Cover page

For Ariela and Zoë, with love

Title page

Copyright page

Tables

1.1 List of armed conflicts in Africa for 1992

1.2 Measuring the death toll in Darfur

1.3 Deaths in selected African conflicts

1.4 Excess deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 2001–2007: International Rescue Committee (IRC) and Human Security Report Project (HSRP) estimates

1.5 Nigerian political violence compared across ACLED and UCDP

2.1 Levels of analysis in Africa's armed conflicts

4.1 Diamond-related armed conflicts in Africa, 1990–2005

5.1 Africa's secessionist conflicts, 1990–2014

8.1 Organization of African Unity peace operations, 1990–2002

8.2 Membership of the AU Peace and Security Council, 2004–2016

8.3 African Standby Force regional membership

8.4 African Standby Force design scenarios

11.1 Armed conflict and instability in the twenty African states with the lowest GNI per capita, 1990 and 2000

11.2 Armed conflict and instability in the twenty African states with the highest GNI per capita, 1990 and 2000

11.3 Armed conflict and instability in African states experiencing negative GNI per capita growth, 1980–2000

Figures

I.1 Africa 1990–1999

I.2 Africa 2000–2009

I.3 Africa 2010–2015

1.1 Number of state failure events, 1955–2014

1.2 State failure events in Africa, 1955–2014

1.3 Number of revolutionary wars, 1955–2014

1.4 Number of ethnic wars, 1955–2014

1.5 Number of genocides and politicides, 1955–2014

1.6 Number of major armed conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa, 1963–2004

1.7 Number of state-based armed conflicts in Africa, 1963–2013

1.8 Number of armed conflicts in Africa compared, 1990–2014

1.9 Sources of war deaths

1.10 Battle deaths in African conflicts, 1989–2014

1.11 One-sided violence fatalities in Africa, 1989–2013 (excluding 1994 Rwandan genocide)

1.12 International Rescue Committee estimates of trends in mortality and deaths from violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 1998–2007

1.13 UCDP-GED: state-based, non-state, and one-sided violence events in Africa, 1989–2013

1.14 Number of conflict-related events in Africa by actor, 1997–2014

1.15 Conflict events in Nigeria: ACLED and UCDP compared, 1990–2011

1.16 Total violence against civilians in Africa by perpetrator, 1997–2014

3.1 Sierra Leone: proportion of violations by perpetrator group

4.1 Relative asset deprivation, natural resources and conflict onset in Chad, 1997

4.2 Population structures in Africa's ‘fragile’ countries and the European Union

10.1 Peace Operations in Africa 1988–2014

10.2 UN peacekeepers in Africa 1990–2014

11.1 The political spectrum of humanitarians and their attitudes toward traditional operating principles

Abbreviations

ACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project
ACIRC African Capacity for Immediate Response to Crises
ACSS Africa Centre for Strategic Studies
ADC Alliance Démocratique du 23 Mai 2006 pour le Changement (Mali)
ADF Allied Democratic Forces (Uganda)
AFDL Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo–Zaire
AFISMA African-led International Support Mission in Mali
AFRC Armed Forces Revolutionary Council (Sierra Leone)
AMIB AU Mission in Burundi
AMIS AU Mission in Sudan
AMISEC AU Mission for Support to the Elections in the Comoros
AMISOM AU Mission in Somalia
APC All People's Congress (Sierra Leone)
APSA African Peace and Security Architecture
AQIM Al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb
ASF African Standby Force
ATNMC Alliance Touareg Nord-Mali pour le Changement (Mali)
AU African Union
CAR Central African Republic
CDF Civil Defence Force (Sierra Leone)
CDR Coalition pour la Défense de la République (Rwanda)
CEN-SAD Community of Sahel-Saharan States
CEWARN Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (IGAD)
CEWS Continental Early Warning System (AU)
CIJ Coalition for International Justice
CNDP Congrès National pour la Défense du Peuple (DRC)
CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement (Sudan, 2005)
CPDTF Commonwealth Police Development Task Force
DDR disarmament, demobilization and reintegration
DLF Darfur Liberation Front
DRC Democratic Republic of Congo
EASF Eastern Africa Standby Force
ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States
ECOMICI ECOWAS Mission in Côte d'Ivoire
ECOMIL ECOWAS Mission in Liberia
ECOMOG ECOWAS Monitoring Group
ECOWARN ECOWAS Early Warning and Response Network
ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States
EIJM Eritrean Islamic Jihad Movement
EPLF Eritrean People's Liberation Front
EPRDF Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front
EU European Union
EUFOR EU Force
EUFOR RD EU Reserve Deployment Force
EUSEC EU Security Sector Reform Mission
FAC Congolese Armed Forces
FARDC Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo (DRC)
FDLR Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda
FIS Front Islamique du Salut (Algeria)
FLEC Front for the Liberation of the Cabinda Enclave
FLN Front de Libération Nationale (Algeria)
FN Forces Nouvelles (Côte d'Ivoire)
FOMUC CEMAC Multinational Force in the Central African Republic
GAF Guinean Armed Forces
GDP gross domestic product
GIA Armed Islamic Group
GIZ German Development Agency
GNI gross national income
GSPC Group for Salafist Preaching and Combat
HIPC heavily indebted poor countries
HIPPO High-Level Independent Panel on Peace Operations
HRW Human Rights Watch
HSM Holy Spirit Movement (Uganda)
HSR Human Security Report
ICC International Criminal Court
ICG International Crisis Group
ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross
IED improvised explosive device
IFI international financial institution
IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development
IGNU Interim Government of National Unity (Liberia)
IISS International Institute for Strategic Studies (UK)
IMF International Monetary Fund
IR International Relations
IRC International Rescue Committee
ISR intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance
JEM Justice and Equality Movement (Sudan)
LRA Lord's Resistance Army (Uganda)
LURD Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy
MAES AU Electoral and Security Assistance Mission to the Comoros
MCA Millennium Challenge Account (US)
MEND Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (Nigeria)
MFDC Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (Senegal)
MICOPAX Mission for the Consolidation of Peace in Central African Republic
MINUCI UN Mission in Côte d'Ivoire
MINURCA UN Mission in the Central African Republic
MINURCAT UN Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad
MINURSO UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara
MINUSCA UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in CAR
MINUSMA UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MIOC AU Military Observer Mission in the Comoros
MISAB Inter-African Peace Force (Central African Republic)
MISCA AU Mission in Central African Republic
MJP Patriotic Youth Movement (Côte d'Ivoire)
MLC Movement for the Liberation of Congo (DRC)
MNJ Mouvement des Nigériens pour la Justice (Niger)
MNJTF Multinational Joint Task Force
MNLA Mouvement National de Liberation de l'Azawad
MODEL Movement for Democracy in Liberia
MONUA UN Observer Mission in Angola
MONUC UN Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo
MONUSCO UN Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo
MOSOP Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (Nigeria)
MPCI Mouvement Patriotique de Côte d'Ivoire
MPIGO Ivorian Movement of the Great West
MPLA Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola
MRND National Revolutionary Movement for Development (Rwanda)
MSF Médecins Sans Frontières
MUJAO Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NCP National Congress Party (Sudan)
NGO non-governmental organization
NIF Neutral International Force (Rwanda)
NLC National Liberation Council (SPLM)
NPFL National Patriotic Front of Liberia
OAU Organization of African Unity
ODA overseas development assistance
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
OLF Oromo Liberation Front (Ethiopia)
OLMEE OAU Liaison Mission in Ethiopia–Eritrea
OMC Observation and Monitoring Centre (ECOWAS)
OMIB UN Observer Mission in Burundi
ONLF Ogaden National Liberation Front (Ethiopia)
ONUB UN Operation in Burundi
ONUC UN Operation in the Congo
ONUMOZ UN Operation in Mozambique
PGE Provisional Government of Eritrea
PITF Political Instability Task Force (US)
POLISARIO Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Río de Oro (Western Sahara)
PSC Peace and Security Council (of the AU)
RCD Congolese Rally for Democracy (DRC)
RECs Regional Economic Communities (Africa)
RENAMO the Mozambican Resistance Movement
RFDG Rally of Democratic Forces of Guinea
RPF Rwandan Patriotic Front
RUF Revolutionary United Front (Sierra Leone)
SAC structural adjustment credit
SADC Southern African Development Community
SADR Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic
SEA sexual exploitation and abuse
SLA Sierra Leone Army
SLM/A Sudan Liberation Movement/Army
SNM Somali National Movement
SPLM/A Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army
SRRA Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Association
SSR security sector reform
TFG Transitional Federal Government (Somalia)
TPLF Tigray People's Liberation Front
TRC Truth and Reconciliation Commission
TSZ temporary security zone (Ethiopia–Eritrea)
UAV unmanned aerial vehicle
UCDP Uppsala Conflict Data Programme
UIC Union of Islamic Courts (Somalia)
UK United Kingdom
ULIMO United Liberation Movement of Liberia for Democracy
UN United Nations
UNAMID AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur
UNAMIR UN Assistance Mission for Rwanda
UNAMSIL UN Mission in Sierra Leone
UNASOG UN Aouzou Strip Observer Group
UNAVEM UN Angola Verification Mission
UNCTAD UN Conference on Trade and Development
UNDP UN Development Programme
UNEP UN Environment Programme
UNITA National Union for the Total Independence of Angola
UNITAF Unified Task Force (Somalia)
UNMEE UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea
UNMIL UN Mission in Liberia
UNMIS UN Mission in Sudan
UNMISS UN Mission in South Sudan
UNOCI UN Operation in Côte d'Ivoire
UNOMIL UN Observer Mission in Liberia
UNOMSIL UN Observer Mission in Sierra Leone
UNOMUR UN Observer Mission in Rwanda–Uganda
UNOSOM UN Mission in Somalia
UNSOA UN Support Office for AMISOM
UPDA Ugandan People's Democratic Army
UPDF Ugandan People's Defence Force
US United States of America
WHO World Health Organization
ZANU-PF Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front

Acknowledgements

Since the manuscript for the first edition of this book was submitted to Polity in late 2010, Africa has experienced a significant rise in conflict events and organized violence. This fact alone made it appropriate to write a revised and updated edition. In making these revisions I have left the structure of the original book intact and instead provided updated information and added new subsections and case studies where appropriate. Five years on, I stand by my original arguments and overall conclusions. I have, however, devoted more attention to the many non-state armed conflicts afflicting the continent as well as recent developments concerning the roles of resources and religion in organized violence.

In the course of writing the first edition of this book, I accrued a number of debts and I am pleased to reiterate them here. First of all, the generosity, support and constructive criticism of two good friends, Alex Bellamy and Ian Taylor, were invaluable. Over nearly two decades Alex and I have collaborated on numerous projects, and my thinking on a whole range of issues, especially peace operations and mass atrocities, owes a great deal to his insights. He provided extensive comments on the original manuscript. It is also nearly two decades since Ian welcomed a strange PhD student into his home in South Africa, and he has been teaching me things about politics in Africa ever since. We also worked together on various projects related to Africa's international relations and I have learned a great deal in the process. Ian, too, offered suggestions about how to improve the original manuscript.

I also remain grateful to Stuart Croft, Jon Elliott, Lee Ann Fujii, Linda Melvern and Polity's two anonymous readers who provided many constructive suggestions on how to improve the original manuscript. Whatever its shortcomings, this book is definitely better because of their comments. Naturally, I am solely responsible for any remaining errors.

Many of the ideas in this book were incubated in discussions I had with the MA students who took my ‘War and Conflict in Africa’ class at the Elliott School of International Affairs. Whether or not they appreciated it at the time, I learned a great deal during our seminars. I hope they did too and that the finished product might prove useful in the important work many of them are doing related to Africa. The first edition of this book also benefited from the research assistance provided by three Elliott School students: Matthew Hughes compiled the index to the first edition, while Dmitriy Synkov provided the current version; Matthew Hickey collected documentation related to Africa's sub-regional arrangements; and Katrina Timlin located and summarized various studies relevant to the chapter on religion and provided feedback on the Introduction.

At Polity, I am pleased to acknowledge the help and advice I received from the excellent team of Nekane Tanaka Galdos and, as ever, Louise Knight, who expertly shepherded me through the publication process. Polity remains a model for what scholarly publishing should be about.

Conducting research on African issues can be expensive. While writing the first edition of this book, I was fortunate to receive financial support which facilitated travel, research assistance and relevant interviews from the UK's Economic and Research Council's New Security Challenges programme and the Elliott School of International Affairs. For the second edition, I continue to owe a debt of gratitude to the Elliott School of International Affairs, and especially its former Dean Michael E. Brown, for providing financial support for my research through the SOAR initiative.

I also want to say thank you to the many people within governments, international organizations, NGOs, academia and the general public who provided me with relevant documents or took the time to discuss with me issues of war and peace in Africa.

Finally, the love and support I receive from my wife, Ariela Blätter, continues to make everything possible. In June 2013 our little family expanded when she brought our daughter Zoë into this world. Zoë has already taught us a great deal about how to handle conflict. But she has not, yet, made it to Africa. I hope that when she does, she will be able to see a continent that has overcome the many challenges raised by wars and other forms of armed conflict.

PDW

Washington DC, August 2015