For Ariela and Zoë, with love
Copyright © Paul Williams 2016
The right of Paul Williams to be identified as Author of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
First edition published in 2011 by Polity Press
This edition published in 2016 by Polity Press
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ISBN-13: 978-1-5095-0904-1
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1.1 List of armed conflicts in Africa for 1992
1.2 Measuring the death toll in Darfur
1.3 Deaths in selected African conflicts
1.4 Excess deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 2001–2007: International Rescue Committee (IRC) and Human Security Report Project (HSRP) estimates
1.5 Nigerian political violence compared across ACLED and UCDP
2.1 Levels of analysis in Africa's armed conflicts
4.1 Diamond-related armed conflicts in Africa, 1990–2005
5.1 Africa's secessionist conflicts, 1990–2014
8.1 Organization of African Unity peace operations, 1990–2002
8.2 Membership of the AU Peace and Security Council, 2004–2016
8.3 African Standby Force regional membership
8.4 African Standby Force design scenarios
11.1 Armed conflict and instability in the twenty African states with the lowest GNI per capita, 1990 and 2000
11.2 Armed conflict and instability in the twenty African states with the highest GNI per capita, 1990 and 2000
11.3 Armed conflict and instability in African states experiencing negative GNI per capita growth, 1980–2000
I.1 Africa 1990–1999
I.2 Africa 2000–2009
I.3 Africa 2010–2015
1.1 Number of state failure events, 1955–2014
1.2 State failure events in Africa, 1955–2014
1.3 Number of revolutionary wars, 1955–2014
1.4 Number of ethnic wars, 1955–2014
1.5 Number of genocides and politicides, 1955–2014
1.6 Number of major armed conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa, 1963–2004
1.7 Number of state-based armed conflicts in Africa, 1963–2013
1.8 Number of armed conflicts in Africa compared, 1990–2014
1.9 Sources of war deaths
1.10 Battle deaths in African conflicts, 1989–2014
1.11 One-sided violence fatalities in Africa, 1989–2013 (excluding 1994 Rwandan genocide)
1.12 International Rescue Committee estimates of trends in mortality and deaths from violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 1998–2007
1.13 UCDP-GED: state-based, non-state, and one-sided violence events in Africa, 1989–2013
1.14 Number of conflict-related events in Africa by actor, 1997–2014
1.15 Conflict events in Nigeria: ACLED and UCDP compared, 1990–2011
1.16 Total violence against civilians in Africa by perpetrator, 1997–2014
3.1 Sierra Leone: proportion of violations by perpetrator group
4.1 Relative asset deprivation, natural resources and conflict onset in Chad, 1997
4.2 Population structures in Africa's ‘fragile’ countries and the European Union
10.1 Peace Operations in Africa 1988–2014
10.2 UN peacekeepers in Africa 1990–2014
11.1 The political spectrum of humanitarians and their attitudes toward traditional operating principles
ACLED | Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project |
ACIRC | African Capacity for Immediate Response to Crises |
ACSS | Africa Centre for Strategic Studies |
ADC | Alliance Démocratique du 23 Mai 2006 pour le Changement (Mali) |
ADF | Allied Democratic Forces (Uganda) |
AFDL | Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo–Zaire |
AFISMA | African-led International Support Mission in Mali |
AFRC | Armed Forces Revolutionary Council (Sierra Leone) |
AMIB | AU Mission in Burundi |
AMIS | AU Mission in Sudan |
AMISEC | AU Mission for Support to the Elections in the Comoros |
AMISOM | AU Mission in Somalia |
APC | All People's Congress (Sierra Leone) |
APSA | African Peace and Security Architecture |
AQIM | Al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb |
ASF | African Standby Force |
ATNMC | Alliance Touareg Nord-Mali pour le Changement (Mali) |
AU | African Union |
CAR | Central African Republic |
CDF | Civil Defence Force (Sierra Leone) |
CDR | Coalition pour la Défense de la République (Rwanda) |
CEN-SAD | Community of Sahel-Saharan States |
CEWARN | Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (IGAD) |
CEWS | Continental Early Warning System (AU) |
CIJ | Coalition for International Justice |
CNDP | Congrès National pour la Défense du Peuple (DRC) |
CPA | Comprehensive Peace Agreement (Sudan, 2005) |
CPDTF | Commonwealth Police Development Task Force |
DDR | disarmament, demobilization and reintegration |
DLF | Darfur Liberation Front |
DRC | Democratic Republic of Congo |
EASF | Eastern Africa Standby Force |
ECCAS | Economic Community of Central African States |
ECOMICI | ECOWAS Mission in Côte d'Ivoire |
ECOMIL | ECOWAS Mission in Liberia |
ECOMOG | ECOWAS Monitoring Group |
ECOWARN | ECOWAS Early Warning and Response Network |
ECOWAS | Economic Community of West African States |
EIJM | Eritrean Islamic Jihad Movement |
EPLF | Eritrean People's Liberation Front |
EPRDF | Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front |
EU | European Union |
EUFOR | EU Force |
EUFOR RD | EU Reserve Deployment Force |
EUSEC | EU Security Sector Reform Mission |
FAC | Congolese Armed Forces |
FARDC | Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo (DRC) |
FDLR | Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda |
FIS | Front Islamique du Salut (Algeria) |
FLEC | Front for the Liberation of the Cabinda Enclave |
FLN | Front de Libération Nationale (Algeria) |
FN | Forces Nouvelles (Côte d'Ivoire) |
FOMUC | CEMAC Multinational Force in the Central African Republic |
GAF | Guinean Armed Forces |
GDP | gross domestic product |
GIA | Armed Islamic Group |
GIZ | German Development Agency |
GNI | gross national income |
GSPC | Group for Salafist Preaching and Combat |
HIPC | heavily indebted poor countries |
HIPPO | High-Level Independent Panel on Peace Operations |
HRW | Human Rights Watch |
HSM | Holy Spirit Movement (Uganda) |
HSR | Human Security Report |
ICC | International Criminal Court |
ICG | International Crisis Group |
ICRC | International Committee of the Red Cross |
IED | improvised explosive device |
IFI | international financial institution |
IGAD | Intergovernmental Authority on Development |
IGNU | Interim Government of National Unity (Liberia) |
IISS | International Institute for Strategic Studies (UK) |
IMF | International Monetary Fund |
IR | International Relations |
IRC | International Rescue Committee |
ISR | intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance |
JEM | Justice and Equality Movement (Sudan) |
LRA | Lord's Resistance Army (Uganda) |
LURD | Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy |
MAES | AU Electoral and Security Assistance Mission to the Comoros |
MCA | Millennium Challenge Account (US) |
MEND | Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (Nigeria) |
MFDC | Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (Senegal) |
MICOPAX | Mission for the Consolidation of Peace in Central African Republic |
MINUCI | UN Mission in Côte d'Ivoire |
MINURCA | UN Mission in the Central African Republic |
MINURCAT | UN Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad |
MINURSO | UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara |
MINUSCA | UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in CAR |
MINUSMA | UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali |
MIOC | AU Military Observer Mission in the Comoros |
MISAB | Inter-African Peace Force (Central African Republic) |
MISCA | AU Mission in Central African Republic |
MJP | Patriotic Youth Movement (Côte d'Ivoire) |
MLC | Movement for the Liberation of Congo (DRC) |
MNJ | Mouvement des Nigériens pour la Justice (Niger) |
MNJTF | Multinational Joint Task Force |
MNLA | Mouvement National de Liberation de l'Azawad |
MODEL | Movement for Democracy in Liberia |
MONUA | UN Observer Mission in Angola |
MONUC | UN Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo |
MONUSCO | UN Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo |
MOSOP | Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (Nigeria) |
MPCI | Mouvement Patriotique de Côte d'Ivoire |
MPIGO | Ivorian Movement of the Great West |
MPLA | Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola |
MRND | National Revolutionary Movement for Development (Rwanda) |
MSF | Médecins Sans Frontières |
MUJAO | Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa |
NATO | North Atlantic Treaty Organization |
NCP | National Congress Party (Sudan) |
NGO | non-governmental organization |
NIF | Neutral International Force (Rwanda) |
NLC | National Liberation Council (SPLM) |
NPFL | National Patriotic Front of Liberia |
OAU | Organization of African Unity |
ODA | overseas development assistance |
OECD | Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development |
OLF | Oromo Liberation Front (Ethiopia) |
OLMEE | OAU Liaison Mission in Ethiopia–Eritrea |
OMC | Observation and Monitoring Centre (ECOWAS) |
OMIB | UN Observer Mission in Burundi |
ONLF | Ogaden National Liberation Front (Ethiopia) |
ONUB | UN Operation in Burundi |
ONUC | UN Operation in the Congo |
ONUMOZ | UN Operation in Mozambique |
PGE | Provisional Government of Eritrea |
PITF | Political Instability Task Force (US) |
POLISARIO | Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Río de Oro (Western Sahara) |
PSC | Peace and Security Council (of the AU) |
RCD | Congolese Rally for Democracy (DRC) |
RECs | Regional Economic Communities (Africa) |
RENAMO | the Mozambican Resistance Movement |
RFDG | Rally of Democratic Forces of Guinea |
RPF | Rwandan Patriotic Front |
RUF | Revolutionary United Front (Sierra Leone) |
SAC | structural adjustment credit |
SADC | Southern African Development Community |
SADR | Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic |
SEA | sexual exploitation and abuse |
SLA | Sierra Leone Army |
SLM/A | Sudan Liberation Movement/Army |
SNM | Somali National Movement |
SPLM/A | Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army |
SRRA | Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Association |
SSR | security sector reform |
TFG | Transitional Federal Government (Somalia) |
TPLF | Tigray People's Liberation Front |
TRC | Truth and Reconciliation Commission |
TSZ | temporary security zone (Ethiopia–Eritrea) |
UAV | unmanned aerial vehicle |
UCDP | Uppsala Conflict Data Programme |
UIC | Union of Islamic Courts (Somalia) |
UK | United Kingdom |
ULIMO | United Liberation Movement of Liberia for Democracy |
UN | United Nations |
UNAMID | AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur |
UNAMIR | UN Assistance Mission for Rwanda |
UNAMSIL | UN Mission in Sierra Leone |
UNASOG | UN Aouzou Strip Observer Group |
UNAVEM | UN Angola Verification Mission |
UNCTAD | UN Conference on Trade and Development |
UNDP | UN Development Programme |
UNEP | UN Environment Programme |
UNITA | National Union for the Total Independence of Angola |
UNITAF | Unified Task Force (Somalia) |
UNMEE | UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea |
UNMIL | UN Mission in Liberia |
UNMIS | UN Mission in Sudan |
UNMISS | UN Mission in South Sudan |
UNOCI | UN Operation in Côte d'Ivoire |
UNOMIL | UN Observer Mission in Liberia |
UNOMSIL | UN Observer Mission in Sierra Leone |
UNOMUR | UN Observer Mission in Rwanda–Uganda |
UNOSOM | UN Mission in Somalia |
UNSOA | UN Support Office for AMISOM |
UPDA | Ugandan People's Democratic Army |
UPDF | Ugandan People's Defence Force |
US | United States of America |
WHO | World Health Organization |
ZANU-PF | Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front |
Since the manuscript for the first edition of this book was submitted to Polity in late 2010, Africa has experienced a significant rise in conflict events and organized violence. This fact alone made it appropriate to write a revised and updated edition. In making these revisions I have left the structure of the original book intact and instead provided updated information and added new subsections and case studies where appropriate. Five years on, I stand by my original arguments and overall conclusions. I have, however, devoted more attention to the many non-state armed conflicts afflicting the continent as well as recent developments concerning the roles of resources and religion in organized violence.
In the course of writing the first edition of this book, I accrued a number of debts and I am pleased to reiterate them here. First of all, the generosity, support and constructive criticism of two good friends, Alex Bellamy and Ian Taylor, were invaluable. Over nearly two decades Alex and I have collaborated on numerous projects, and my thinking on a whole range of issues, especially peace operations and mass atrocities, owes a great deal to his insights. He provided extensive comments on the original manuscript. It is also nearly two decades since Ian welcomed a strange PhD student into his home in South Africa, and he has been teaching me things about politics in Africa ever since. We also worked together on various projects related to Africa's international relations and I have learned a great deal in the process. Ian, too, offered suggestions about how to improve the original manuscript.
I also remain grateful to Stuart Croft, Jon Elliott, Lee Ann Fujii, Linda Melvern and Polity's two anonymous readers who provided many constructive suggestions on how to improve the original manuscript. Whatever its shortcomings, this book is definitely better because of their comments. Naturally, I am solely responsible for any remaining errors.
Many of the ideas in this book were incubated in discussions I had with the MA students who took my ‘War and Conflict in Africa’ class at the Elliott School of International Affairs. Whether or not they appreciated it at the time, I learned a great deal during our seminars. I hope they did too and that the finished product might prove useful in the important work many of them are doing related to Africa. The first edition of this book also benefited from the research assistance provided by three Elliott School students: Matthew Hughes compiled the index to the first edition, while Dmitriy Synkov provided the current version; Matthew Hickey collected documentation related to Africa's sub-regional arrangements; and Katrina Timlin located and summarized various studies relevant to the chapter on religion and provided feedback on the Introduction.
At Polity, I am pleased to acknowledge the help and advice I received from the excellent team of Nekane Tanaka Galdos and, as ever, Louise Knight, who expertly shepherded me through the publication process. Polity remains a model for what scholarly publishing should be about.
Conducting research on African issues can be expensive. While writing the first edition of this book, I was fortunate to receive financial support which facilitated travel, research assistance and relevant interviews from the UK's Economic and Research Council's New Security Challenges programme and the Elliott School of International Affairs. For the second edition, I continue to owe a debt of gratitude to the Elliott School of International Affairs, and especially its former Dean Michael E. Brown, for providing financial support for my research through the SOAR initiative.
I also want to say thank you to the many people within governments, international organizations, NGOs, academia and the general public who provided me with relevant documents or took the time to discuss with me issues of war and peace in Africa.
Finally, the love and support I receive from my wife, Ariela Blätter, continues to make everything possible. In June 2013 our little family expanded when she brought our daughter Zoë into this world. Zoë has already taught us a great deal about how to handle conflict. But she has not, yet, made it to Africa. I hope that when she does, she will be able to see a continent that has overcome the many challenges raised by wars and other forms of armed conflict.
PDW
Washington DC, August 2015