Relationship between average age at marriage and proportion of women who have married by the end of the reproductive period for several countries; generations born toward the end of the nineteenth century.
6. Figure 4.6 Relationship between general fertility (I_f), legitimate fertility (I_g), and proportion married (I_m) in 16 European countries (1870, 1900, 1930, 1960).
7. Figure 4.7 Distribution by decade of number of provinces of Europe experiencing 10 percent decline in legitimate fertility (I_g).
8. Figure 4.8 Relationship between real GDP per capita and children per woman (TFR) in 16 industrialized countries (1870, 1913, 1950, 1980, 2000).
9. Figure 4.9 Emigration and natural growth for continental Europe.
10. Figure 4.10 Ratio of those employed in manufacturing industries to those engaged in agriculture (1870–1987): (a) United Kingdom, Belgium, Germany, France, Italy; (b) Spain, Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland.
11. Figure 4.11 Relation between life expectancy (e₀) and children per woman (TFR) in 16 European countries (1870, 1913, 1950, 1980, 2000).
12. Figure 4.12 Annual rate of increase in population and per capita GDP for 16 industrialized countries (1870–2000).
13. Figure 4.13 Changes in the increase in population compared with changes in GDP, total and per capita, 1929 prices, overlapping decades, United States (1870–1955).
Chapter 05
1. Figure 5.1 Comparison of demographic transitions: rates of increase for poor and rich populations (1700–2000).
2. Figure 5.2 Relationship between life expectancy (e₀) and average number of children per woman (TFR) for 28 large less‐developed countries (1950–5, 1980–5, and 2005–10).
3. Figure 5.3 Relationship between percentage of the population served by a sewage system and infant and child mortality in 53 less‐developed countries (2000).
4. Figure 5.4 Per capita GDP and life expectancy (e₀) in 28 less‐developed countries (1950–5, 1980–5, and 2000–5).
5. Figure 5.5 Mortality in the most malarial (Anuradhapura) and least malarial (Kalutara) zones of Sri Lanka (1930–60).
6. Figure 5.6 Model of the contributions of various factors in reducing fertility from natural to replacement levels
7. Figure 5.7 Per capita GDP and average number of children per women (TFR) in 28 less‐developed countries (1950–5, 1980–5, and 2000–5).
8. Figure 5.8 Relationship between the average number of children per woman (TFR), wanted and unwanted fertility, and contraception for 40 populations (2005–9)
9. Figure 5.9 Age structure in: (a) China and India (1950); (b) China and India (extrapolated for 2025).
10. Figure 5.10 Annual percentage increase in per capita GDP and population in 28 major less‐developed countries (1950–2000).
11. Figure 5.11 Past and future labor‐force growth in: (a) Asia; (b) sub‐Saharan Africa.
Chapter 06
1. Figure 6.1 Diffusion of AIDS during the 1970s and 1980s.
2. Figure 6.2 Per capita expenditure on health (international $) and life expectancy at birth (2002).
3. Figure 6.3 Possible modes of approach of a population to its carrying capacity.
4. Figure 6.4 Composite resources price index at constant prices, 1900–2000.
5. Figure 6.5 Cereal production, fertilizer inputs, land cultivated (1961 = 100), 1960–2010.
6. Figure 6.6 Food Price Index (1990 = 100), 1961–2010.
7. Figure 6.7 Population density and the proportion of built‐up land for residential, industrial, and commercial purposes, Europe, 2009.
8. Figure 6.8 Rural and urban world populations (1950–2025).

This sixth edition first published 2017
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Names: Livi‐Bacci, Massimo, author.
Title: A concise history of world population / Massimo Livi‐Bacci.
Other titles: Storia minima della popolazione del mondo. English
Description: Sixth edition. | Hoboken, NJ : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2017. | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2016034598 (print) | LCCN 2016047998 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119029274 (pbk.) | ISBN 9781119029298 (pdf) | ISBN 9781119029304 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Population–History.
Classification: LCC HB871 .L56513 2017 (print) | LCC HB871 (ebook) | DDC 304.6–dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016034598

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Preface

Why is the present population of the world 7 billion¹ and not several orders of magnitude greater or smaller? For thousands of years prior to the invention of agriculture the human species must have numbered a thousandth of what it does today; and there are those who maintain that our planet, given the available resources, could comfortably accommodate a population 10 times larger than it does at present. What are the factors that through the ages determined demographic growth? How is the difficult balance with resources and environment maintained? These are fairly old questions, confronted for the first time in a modern form by Malthus, who, not by accident, inspired the work of Darwin.

In the pages of this “concise history” I intend to address these fundamental questions, discussing the underlying suppositions, the proposed solutions, the points already clarified, and those still requiring investigation. The reader will find here a general discussion of demographic development and, I hope, a guide to understanding the mechanisms that, through the ages, have determined population growth, stagnation, or decline.

Since the invention of fire the human species has sought to modify the environment and enrich the resources it provides. In the very long term (millennia), humanity has grown numerically in relative harmony with available resources. Certainly the system of hunting and gathering could not have allowed the survival of many more than several million people, just as the European system of agriculture could only, with great difficulty, have supported more than the 100 million inhabitants who lived on the continent prior to the Industrial Revolution. However, in shorter spans of time (centuries or generations) this equilibrium is not so obvious, for two fundamental reasons. The first is the recurrent action of catastrophic events – epidemics, climatic, or natural disasters – which alter radically one term of the population–resources equation. The second lies in the fact that the demographic mechanisms that determine reproductive intensity, and so demographic growth, change slowly and do not “adapt” easily to rapidly evolving environmental conditions. It is frequently claimed that the human species is equipped with “self‐regulating” mechanisms that allow for the speedy reestablishment of the balance between numbers and resources. However, this is only partially true, as these mechanisms – when they do work – are imperfect (and of varying efficiency from population to population and from one age to another), so much so that entire populations have disappeared – a clear sign of the failure of all attempts at regulation.

In the following pages I devote a great deal of attention to the functioning, in various contexts and periods, of the mechanisms that determine the always precarious balance between population and resources. In order to do this I have addressed problems and topics – from biology to economics – rarely touched upon in demographic works, and so have risked losing the depth of this study for the breadth of its extension. A worthwhile risk, given the complexity of population change’s forces.

A Concise History of World Population

Preface

Note

Acknowledgment