001

Table of Contents
 
Praise
Title Page
Copyright Page
Dedication
 
Table of Figures
Foreword
PREFACE
Acknowledgements
 
Section 1 - ‘WHY?’
Chapter 1 Part 2 - WHY CHANGE? Everyone knows the trouble I’ve seen
Chapter 1 Part 2 - FORECASTING DISEASE the symptoms and the remedy
 
SYMPTOM #1
SYMPTOM #2
SYMPTOM #3
SYMPTOM #4
SYMPTOM #5
SYMPTOM #6
SYMPTOM #7
SUMMARY
KEY LEARNING POINTS - Seven common symptoms of forecasting illness
NOTES
 
Chapter I Part I - WHY CHANGE? Everyone knows the trouble I’ve seen
Chapter I Part 2 - FORECASTING DISEASE the symptoms and the remedy
 
SYMPTOM #1
SYMPTOM #2
SYMPTOM #3
SYMPTOM #4
SYMPTOM #5
SYMPTOM #6
SYMPTOM #7
SUMMARY
KEY LEARNING POINTS - Seven common symptoms of forecasting illness
NOTES
 
Section 2 - PRINCIPLES
Chapter 2 - MASTERING PURPOSE — the Cassandra paradox
 
PREDICTIONS: ‘WHO NEEDS THEM?’
WHY IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A FORECAST AND A PREDICTION
FORECASTS:WHY DO WE NEED THEM?
DEFINITIONS
‘A GOOD FORECAST’:A SPECIFICATION
SUMMARY
KEY LEARNING POINTS
NOTES
 
Chapter 3 - MASTERING TIME - delay and decision
 
WHY FORECAST?
HOW FAR AHEAD SHOULD WE FORECAST?
HOW FREQUENTLY SHOULD WE FORECAST?
THE ANATOMY OF A DECISION
SUMMARY
KEY LEARNING POINTS
NOTES
 
Chapter 4 - MASTERING MODELS: mapping the future
 
GUIDELINES FOR MODEL CHOICE
SUMMARY
KEY LEARNING POINTS
NOTES
 
Chapter 5 - MASTERING MEASUREMENT - learning to love error
 
WHAT TO MEASURE
WHEN TO MEASURE IT
HOW TO MEASURE IT
SUMMARY
KEY LEARNING POINTS
NOTES
 
Chapter 6 - MASTERING RISKS: how the paranoid survive
 
HOW TO ASSESS RISK
ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY USING SCENARIOS
SUMMARY
KEY LEARNING POINTS
NOTES
 
Section 3 - ‘PRAXIS’
Chapter 7 - MASTERING PROCESS: the mother of good fortune
 
THEME #1 RECIPE FOR SUCCESS:TIPS AND TRAPS
RULE NUMBER I — GOING WITH THE FLOW: ORGANIZE YOUR PROCESS IN A LOGICAL SEQUENCE
RULE NUMBER 2 - DESIGN OUT BIAS: REMOVE OR TREAT THE SOURCES OF BIAS ‘INFECTION’
RULE NUMBER 3 -WHEN YOU HAVE DESIGNED YOUR PROCESS, STICK TO ITAND CONTINUOUSLY ...
RULE NUMBER 4 - MORE ABOUT DISCIPLINE: MANAGERS SHOULD BE MADE TO FIT THE ...
RULE NUMBER 5 -ALIGN BEHAVIORS: ELIMINATE THE BAD PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOR WHICH ...
RULE NUMBER 6 - BALANCE PRINCIPLES AND PRAGMATISM: ADOPT A ‘GOOD ENOUGH’ APPROACH
SUMMARY
KEY LEARNING POINTS
THEME #2 COORDINATION IN A COMPLEX SYSTEM: HOW DIFFERENT CAN WE BE?
SUMMARY
KEY LEARNING POINTS
THEME #3 ‘WHOSE JOB IS IT ANYWAY?’ ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES
SUMMARY
KEY LEARNING POINTS
NOTES
 
Section 4 - TRANSFORMATION
Chapter 8 - IMPLEMENTATION: beginnings and endings
 
SUMMARY
KEY LEARNING POINTS
NOTES
 
Chapter 9 - BEYOND FORECASTING: the biggest barrier
 
SUMMARY
DEFINITIONS
KEY LEARNING POINTS
NOTES
 
Chapter 10 - BEYOND BUDGETING: a new management model?
 
20 KEY ASSUMPTIONS OF THE CLASSICAL MANAGEMENT MODEL
THERE ARE SIX PROCESS PRINCIPLES IN THE BEYOND BUDGETING MODEL
THERE ARE SIX ORGANIZATIONAL PRINCIPLES IN THE BEYOND BUDGETING MODEL
SUMMARY
KEY LEARNING POINTS
NOTE
 
Chapter 11 - CONCLUSION: reconnection
 
GLOSSARY
Appendix 1 - DESIGN PRINCIPLES: A SUMMARY
Appendix 2 - IMPORTANT CONCEPTS IN SYSTEMS AND CYBERNETICS
REFERENCES
INDEX

Table of Figures
 
Figure 2.1 Forecasting in business is like navigating at sea.When sailing, you project the future in order to make decisions — to change or to remain on course.
Figure 2.2 Forecasting and continuous replanning.A forecast is the link between external reality, our aspirations and the plans we put in place to bring our aspirations about.
Figure 2.3 The forecast cycle.For a forecast to be useful, it needs to be available in good time for meaningful action to be taken before events change. In thisexample, 2/3 of the month is given over to preparing a forecast that will soon be superseded; so much of the effort is wasted.
Figure 2.4 Every forecast will be wrong; there will always be some error.A good forecast is unbiased, as in this example: there will be roughly as many positive errors as there are negative errors. Inaddition, the range of errors - the variation — should have no material adverse effects on decision-making. A forecast is reliableif there is no bias and the level of variation is tolerable.
Figure 3.1 We only forecast because we cannot react.Forecasting is essential whenever there is a signifcant time lag between taking action and that action having an effect as inthe case of a super tanker.
Figure 3.2 How lead times can induce instability.
Figure 3.3 Rolling forecasts.Unlike conventional budgets, true rolling forecasts have a consistent forecast horizon, irrespective of when a forecast is made.
Figure 3.4 A concertina forecast horizon.It may not be necessary to have a strict rolling forecast.
Figure 3.5 Three different types of forecasts.Business forecasting — the subject of this book - differs from Operational and Strategic forecasting.
Figure 3.6 Forecast updates.Showing how the degree of variability and the degree of materiality to decisions might interact to determine the forecasting cycle.
Figure 3.7 How Southwest Airlines schedules forecast updates.Forecast updates take place at different frequencies, depending on the volatility of the variable and the economic relevance tothe business. (Reproduced with permission).
Figure 3.8 The innovation funnel.Showing how executable projects are distilled from ideas.
Figure 3.9 Forecast decay.Knowledge declines the further ahead we look; we have to be careful that we are not misled by this.
Figure 4.1 The map is not the territory: theLondon tube map showing walking times.
Figure 4.2 Forecasting as a process.Shows how models transform assumptions into forecasts.
Figure 4.3 A run chartAn example to demonstrate how bias can change unpredictably.The shift in bias may be associated with motivational bias whichhas ‘changed polarity’ due to a change in target at year end.
Figure 4.4 Product costs: an example of a simple mathematical model.
Figure 4.5 A simple statistical model.This example shows a simple linear extrapolation from a time series.
Figure 4.6 Combining models.This example demonstrates the use of two different types of models to produce a combined ‘momentum plus interventions’forecast. Here the impact which interventions made in the past has been excluded before extrapolating a trend statistically toproduce a momentum forecast. This is supplemented by a judgmental forecast of the incremental impact of interventions toproduce a combined forecast.
Figure 4.7 A forecasting system.Showing how, in practice, judgmental, mathematical, and statistical models are used in combination.
Figure 5.1 A dot on a piece of paper.
Figure 5.2 Measuring forecasts.We can only measure forecast accuracy within the decision-making lead time. In this example, the fact that we have missedour forecast (which predicted a collision) is down to the decision we made to avoid the lighthouse, not the quality of the forecast.We should therefore measure the quality of the forecast before we started the maneuver (as indicated by the lower arrow), notafter it was completed.
Figure 5.3 Measuring a process.An example of how to use measurement to control the performance of a production process.
Figure 5.4 Four examples of forecast error run charts.A and C come from processes which are clearly negatively biased, whereas B is positively biased, at least after the fourth period.See the panel below for an interpretation of D.
Figure 5.5 A damning publication.An example showing how the simple act of publishing a run chart dramatically improved forecast quality in a business unit. Biashas been eliminated (the average net error falls from 2.5% to zero) but variation has reduced as well. A striking demonstrationof the power of feedback.
Figure 5.6 Another run chart.This chart shows a change in the pattern of bias in a process which is not picked up by statistics based on averaging theresults.
Figure 5.7 Trigg’s Tracking Signal.
Figure 6.1 Two alternative views of risks and uncertainty and how to manage them.Note that the curves represent different views of probability - they are not drawn to scale.
Figure 6.2 Donna’s range forecast
Figure 6.3 A skewed distribution.
Figure 6.4 Possible scenarios for a European manufacturer of fast moving consumer goods.
Figure 6.5 Donna’s solution.
Figure 7.1 An example of a flow chart for a monthly forecast process.‘M’ denotes meetings.
Figure 7.2 Improving a process.In order to improve a process - like a golf swing — it is important that it is consistent.
Figure 7.3 Two different sorts of behavioral process.Which best describes the way in which your organization’s culture works?
Figure 8.1 The change curve.An ‘S’ shaped curve of the sort typically associated with the introduction of change — of any sort.
Figure A.1 Four different control system configurations.
Figure A.2 The role of time in regulation of a system. Examples of different forms of system behavior resulting from differences in the timing of corrective action.
Figure A.3 A systems diagnosis of patterns of change. The typical shape of a change process is associated with changes in the relative strength of (positive and negative feedback processes. Excessive dominance of positive feedback ultimately leads to collapse.
Figure A.4 A second order feedback system.
Figure A.5 Control technologies. Different types of control arrangements are required for different kinds of systems. (Cybernetics and Management (Stafford, 1959)). (Reproduced by permission of Cwarel Isaf Institute.)

“A timely resource for these turbulent times - this book provides terrific insight into both sophisticated methodology and the “soft” factors that must be contemplated in developing effective forecasts. The authors also include a valuable section providing practical guidance on implementation and development of forecasts.”
Jack Alexander,
Former CFO, Consultant and Author of Performance Dashboards and Analysis for Value Creation
 
“As this book vividly demonstrates through its many case studies, forecasting quality is a life or death issue for organisations of all types, and the current economic turmoil makes strong “navigational” capabilities all the more critical. Future Ready is therefore a very timely call to action, challenging readers to rethink the many myths and practical flaws which bedevil their current approaches to forecasting and presenting a clear and radical blueprint for future success. This book is immensely readable, deeply practical and unquestionably authoritative — drawing on the authors’ extensive practical experience of leading and reinventing forecasting processes in major corporations and the unique insights derived from their deep academic research. Its rich offering of theory, human and organisational observation, case studies and practical solutions will appeal to all actors in the drama of forecasting, and I would urge business leaders and forecasting practitioners alike to undertake the journey of transformation it advocates so powerfully.”
Paul Baumann
Director of Finance and Investment. NHS London
 
“The business world needs more books like this one! Based on brilliant observations from their deep experience and knowledge of both the business front-line and the business library, Morlidge and Player not only reveals serious problems with current forecasting practices and offer valuable advice and alternatives, they also do so in a uniquely simple and entertaining way. Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one.”
Bjarte Bogsnes.
Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro
and author of Implementing Beyond Budgeting
 
“In my opinion Player and Morlidge help Business Executives develop a robust and very sound process for decision making in today’s hectically fast paced world. This book provides a cornerstone to business success.”
A. J. Braniff,
Senior Vice President, Business Development, Whoop Inc
 
“Steve Player and Steve Morlidge have produced a ‘must read’ for CFOs. In these turbulent financial times, effective forecasting is vital to future business success. They have provided the blueprint to guide us to this success.”
Patricia Cochran
Chief Financial Officer, VSP Vision Care
 
“This book on forecasting addresses an important topic as executive teams shift their managerial style from after-the-fact reaction to a forward-looking anticipatory planning so that executives, managers, and employee teams can be proactive in making adjustments and resolve small problems before they become big ones.”
Gary Cokins,
SAS, Performance Management Solutions
Author of Performance Management - Integrating Strategy Execution, Methodologies, Risk and
Analytics
 
“The ability to forecast has always been a precondition for any kind of successful navigation. In today’s globally connected, constantly changing and fast evolving world of business, effective forecasting becomes a survival factor for any kind of enterprise. Yet, the discipline of effective business forecasting is still in its infancy - particularly the understanding of how to design and implement effective forecasting in an organization, especially in a larger organization. With ”Future Ready“ Steve Morlidge and Steve Player do an excellent job in putting together the pieces required for effective forecasting by integrating the thinking from various disciplines and different communities of thinking and in showing us how a more holistic, integrated approach to forecasting may lead to better enterprise management that is future ready.”
Juergen Daum,
Management Advisor and Chief Solution Architect, SAP, and President and Founder,
International Institute of Enterprise — Heidelberg
 
“A detailed and thought provoking look at a fundamental area of corporate financial planning.
Provides a clear eyed analysis of an essential business process that many of us don’t understand either as well
or as in as much detail as we should.
Moves beyond theory to the mechanics of designing and implementing a genuinely useful forecasting
system.”
Liz Doherty,
CFO, Brambles Ltd
 
“Business Forecasting is a process all organizations do, but rarely do they do it well. Other books on the topic typically include complex analytical models that even most PhDs could not understand, or are so simplistic that they are not useful. This book provides a practical and understadable approach that can be put to use immediately. Steve and Steve have an ability to communicate complex concepts in simply lanaguage and provide an approach based real experience working with major corporations and non profits that will allow your organization to better predict future performance. Should be required reading for all executives and Business school students.”
Mark Graham Brown,
Author of Beyond the Balanced Scorecard
 
“The roller-coaster of the last twelve months shows that this is a timely addition to management thinking. Those of us involved in the dark arts of forecasting know how difficult it can be in practice and that it can make or break the best laid of intentions. More importantly, we know that when done well, great forecasting as a core competency can be a source of competitive advantage in the way companies deploy and optimise the allocation of resources. But, here we have a text that helps shine a bright light on this whole area and it does so in a practical, engaging, and thought provoking way. The deep practical experience of the authors shines through. I can recommend that reading this book will be a good investment of your time and will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward.”
Howard Green,
Group Controller and SVP Finance Categories, Unilever PLC
 
“Knowing the authors well, I wasn’t surprised when I read this thoughtful, well grounded book. But, working in a company that prides itself on its intensely pragmatic approach to business, I was delighted by the simple and straightforward way in which sophisticated ideas have been expressed and the focus on practical application. This combination makes this a book for the executive suite — as well as the back office.”
Andrew Higginson.
Chief Executive of Retailing Services, and former CFO, Tesco PLC.
 
“Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting is a timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement. Criteria for superior practices are developed, including the obtaining organizational alignment and achieving significant benefits at reasonable costs. The experienced authors include specific forecasting cases from actual practice. This book provides a lively description of successful experiences in improving management performance in both planning and control.”
Dr Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield
Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University.
Author of Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis (12th ed), Introduction to
Management Accounting, (13th ed), Accounting, (6th ed), Financial Accounting, (6th ed)
 
“This is a very useful book for managers, because its focus is on the forecasting process and not on the technique.”
Professor Dr Peter Horvath,
Chairman, Horvath and Partners
 
“This book puts its finger on most of the important lessons I have learned from my 25 years of experience of running and using and consulting in this area, and a lot more besides. It is profound as well as practical; challenging the reader to think again about the way in which they go about doing business.”
Martin Jarvis,
CEO, D1 Fuel Crops Ltd
 
“Sustainability in a business context is not about the here and now but about survival into the future. This is the challenge for business managers. No one can precisely predict the future, but organizations that are better prepared to weather the storms of uncertainty will not only survive but thrive. Steve Morlidge and Steve Player have translated their many years of experience in the area of forecasting into an easily understandable and well presented text that will certainly add value to any business, and enlighten any manager in the complex art of business forecasting and performance management using leading edge tools and thought.”
Aubrey Joachim
FCMA MBA, Global President, Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA); Principal
Consultant, Leading Edge Change — Australia and Australasian Director, BBRT
 
“There are many broken processes in most organizations, and forecasting is one with a big impact. The authors help the reader discover and expose the fractures and the impact of these fractures. Their methodical approach to “healing the fractures” is equivalent to a living feedback system checking reality against assumptions and adjusting as necessary. A great way for a flexible company to minimize surprises and create solid countermeasures.”
 
Beau Keyte,
founder of Branson Inc and co-author of The Complete Lean Enterprise:
Value Stream Mapping for Office and Administrative Processes Shingo Prize winner 2005.
 
“Conducting a traditional budgeting and planning process is tantamount to a gross misuse of company resources. Enlightened firms are learning to focus on the key drivers of revenue and expense, and to plan and forecast continuously as market conditions inevitably change. This flexibility is necessary to succeed and to ensure that strategic investments are not crowded out.”
Dave Martin,
CFO, Dimensional Fund Advisors
 
“The recent recession has made one thing clear in business — the rules have changed. No longer can companies operate in discrete and clearly defined operating timeframes. Many companies have realized that the operating parameters used in setting annual budgets in January become obsolete by the end of the first quarter. So, it is a imperative that companies develop a much more dynamic process in keeping the annual budget relevant to the changing market dynamics. Changing the annual plan targets and parameters can be a tricky effort as it is important that the overall goals and targets are not compromised as market conditions change. But rather, the path to those goals and targets must be dynamic and flexible enough to allow alternative paths for accomplishing a company’s goals. A key to a dynamic path is a forecasting process that is integrated into the fabric of the tactical decision making process for a company. The forecasting process must be able to link the sales, marketing and operations personnel so that changes in one area complement others rather than create conflict and resistance. Coordination of efforts to react to changes in market conditions is a key to success for any company in this new and dynamic business environment that we face daily.”
Brian McMahon,
Assistant Controller, The Hershey Company
 
“Competition in business is just as intense as athletic competition. This book shows how to use forecasting to develop a winning game plan.”
Steve Pace,
CFO, Big 12 Conference
 
“This book perfectly demonstrates the importance of predictive capabilities for successful management in these turbulent times. In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market.”
Fritz Roemer,
Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group
 
“To steer the right course, companies need to adopt business forecasting methods, tools, and processes — especially during these uncertain and turbulent economic times. In Future Ready, Morlidge and Player capture this urgency and draws upon their extensive experience and cross-industry perspective to prescribe a common sense philosophy and approach to business planning and forecasting. By integrating sound forecasting practices into business decision-making, companies improve their chances of being future ready!”
Srikant K. Sastry,
Chairman of the Board,
Consortium of Advanced Management-International.
Principal, Grant Thornton LLP
 
“The authors have delivered a well-documented treatise on an important and often neglected business topic.”
Jonathan B. Schiff,
Professor of Accounting, Fairleigh Dickinson University
 
“Steve Player and Steve Morlidge have seen the future of forecasting and charted a path to it. This is essential reading for finance executives tasked with leading their organizations into the world of real-time decision making.”
Jack Sweeney, editor in chief, Business Finance Magazine, founding editor Consulting Magazine
 
“Steve Morlidge and Steve Player both have considerable experience of the problems and issues of management
control in large organizations and in this book they bring that experience to bear. To support their ideas they
incorporate into the text many relevant ‘real world’ examples of the problems currently encountered in
organizations’ management control activities and they give their own ‘take’ on planning and control solutions.
Given the extremely modest success achieved by current practices in this area, their ideas are most welcome.
This book will be valuable to middle and senior level managers, who are wrestling with the planning and
control processes of their organizations. It will also have a place on MSc or MBA courses which deal with
management control as a pragmatic general reader offering an alternative approach, alongside a more
traditional academic text.
At one level the book can be seen as some light reading and in this form it will be ‘entertaining’ and thought
provoking. However, this does not do justice to the book as the content is also worthy of greater attention
and more detailed scrutiny; managers will definitely benefit from giving the content greater consideration. If
a management team is seeking to ‘overhaul’ or, more appropriately, ‘refocus’ their planning and control
processes this text should be compulsory reading for all those concerned.”
Mike Tayles,
Professor of Accounting and Finance Hull University Business School;
Director, Centre for International Accounting and Finance Research
 
“As someone who focuses on improving business decisions I see the impact of bad forecasting systems all the time. Good business decisions require good forecasts and this book lays out the principles essential to effective forecasting.”
James Taylor, author of Smart (Enough) Systems
 
“This provocative and highly relevant book is a call to action for management accountants and other business professionals looking to drive business performance inside organizations. The authors view forecasting as a core business process and provide six intuitive and focused principles to master. Studies continue to reveal that CFO teams around the globe have significant gaps in their planning and forecasting capabilities, exacerbated and exposed by the global recession. This book is a solutions-oriented approach to practically filling that gap.”
Jeffrey C. Thomson,
President and CEO, Institute of Management Accountants
 
“Probably the first entertaining book written on the subject of forecasting.”
Flavio Ventacilla,
Research Associate: Business School of the University of Applied Sciences, Northwestern Switzerland
 
“The last twelve months have shown how volatile the business environment can be. The practical ideas in this book help us get ready to prepare for whatever comes.”
Jon Zindel,
Chief Financial Officer, American Century

001

This book is dedicated to the people in our past who made it possible to produce this book today. That began with our parents both Frank and Joyce Morlidge and Bobby and Violet Player, who lifted us and gave us a firm foundation where all success is possible. All that we reach is because they lifted us up on their shoulders.
 
 
Also, we dedicate this to our families (Sue, Lisa, Sally and Matthew Morlidge and Lydia, David, Emily, and Cole Player) and our co-workers, who sustain us and make our journey worth traveling. They give our journey meaning and joy that enriches our lives.
 
 
Work most often is accomplished by dedicated individuals diligently performing their jobs and doing so far away from the spotlight. These supporters, while often unseen, are the successful execution. Michael Player provided an outstanding example for all to follow - and he did it with wit, humor, and a genuine caring for members and co-workers that made our work special. We will honor him as we continue on the trails that he blazed.
 
 
Our hope is that this book helps you and your organization become future ready to both thrive and build a better world. We can think of no better way to bring honor and repay a portion of what so many have freely given to us.

FOREWORD
This book fills a gap in the management literature. It translates often arcane tools and techniques into accessible language and action-based guidelines. It will help you to break free from the shackles of budgeting and learn how to manage more effectively in an increasingly unpredictable and uncertain world.
Most businesses spend a number of months each year agreeing the budget and then monitoring performance against it. In more recent times, they have updated the budget with some kind of forecast with a horizon that declines as the accounting calendar moves towards the fiscal year end. This type of forecasting has limited value. It treats forecasting is an adjunct to the annual budget rather than a core management process subject to the disciplines of continuous learning and improvement. Not only does it consume valuable time but its purpose is to help managers take short-term tactical decisions to ‘meet the numbers’ that, more often than not, undermine the longer-term interests of the business. Trapped in such an outmoded performance management practice, it is no wonder that the knowledge and techniques of forecasting have failed to move forward.
This excellent book makes a compelling case for treating forecasting as a core management process that enables a more adaptive organization rather than just ‘fix’ a glaring weakness in traditional management practice. But it is not simply about ‘building a better budget’. Both authors have spent many years in the vanguard of the ‘Beyond Budgeting’ movement. They understand that the real opportunity for designing and implementing an effective forecasting process is not a ‘better budget’ with all its behavioral baggage but to continuously ‘sketch the future’ in a way that provides managers with a range of likely outcomes based on a variety of options. It is about building a process that not only enables decisions to be taken with confidence (such as launching a new product) but also helps organizations to respond rapidly to unpredictable events (and, as we all know, the future is more unpredictable than ever).
This does not necessarily mean that managers can better predict those events. But it does mean they can more quickly evaluate the alternative courses of action available to deal with them when they happen. This gets to the essence of effective forecasting. It is not another attempt to ‘predict and control’ future outcomes. Its aim is to build a process that enables managers to continuously look ahead and use all available information and practical techniques to take decisions that maximize the potential of the business.
The authors also know that no management process, no matter how well designed, can stand alone. It is part of a holistic management model within which everything is connected to everything else. Even though the book is full of useful techniques and practical advice it constantly reminds the reader that these will be of limited value if, for example, target setting, incentive compensation, resource allocation and performance measurement remain stuck in a budgeting time-warp.
This book has something for everyone. For the business leader it sets out what needs to be done to overcome the ‘visibility’ problem. ‘Why didn’t we respond more rapidly when the first signs of the credit crunch were hitting the radar screen?’ is a common complaint of many CEOs. Clearly conventional approaches have not served businesses well. For the business manager it offers a methodology and a set of practical techniques to help displace the tired, old budget - an approach that they can use to steer the business in a turbulent environment. For the academic it offers research opportunities for developing new management models based on the natural sciences, particularly systems thinking. It is a book for our times.
 
Jeremy Hope
Cofounder of the Beyond Budgeting Round Table
 
Books:
Reinventing the CFO: How Financial Managers Can Transform Their Roles and Add Greater Value. Harvard Business School Press 2006
Beyond Budgeting: How Managers Can Break Free from the Annual Performance Trap (with Robin Fraser). Harvard Business School Press 2003
Competing in the Third Wave: Ten Key Issues that Managers Must Face in the Information Age. Harvard Business School Press 1997
Transforming the Bottom Line: Managing Performance with the Real Numbers (with Tony Hope). Nicholas Brealey Publishing 1995

PREFACE
‘Allthe business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavor to find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called “guessing what was at the other side of the hill”’.
The First Duke of Wellington
 
This book helps business people improve their ability to forecast the future. By improving your organization’s ability to anticipate, you will be better prepared. As a result you will deliver more reliable performance and be in better shape to exploit opportunities and avoid potential catastrophes. In short, you will become ‘Future Ready’.
As these words were written, we were under daily bombardment with stories of economic failure and business collapse; we have plentiful evidence of our inability to predict the future. The forecasting capabilities of governments, academics, research bodies, businesses, and other organizations have been demonstrated to be woefully inadequate. Even the British Queen got in on the act when she asked ‘how come no-one saw it coming?’ at a recent event at the London School of Economics (Giles, 2008). At his testimony to Congress Alan Greenspan acknowledged the poor forecasting capabilities of the Fed: ‘we’re not smart enough people’ he said, ‘we just cannot see events that far in advance. There are always a lot of people raising issues, and half the time they are wrong’ (Ryan, 2009).
Business executives don’t need to be told that they have a problem. ‘The financial crisis has obliterated corporate forecasts’ reports the CFO Magazine; 70% of respondents to their recent survey said that they were unable to see more than one quarter ahead. But, as the report acknowledged, ’abandoning the prediction game is not an option’ for business executives (Ryan, 2008). A single profit warning has always been a serious matter for Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) and, they and Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) are likely to find themselves out of work after two. In any one year the 1300 UK quoted companies issue 400 profit warnings and share prices drop by an average of 20% afterwards (Bloom et al., 2009). Poor profit guidance significantly shortens careers of top executives, according to recent research, and this has got worse post Sarbanes-Oxley (Mergenthaler et al., 2008). Unsurprisingly, the ‘ability to forecast results’ was the number one ’internal concern’ for CFOs according to a recent survey covering Europe, the US and Asia, ahead of such issues as ‘attracting and retaining qualified employees’, ‘balance sheet weakness’, ‘counterparty risk’, ‘managing IT systems’ and ‘supply chain risk’ (Karaian, 2009). Also, good forecasting has always been a major concern for operational management. Forecasts lie at the heart of the supply chain process and it is no less important for service organizations to ensure that they are able to consistently service customer demand. Again, the credit squeeze has made this even more important. Cash reserves are critical to riding out the economic storm, and for many companies, as credit has dried up, an important source of finance for R&D and other growth projects (Zhu, 2009).
Clearly, forecasting and the ability to understand risk (how far your forecasts might be wrong) is critically important to avoiding catastrophe, to managing relationships with stakeholders and to generating cash. In our view, however, the biggest value of effective forecasting lies in its contribution to steering the business; to the day-to-day decision-making that lies at the very heart of business, which is how we came to this topic. Decision-making is driven by information — without it management is no more than guesswork — and it comes in two ways. There is information about the past (actuals) and then there is information about the future (forecasts).
To demonstrate how the ability to anticipate (forecasting) contributes to decision-making - to navigating our way around the world - consider the act of crossing a road.
Without foresight, you could only proceed by trial and error, which involves doing something, observing the outcome and taking the appropriate corrective action. For example, this might involve stepping out in front of a car 50 yards away travelling at 50 miles per hour and observing that you almost get hit. The process of navigating using historical data is called feedback control for the obvious reason that information about the current state of affairs is fed back into the decision-making process. If you only use trial and error techniques to cross the road, you would be lucky to survive for a few days, even with quick and unambiguous feedback — of the sort that many organizations do not have.
The decision to cross the road involves a forecast — we ask ourselves ‘will that car arrive before I have reached the other side?’. This forecast is constantly updated with new information which we use to adjust our actions; we may speed up, slow down or turn back. In fact, almost every act requires a forecast of some sort; a source of ‘information about the future’. It is difficult for any organism (or organization) to survive without some sort of ability to anticipate. Most animals have to rely on the forecasting ability they were bequeathed in their genes, programmed by millennia of trial and error. We human beings are more fortunate. We are uniquely well equipped with large brains we use to build sophisticated models that enable us to project from the present into the future at will; sometimes for practical purposes (like crossing a road), at other times as a purely creative act (in science fiction literature for instance). Our ‘laboratory of the mind’ allows us to anticipate possible futures and to test out alternative actions before we decide what to do. This is called feedforward control - since we manufacture information about the potential future state of the world which is then fed forward into our thought and decision-making processes. This approach is less costly than learning from experience and is also safer and quicker. As human beings, we can modify our behavior by rearranging the way our neurons are organized using a process called ‘thought’, whereas the unfortunate amoeba has to rely on random mutation and death to improve its decision-making capabilities. ‘The fundamental purpose of brains is to produce the future’ says philosopher Daniel Dennett, ‘they are in essence anticipation machines’ (Dennett, 1991).
The good news for us humans is that we have evolved an ability to be very good at forecasting without having to think about it. The bad news is that because we have never had to think about it, we do not understand the process very well. As a result, when we try to design this capability into our organizations we often fail; forecasts are late, uninformative and unreliable.
The problems organizations face with forecasting are more serious than most people realize. First, bad forecasts are worse than no forecasts. If you have no forecast, you will at least be alert; you will always have a look out posted. A poor forecast, on the other hand, can foster dangerous complacency or misinform decision-making sending the ship on a collision course with hazardous reefs. Forecasts help us to work out what to look for - they distort our perception. If we have not contemplated that something might happen we may fail to even notice it until it is too late - which is why things are obvious in hindsight. Even worse, by the time you realize that your forecasting process has failed — as many business people have recently discovered — it is probably too late to do anything to improve it. Another challenge is that, unlike historic information which we only need to collect, forecasting information must be created; and the process of creation is likely to involve many different people in an organization, with different knowledge, experience and motivations. As Arie de Geus, formerly Head Planner at Shell remarks, ‘the problem managers face is not acting intelligently in isolation but tapping all of the company’s intelligence to foresee problems together’ (Geus, 1997). Finally, simply forecasting better is not enough; you have to know what you can do with the information if the picture the forecast paints is not what you want, so we need to understand the link with decision-making as well.
So, wouldn’t it be a good idea to understand what it takes to forecast well; to make our organizations ‘Future Ready’? Perhaps it would make sense to learn from nature (including our own brains) and then find a way to apply this knowledge to our collective endeavor in organizations. De Geus concludes, ‘a company is not hardwired to produce this sort of memory of the future. Managers must take specific action to produce one.’
Surely, given the importance of the process of forecasting and how long we have been at it in organizations, this knowledge already exists? There is certainly no shortage of literature on the subject. Management shelves in bookstores groan under the weight of worthy treatises on forecasting for managers (type in ‘business forecast’ on Amazon.com and you get over 25000 ‘hits’!). Is there anything left to say?
This is what we thought when we first tackled this topic 10 years ago. Despite the extensive literature on the subject of forecasting, what we found was that nobody seemed to have answers to the kind of practical questions that we were always being asked. What does a good forecast look like? How far ahead should we look? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How detailed should they be? How do we measure success? How do we deal with uncertainty? We are not alone in believing that there is a huge gap in knowledge that needs to be filled. Fritz Roemer, head of the Hackett Group’s Enterprise Performance Management Practice concurs: ‘[F]orecasting is broken in many, many companies that we see, and this is largely a result of ignorance. Nine out of ten companies simply don’t really have a proper understanding of what forecasting is and how to do it well’ (Roemer, 2008).
The ‘solutions’ touted by software suppliers and advisors to business provide only part of the answer. They promote a plethora of tools and techniques, but often with little guidance on how they can be made to work within an organizational framework, to help managers forecast more effectively. Many software companies have targeted improvements in forecasting efficiency by eliminating ‘spreadsheet hell’; or promise to improve forecasting techniques by introducing ‘rolling forecasts’ or ‘driver-based budgeting’. All these may be part of the solution, but only if they are used intelligently as part of a coherent, well informed approach.
Academics, on the other hand, seem to focus almost exclusively on a different problem: forecasting technique. This involves trying to find the best way to fit a trend to past data to help predict the future. While understanding trends is important, business people know that they cannot simply rely on the past to guide them in the future, not least because their job as managers is to make the future different to what it otherwise might be. If it isn’t, why did you need managers?
The conclusion we came to was that if the solution to managers’ problems did not exist we needed to create it. We set out to discover how different sorts of organizations (social and biological) and different branches of learning tackle the problem of anticipating the future. What we discovered is that few of the challenges faced by business people are unique. Effective solutions often already exist. What is missing, which is what we aim to provide in this book, is a synthesis of this knowledge and a way of communicating it in an accessible fashion to a time challenged, pragmatic business audience.
Between us we have over 50 years of hands on experience in consulting and as practicing professionals with a particular interest in forecasting in finance — revenues, profit, cash and so on, and this bias is reflected in this book. The book is, however, also useful for those that have an interest in other sorts of forecasting. The principles involved in forecasting in finance are the same as those needed to effectively forecast at an operational level, in sales and in the supply chain, so this book will be valuable for professionals in a wide range of roles. In addition, we often find that a poor, misaligned, finance process handicaps forecasting processes elsewhere in the organization and leads to other parts of the organization being deprived of the resources needed to manage their affairs effectively. ‘Every living entity consumes’ writes Arie de Geus in his book The Living Company, ‘and money serves in a large corporation as the way of measuring what has been consumed. As a result of this role, when properly managed, the financing of a company becomes a governor of a living company’s growth and evolution.’ We are also prominent in the ‘Beyond Budgeting’ movement; indeed we came to the subject of forecasting because we are convinced that, for many organizations, improving forecasting processes was an important first step on the journey to eliminating traditional budgeting. Classical budgeting practice, and the mindset and behavior that often accompany it, are often the major barrier to change. However, providing you are aware of some of the potential pitfalls and are prepared to make some adjustments, you can do a better job of forecasting without abandoning budgets altogether.
The book is comprised of four sections, each with a different purpose, often aimed at different segments of the readership.
 
Section 1 lays out the problem and so will be relevant to all readers. In two parts it answers these questions:
• What is the problem with forecasting?
• How do I know if I have a problem?
• What are the benefits I can expect by improving the process?
Section 2 focuses on ‘Forecasting Principles’. This provides the reader with a basic understanding of the nature and practice of effective forecasting and so provides the foundation for the mastery of forecasting. It is important for all readers to give this section their full attention. None of the content should be beyond the average manager; it assumes no mathematical or other technical knowledge or aptitude. Each of the five chapters tackles a separate theme and set of questions:
• Chapter 2: Mastering Purpose
• What is the difference between a prediction and a forecast?
• What is the definition of a forecast?
• What are the qualities of a good forecast?
• What kind of information do I need in a forecast?
• How accurate does a forecast need to be?
• Chapter 3: Mastering Time
• What types of forecast are there, and how do they differ?
• How far ahead should I forecast?
• How often should I forecast?
• How should forecasting be linked to decision-making?
• Chapter 4: Mastering Models
• How can I produce forecasts? What options are available?
• How should I choose between them?
• What are the major causes of error in forecasts?
• What role does judgment play in forecasting?
• Is it possible to get better at judgment and if so, how?
• Chapter 5: Mastering Measurement
• What role does measurement play in forecasting?
• What should I measure?
• How and when should I measure?
• How can I improve forecast quality?
• Chapter 6: Mastering Risks
• Why do I need to consider forecast risk?
• What is risk and how does it differ from uncertainty?
• How do I go about assessing risk?
• What should I do with risk information?
Section 3 is titled ‘Praxis’. It tackles some of the issues that arise when we translate the principles outlined in the last section into practice. It is primarily aimed at practitioners - those responsible for designing, implementing and running forecast processes but it would also reward the general reader. Chapter 7 ‘Mastering Process’ provides answers to three types of problems often encountered when we set about embedding forecasting practice into an organization:
• Theme 1: How should you design, organize and run a forecast process?
• Theme 2: In a large or complex organization with many forecast processes, should they be linked, and if so, how?
• Theme 3: Who should be responsible for running the forecast process?
Section 4 deals with transformation. This section targets those responsible for designing and implementing change in the organization, but again the content is non-technical and of general interest. The three major topics here are:
• Chapter 8: What is the best way to tackle the process of change?
• Chapter 9: If traditional budgeting practices and mindsets present a major barrier to the implementation of effective forecasting in my organization, how should I set about overcoming it, short of abandoning budgeting?
• Chapter 10: What is the best alternative to conventional budgeting?
After Section 4 and the concluding Chapter 11 you will find a Glossary which summarizes the key terms and concepts used in this book. The 30 principles of effective forecast process design are then summarized in Appendix 1.
The aim of this book has been to describe simple and practical steps that any organization can apply to do a better job of forecasting. While the ideas in this book have all been thoroughly tested in practice, the real power of the ideas comes from the fact that they are well grounded in theory. Many of the concepts have been sourced from academic work in systems science and Appendix 2 sets out some of the basic ideas, which will be of interest for the theoretically minded or inquisitive reader.
Different sections of the book are aimed at different readerships. There are other ways in which readers with different interests and learning styles can be selective about what they read. Our aim is to communicate our ideas simply and quickly so the body text is straightforward and self-contained. For readers who want to go into more detail, the main text is interspersed with ‘panels’ which provide reinforcement, background, illustrative examples or practical guidance. There are three types of panel:
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Key Concept
This donates a critical point of importance to all readers. The other two types of panels are optional.
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More
Used in panels that contain technical or practical information which enables readers to explore a topic in more detail. This includes practical tips or explanations of techniques for those involved in implementation.
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Examples
Panels with this symbol contain examples, exercises or short case studies.