Contents
Cover
Series
Title Page
Copyright Page
Dedication
Preface
THE HEINZ CASE STUDY
HOW THIS BOOK IS STRUCTURED
Part One: Leveraged Buyout Overview
Chapter 1: Leveraged Buyout Theory
CASH AVAILABILITY, INTEREST, AND DEBT PAY-DOWN
OPERATION IMPROVEMENTS
MULTIPLE EXPANSION
WHAT MAKES GOOD LEVERAGED BUYOUT?
EXIT OPPORTUNITIES
IS HEINZ A LEVERAGED BUYOUT?
Chapter 2: What Is Value?
BOOK VALUE
MARKET VALUE
ENTERPRISE VALUE
MULTIPLES
THREE CORE METHODS OF VALUATION
Chapter 3: Leveraged Buyout Analysis
PURCHASE PRICE
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS
IRR ANALYSIS
Part Two: Leveraged Buyout Full-Scale Model
Chapter 4: Assumptions
PURCHASE PRICE
SOURCES OF FUNDS
USES OF FUNDS
Chapter 5: The Income Statement
REVENUE
COST OF GOODS SOLD
OPERATING EXPENSES
OTHER INCOME
DEPRECIATION AND AMORTIZATION
INTEREST
TAXES
NONRECURRING AND EXTRAORDINARY ITEMS
DISTRIBUTIONS
SHARES
HEINZ INCOME STATEMENT
LAST TWELVE MONTHS (LTM)
INCOME STATEMENT—PROJECTIONS
Chapter 6: The Cash Flow Statement
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES
CASH FLOW FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES
FINANCIAL STATEMENT FLOWS EXAMPLE
HEINZ CASH FLOW STATEMENT
HEINZ LAST TWELVE MONTHS (LTM) CASH FLOW
CASH FLOW STATEMENT PROJECTIONS
Chapter 7: The Balance Sheet
ASSETS
LIABILITIES
HEINZ BALANCE SHEET
Chapter 8: Balance Sheet Adjustments
THE BUYER IS PAYING FOR
THE BUYER IS RECEIVING
GOODWILL
HEINZ BALANCE SHEET ADJUSTMENTS
Chapter 9: Depreciation Schedule
STRAIGHT-LINE DEPRECIATION
ACCELERATED DEPRECIATION
DEFERRED TAXES
PROJECTING DEPRECIATION
PROJECTING AMORTIZATION
PROJECTING DEFERRED TAXES
Chapter 10: Working Capital
ASSET
LIABILITY
OPERATING WORKING CAPITAL
HEINZ’S OPERATING WORKING CAPITAL
PROJECTING OPERATING WORKING CAPITAL
OPERATING WORKING CAPITAL AND THE CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Chapter 11: Balance Sheet Projections
CASH FLOW DRIVES BALANCE SHEET VERSUS BALANCE SHEET DRIVES CASH FLOW
BALANCING AN UNBALANCED BALANCE SHEET
Chapter 12: Debt Schedule and Circular References
DEBT SCHEDULE STRUCTURE
MODELING THE DEBT SCHEDULE
CIRCULAR REFERENCES
AUTOMATIC DEBT PAY-DOWNS
BASIC SWITCHES
FINALIZING THE MODEL
Chapter 13: Leveraged Buyout Returns
EXIT VALUE
RETURNS TO 3G CAPITAL
MULTIPLE EXPANSION
DEBT PAY-DOWN
CONCLUSION
Part Three: Advanced Leveraged Buyout Overview
Chapter 14: Accelerated Depreciation
MACRS
ACCELERATED VERSUS STRAIGHT-LINE DEPRECIATION
Chapter 15: Preferred Securities, Dividends, and Returns to Berkshire Hathaway
PREFERRED SECURITIES
PREFERRED DIVIDENDS
RETURNS TO BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY
Chapter 16: Debt Covenant Ratios, and Debt Fee Amortization
COVERAGE RATIOS
LEVERAGE RATIOS
DEBT FEE CAPITALIZATION AND AMORTIZATION
Chapter 17: Paid-in-Kind Securities
Appendixes
Appendix A: Model Quick Steps
Appendix B: Financial Statement Flows
INCOME STATEMENT TO CASH FLOW
CASH FLOW TO BALANCE SHEET
Appendix C: Excel Hot Keys
About the Companion Website
About the Author
Index
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:
Pignataro, Paul.
Leveraged buyouts: a practical guide to investment banking and private equity / Paul Pignataro.
pages cm. — (Wiley finance series)
Includes index.
ISBN 978-1-118-67454-3 (cloth)—ISBN 978-1-118-67458-1 (ePDF)—
ISBN 978-1-118-67445-1 (ePub) 1. Leveraged buyouts. 2. Consolidation and merger of corporations. 3. Investment banking. 4. Private equity. I. Title.
HD2746.5.P54 2013
658.1'62—dc23
2013023885
This book is dedicated to every investor in the pursuit of enhancing wealth. Those who have gained, and those who have lost—this continuous struggle has confounded the minds of many. This book should be one small tool to help further said endeavor; and if successful, the seed planted will contribute to a future of more informed investors and smarter markets.
Preface
In the 1970s and 1980s, the corporate takeover market began to surge. As a means to continue to enhance corporate wealth and leadership, growth through mergers or acquisitions flooded the corporate environment. Although such mergers and acquisitions had existed for decades, the mid-1970s led the multibillion-dollar hostile takeover race. This was followed by a surge in the 1980s of the leveraged buyout, a derivative of the takeover, culminating with the most noted leveraged buyout of its time, the $25 billion buyout of RJR Nabisco by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts in 1989.
A leveraged buyout, most broadly, is the acquisition of a company using a significant amount of debt to meet the acquisition cost. Arguably, the increase in leveraged buyouts in the 1980s was partly due to greater access to the high-yield debt markets (so-called junk bonds), pioneered by Michael Milken. Access to such aggressive types of lending allowed buyers to borrow more money to fund such large acquisitions. The more debt borrowed, the less equity needed out-of-pocket, leading to potentially higher returns. This concept of higher returns for less equity sparked interest among many funds and even individual investors, and extended worldwide. From buyouts of small $10 million businesses to the recent $25 billion potential buyout of Dell, small investors, funds, and enthusiasts alike have been fascinated by the mechanics, aggressiveness, and high-return potential of leveraged buyouts.
This book seeks to give any investor the fundamental tools to help analyze a leveraged buyout and determine if the potential returns are worth the investment. These fundamental tools are used by investment banks and private equity funds worldwide. We will evaluate the potential leveraged buyout of the H.J. Heinz Company, determining its current financial standing, projecting its future performance, and estimating the potential return on investment using the exact same methods used by the bulge bracket investment banks and top private equity firms. We will have you step into the role of an analyst on Wall Street to give you a firsthand perspective and understanding of how the modeling process works, and to give you the tools to create your own analyses. Whether you are an investor looking to make your own acquisitions or a fund, these analyses are invaluable in the process. This book is ideal for both those wanting to create their own analyses and those wanting to enter the investment banking or private equity field. This is also a guide designed for investment banking or private equity professionals themselves if they need a thorough review or simply a leveraged buyout modeling refresher.
THE HEINZ CASE STUDY
PITTSBURGH & OMAHA, Neb. & NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)—H.J. Heinz Company (NYSE: HNZ) (“Heinz”) today announced that it has entered into a definitive merger agreement to be acquired by an investment consortium comprised of Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital.
Under the terms of the agreement, which has been unanimously approved by Heinz’s Board of Directors, Heinz shareholders will receive $72.50 in cash for each share of common stock they own, in a transaction valued at $28 billion, including the assumption of Heinz’s outstanding debt. The per share price represents a 20% premium to Heinz’s closing share price of $60.48 on February 13, 2013, a 19% premium to Heinz’s all-time high share price, a 23% premium to the 90-day average Heinz share price and a 30% premium to the one-year average share price.
(Heinz Press Release, February 14, 2013)
In this press release dated February 14, 2013, Heinz announces the possibility of being acquired by both Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital. We will analyze this potential buyout of Heinz throughout this book. Heinz manufactures thousands of food products on six continents, and markets these products in more than 200 countries worldwide. The company claims to have the number-one or number-two brand in 50 countries. Each year Heinz produces 650 million bottles of ketchup and approximately two single-serve packets of ketchup for every man, woman, and child on the planet. The company employs 32, 000 people worldwide.
What is the viability of such a buyout? How are Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital finding value in such an investment? What are their potential returns? There is a technical analysis used by Wall Street analysts to help answer such questions. We will walk you through the complete buyout analysis as a Wall Street analyst would conduct that analysis.
It is important to note that the modeling methodology presented in this book is just one view. The analysis of Heinz and the results of that analysis do not directly reflect my belief, but rather, a possible conclusion for instructional purposes only based on limiting the most extreme of variables. There are other possibilities and paths that I have chosen not to include in this book. Many ideas presented here are debatable, and I welcome the debate. The point is to understand the methods and, further, the concepts behind the methods to equip you properly with the tools to drive your own analyses.
HOW THIS BOOK IS STRUCTURED
This book is divided into three parts:
In Part One, we explain the concepts and mechanics of a leveraged buyout. Before building a complete model, it is important to step through, from a high level, the purposes of a leveraged buyout and the theory of how a leveraged buyout works. A high-level analysis helps us to understand the importance of key variables and is crucial to understanding how various assumption drivers affect potential returns.
In Part Two, we build a complete leveraged buyout model of Heinz. We analyze the company’s historical performance and step through techniques to make accurate projections of the business’s future performance. The goal of this part is not only to understand how to build a model of Heinz, but to extract the modeling techniques used by analysts and to apply those techniques to any investment.
Part Three also adds more modeling complexity, ideal for those who already have basic experience modeling leveraged buyouts. Adjusting scenarios, advanced securities such as paid-in-kind (PIK) securities and preferred dividends, and the capitalization and amortization of debt fees add more complexity and will further your understanding of using leveraged buyouts in practice.
The book is designed to have you build your own leveraged buyout model on Heinz step-by-step. The model template can be found on the companion website associated with this book and is titled “NYSF_Leveraged_Buyout_Model_Template.xls” To access the site, see the About the Companion Website section at the back of this book.
PART One
Leveraged Buyout Overview
Aleveraged buyout (LBO) is a fundamental, yet complex acquisition commonly used in the investment banking and private equity industries. We will take a look at the basic concepts, benefits, and drawbacks of a leveraged buyout. We will understand how to effectively analyze an LBO. We will further analyze the fundamental impact of such a transaction and calculate the expected return to an investor. Last, we will spend time interpreting the variables and financing structures to understand how to maximize investor rate of return (IRR).
The three goals of this part are:
CHAPTER 1
Leveraged Buyout Theory
Aleveraged buyout is an acquisition of a company using a significant amount of debt to meet the cost of the acquisition. This allows for the acquisition of a business with less equity (out-of-pocket) capital. Think of a mortgage on a house. If you take out a mortgage to fund the purchase of a house, you can buy a larger house with less out-of-pocket cash (your down payment). Over time, your income will be used to make the required principal (and interest) mortgage payments; as you pay down those principal payments, and as the debt balance reduces, your equity in the house increases. Effectively, the debt is being converted to equity. And maybe you can sell the house for a profit and receive a return. This concept, on the surface, is similar to a leverage buyout. Although we use a significant amount of borrowed money to buy a business in an LBO, the cash flows produced by the business will hopefully, over time, pay down the debt. Debt will convert to equity, and we can hope to sell the business for a profit.
There are three core components that contribute to the success of a leveraged buyout:
CASH AVAILABILITY, INTEREST, AND DEBT PAY-DOWN
This is the concept illustrated in the chapter’s first paragraph. The cash being produced by the business will be used to pay down debt and interest. It is the reduction of debt that will be converted into the equity value of the business.
It is for this reason that a company with high and consistent cash flows makes for a good leveraged buyout investment.
OPERATION IMPROVEMENTS
Once we own the business, we plan on making some sort of improvements to increase the operating performance of that business. Increasing the operating performance of the business will ultimately increase cash flows, which will pay down debt faster. But, more important, operating improvements will increase the overall value of the business, which means we can then (we hope) sell it at a higher price. Taking the previous mortgage example, we had hoped to make a profit by selling the house after several years. If we make some renovations and improvements to the house, we can hope to sell it for a higher price. For this reason, investors and funds would look for businesses they can improve as good leveraged buyout investments. Often the particular investor or fund team has particular expertise in the industry. Maybe they have connections to larger sources of revenue or larger access to distribution channels based on their experience where they feel they can grow the business faster. Or, maybe the investor or fund team sees major problems with management they know they can fix. Any of these operation improvements could increase the overall value of the business.
MULTIPLE EXPANSION
Multiple expansion is the expectation that the market value of the business will increase. This would result in an increase in the expected multiple one can sell the business for. We will later see, in a business entity, we will most likely base a purchase and sale off of multiples. We will also conservatively assume the exit multiple used to sell the business will be equal to the purchase multiple (the multiple calculated based on the purchase price of the business). This would certainly enhance the business returns.
WHAT MAKES GOOD LEVERAGED BUYOUT?
In summary, a good leveraged buyout has strong and consistent cash flows that can be expected to pay down a portion of the debt raised and related interest. Further, the investor or fund sees ways to improve the operating performance of the business. It is hoped that the combination of debt converting into equity and the increase in operating performance would significantly increase the value of the business. This results in an increase in returns to the investor or fund. The next pages of this book step through such an analysis in its entirety and are intended to give you the core understanding of how such an analysis can provide not only benefits to a company, but high returns to an investor. This will also indicate pitfalls many investors face and reasons why many LBOs may not work out as planned.
EXIT OPPORTUNITIES
The financial returns from a leveraged buyout are not truly realized until the business is exited, or sold. There are several common ways to exit a business leveraged buyout:
IS HEINZ A LEVERAGED BUYOUT?
There is a debate on whether the Heinz situation is technically a leveraged buyout. I believe we can all agree this is in fact a buyout; Heinz is being acquired by 3G Capital and Berkshire Hathaway. But is the buyout leveraged? Those believing that the Heinz deal is not a leveraged buyout argue that the debt raised to meet the acquisition cost is not significant enough to constitute a leveraged buyout. I agree that what justifies the amount of debt raised to be significant is not formally defined in the leveraged buyout world. However, we will see in Chapter 4 that the amount of debt raised is approximately 40 percent to 45 percent of total funds used to acquire Heinz; I believe this is a significant amount of debt. The second important thing to consider is how the debt is being raised. In a leveraged buyout, typically the debt raised is backed by the assets of the company being purchased. As this will most likely be the case for Heinz, I would certainly consider this a leveraged buyout.
Others also argue this is not technically a leveraged buyout based on intent. In other words, the Heinz buyers are stating that their intent is not to exit the investment after a fixed time horizon, as is often the case for large buyout funds. Although this may be true, I am not sure “intent” is an appropriate determinant of what constitutes a leveraged buyout. It is still a buyout; it is still leveraged. Whether you believe the transaction is a leveraged buyout still stands as a relatively subjective debate. For purposes of instruction, we will model the case as if it were a full-fledged leveraged buyout. What’s interesting is that the modeling does not change either way.
CHAPTER 2
What Is Value?
Before getting into the leveraged buyout analysis, a valuation overview is in order. The most important question before even getting into the mechanics is “What is value?” To help answer this question, we note there are two major categories of value:
BOOK VALUE
The book value can be determined by the balance sheet. The total book value of a company’s property, for example, can be found under the net property, plant, and equipment (PP&E) in the assets section of the balance sheet. The book value of the shareholders’ interest in the company (not including the noncontrolling interest holders) can be found under shareholders’ equity.
MARKET VALUE
The market value of a company can be defined by its market capitalization, or shares outstanding times share price.
Both the book value and market value represent the equity value of a business. The equity value of a business is the value of the business attributable to just equity holders—that is, the value of the business excluding debt lenders, noncontrolling interest holders, and other obligations.
Shareholders’ equity, for example, is the value of the company’s assets less the value of the company’s liabilities. So this shareholders’ equity value (making sure noncontrolling interest is not included in shareholders’ equity) is the value of the business excluding lenders and other obligations—an equity value. The market value, or market capitalization, is based on the stock price, which is inherently an equity value since equity investors value a company’s stock after payments to debt lenders and other obligations.
ENTERPRISE VALUE
Enterprise value (also known as firm value) is defined as the value of the entire business, including debt lenders and other obligations. We will see why the importance of enterprise value is that it approaches an approximate value of the operating assets of an entity. To be more specific, “debt lenders and other obligations” can include short-term debts, long-term debts, current portion of long-term debts, capital lease obligations, preferred securities, noncontrolling interests, and other nonoperating liabilities (e.g., unallocated pension funds). So, for complete reference, enterprise value can be calculated as:
We will explain why subtracting cash and cash equivalents is significant. So, to arrive at enterprise value on a book value basis, we take the shareholders’ equity (book value) and add back any potential debts and obligations less cash and cash equivalents. Similarly, if we add to market capitalization (market value) any potential debts and obligations less cash and cash equivalents, we approach the enterprise value of a company on a market value basis.
Here is a quick recap:
| Valuation Category | Book Value | Market Value |
| Equity Value | Shareholders’ Equity | Market Capitalization |
| Enterprise Value | Shareholders’ Equity plus potential debts and obligations less cash and cash equivalents | Market Capitalization plus potential debts and obligations less cash and cash equivalents |
Note: “Potential debts and obligations” can include short-term debts, long-term debts, current portion of long-term debts, capital lease obligations, preferred securities, noncontrolling interests, and other nonoperating liabilities (e.g., unallocated pension funds).
Let’s take the example of a company that has shareholders’ equity of $10 million according to its balance sheet. Let’s also say it has $5 million in total liabilities. We will assume no noncontrolling interest holders in these examples to better illustrate the main idea. As per the balance sheet formula (where Assets = Liabilities + Shareholders’ Equity), the total value of the company’s assets is $15 million. So $10 million is the book equity value of the company.
Let’s now say the company trades in the market at a premium to its book equity value; the market capitalization of the company is $12 million. The market capitalization of a company is an important value, because it is current; it is the value of a business as determined by the market (Share Price × Shares Outstanding). When we take the market capitalization and add the total liabilities of $5 million, we get a value that represents the value of the company’s total assets as determined by the market.
However, in valuation we typically take market capitalization or book value and add back not the total liabilities, but just debts and obligations as noted earlier to get to enterprise value. The balance sheet formula can help us explain why:
Using this equation, let’s list out the actual balance sheet items:
To better illustrate the theory, in this example we assume the company has no noncontrolling interests, no preferred securities, and no other nonoperating liabilities such as unallocated pension funds; it has just short-term debt, long-term debt, and cash.
We will abbreviate some line items so the formula is easier to read:
Now we need to move everything that’s not related to debt—the accounts payable (AP) and accrued expenses (AE)—to the other side of the equation. We can simply subtract AP and AE from both sides of the equation to get:
And we can regroup the terms on the right to get:
Notice that AR + Inv. − AP − AE, or current assets less current liabilities, is working capital, so:
Now remember that enterprise value is shareholders’ equity (or market capitalization) plus debt less cash, so we need to subtract cash from both sides of the equation:
Short-term debt plus long-term debt less cash and cash equivalents is also known as net debt. So, this gives us:
This is a very important formula. So, when adding net debt to shareholders’ equity or market capitalization, we are backing into the value of the company’s PP&E and working capital in the previous example, or more generally the core operating assets of the business. So, enterprise value is a way of determining the implied value of a company’s core operating assets. Further, enterprise value based on market capitalization, or
is a way to approach the value of the operating assets as determined by the market.
Note that we had simplified the example for illustration. If the company had noncontrolling interests, preferred securities, or other nonoperating liabilities such as unallocated pension funds in addition to debts, the formula would read:
Quite often people wonder why cash needs to be removed from net debt in this equation. This is also a very common investment banking interview question. And, as illustrated here, cash is not considered an operating asset; it is not an asset that will be generating future income for the business (arguably). And so, true value of a company to an investor is the value of just those assets that will continue to produce profit and growth in the future. This is one of the reasons why, in a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, we are concerned only about the cash being produced from the operating assets of the business. It is also crucial to understand this core valuation concept, because the definition of an operating asset, or the interpretation of which portions of the company will provide future value, can differ from company to market to industry. Rather than depending on simple formulas, it is important to understand the reason behind them in this rapidly changing environment so you can be equipped with the proper tools to create your own formulas. For example, do Internet businesses rely on PP&E as the core operating assets? If not, would the current enterprise value formula have meaning? How about in emerging markets?
MULTIPLES
Multiples are metrics that compare the value of a business relative to its operations. A company could have a market capitalization value of $100 million, but what does that mean in relation to its operating performance? If that company is producing $10 million in net income, then its value is 10 times the net income it produces; “10x net income” is a market value multiple. These multiples are used to compare the performance of one company to another. So let’s say I wanted to compare this business to another business that also has $100 million in market cap. How would I know which business is the better investment? The market capitalization value itself is arbitrary in this case unless it is compared to the actual performance of the business. So if the other company is producing $5 million in net income, its multiple is 20x; its market capitalization is 20 times the net income it produces. As an investor, I would prefer to invest in the lower multiple, as it is the cheaper investment; it is more net income for a lower market price. So, multiples help us compare relative values to a business’s operations.
Other multiples exist, depending on what underlying operating metric one would like to use as the basis of comparison. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT); earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA); and revenue can be used instead of net income. But how do we determine which are better metrics to compare? Let’s take an example of two companies with similar operations. See Table 2.1.
TABLE 2.1 Business Comparison
| Metric | Company A | Company B |
| Revenue | $10, 000.0 | $10, 000.0 |
| Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) | 3, 500.0 | 3, 500.0 |
| Operating Expenses | 1, 500.0 | 1, 500.0 |
| EBITDA | 5, 000.0 | 5, 000.0 |
| Depreciation | 500.0 | 3, 000.0 |
| EBIT | 4, 500.0 | 2, 000.0 |
| Interest | 0.0 | 2, 000.0 |
| EBT | 4, 500.0 | 0.0 |
| Taxes (@ 35%) | 1, 575.0 | 0.0 |
| Net Income | 2, 925.0 | 0.0 |
Let’s say we want to consider investing in either Company A or Company B. Company A is a small distribution business, a package delivery business that has generated $10, 000 in revenue in a given period. This is a start-up company run and operated by one person. It has a cost structure that has netted $5, 000 in EBITDA. Company B is also a small delivery business operating in a different region. Company B is producing the same revenue and has the same operating cost structure, so it is also producing $5, 000 in EBITDA. The current owner of Company A operates his business out of his home. He parks the delivery truck in his garage, so he has minimal depreciation costs and no interest expense. The owner of Company B, however, operates his business differently. He has built a warehouse for storage and to park the truck. This has increased the depreciation expense and has created additional interest expense, bringing net income to $0. If we were to compare the two businesses based on net income, Company A is clearly performing better than Company B. But, what if we are only concerned about the core operations? What if we are only concerned about the volume of packages being delivered, the number of customers, and the direct costs associated to the deliveries? What if we were looking to acquire Company A or B, for example? In that case, let’s say we don’t care about Company B’s debt and its warehouse, as we would sell the warehouse and pay down the debt. Here, EBITDA would be a better underlying comparable measure. From an operations perspective, looking at EBITDA, both companies are performing well and we could have been misled in that case by looking only at net income.
So, although market capitalization/net income is a common multiple, there are other multiples using metrics such as EBIT or EBITDA. However, since EBIT and EBITDA are values before interest is taken into account, we cannot compare them to market capitalization. Remember that market capitalization, based on the share price, is the value of a business after lenders are paid; EBITDA (before interest) is the value before lenders have been paid. So, adding net debt (plus potentially other items as discussed previously in the enterprise value section) back to market capitalization gives us a numerator (enterprise value) that we can use with EBIT or EBITDA as a multiple:
or:
So, in short, if a financial metric you want to use as the comparable metric is after debt or interest, it must be related to market capitalization—this is a market value multiple. If the financial metric is before debt or interest, it is related to enterprise value—an enterprise value multiple.
| Market Value Multiples | Enterprise Value Multiples |
| Market Capitalization/Net Income | Enterprise Value/Sales |
| Price per Share/EPS | Enterprise Value/EBITDA |
| Market Capitalization/Book Value | Enterprise Value/EBIT |
THREE CORE METHODS OF VALUATION
The value definitions and multiples from earlier in the chapter are applied in several ways to best approach how much an entity could be worth. There are three major methods utilized to approach this value:
Each of these three methods is based on wide-ranging variables and could be considered quite subjective. Also, the methods approach value from very different perspectives. So we can have relatively strong support of value from a financial perspective if all three methods fall within similar valuation ranges.
Note that a leveraged buyout can also be considered a fourth method of valuation. The required exit in order to achieve a desired return on investment is the value of the business to the investor. This is a valuation method sometimes used by funds.
Comparable Company Analysis
The comparable company analysis compares one company with companies that are similar in size, product, and geography. The comparable company analysis utilizes multiples as a measure of comparison. If the peers’ multiples are consistently higher than the multiples of the company we are valuing, it could mean that our company is undervalued. Conversely, if the peers’ multiples are consistently lower than the multiples of the company we are valuing, it could mean that our company is overvalued. The comparable company analysis has one major advantage over the other valuation methods:
However, the comparable company analysis has the following drawbacks:
Precedent Transactions Analysis
The precedent transactions analysis assesses relative value by looking at multiples of historical transactions. The perspective is that the value of the company we are valuing is relative to the price others have paid for similar companies. So, if we look for other companies similar to ours that have been acquired, we can compare their purchase multiples to assess the approximate value of our business.
Purchase Multiples
Purchase multiples are similar to market multiples (described previously), except the numerator in a purchase multiple is based on the price paid for an entity as opposed to the current market value.
Enterprise value/EBITDA, for example, is based on (market capitalization + net debt)/EBITDA in a market multiple. But in a purchase multiple, enterprise value/EBITDA is based on (purchase price + net debt)/EBITDA. Net debt is plus potentially noncontrolling interests, preferred securities, unallocated pension funds (and arguably other nonoperating liabilities), as discussed previously in the enterprise value section.
A precedent transactions analysis has this major advantage over the other valuation methods:
And there are several major drawbacks to the analysis:
TABLE 2.2 Multiples
| Market Value | Enterprise Value (EV) | |
| Market Multiples | Market Cap/Net Income | EV/EBIT |
| Price per Share/EPS (P/E) | EV/EBITDA EV/Sales (where EV is Market Cap + Net Debt*) |
|
| Purchase Multiples | Purchase Price/Net Income | EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA EV/Sales (where EV is Purchase Price + Net Debt*) |
*Plus potentially noncontrolling interests, preferred securities, and unallocated pension funds (and arguably other nonoperating liabilities), as discussed in the enterprise value section.
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
The discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is known as the most technical of the three major methods, as it is based on the company’s cash flows. The discounted cash flow method takes the company’s projected unlevered free cash flow (UFCF) and discounts it back to present value. We typically project the company’s cash flows over a fixed time horizon (five to seven years, for example). We then create a terminal value, which is the value of the business from the last projected year into perpetuity. The enterprise value of the business is the sum of the present value of all the projected cash flows and the present value of the terminal value.
The discounted cash flow analysis has this major advantage over the other valuation methods:
The analysis also has several disadvantages:
Again, while all three major valuation methodologies have significant drawbacks, they do have strengths. It is important to play the strengths of each off of the others to come up with an approximate value of the entire business. If you are interested in seeing how that is technically done, I recommend reading my book Financial Modeling and Valuation: A Practical Guide to Investment Banking and Private Equity (John Wiley & Sons, 2013), which steps through a complete valuation analysis on Walmart.