Copyright © Daniel J. Fiorino 2018
The right of Daniel J. Fiorino to be identified as Author of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
First published in 2018 by Polity Press
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ISBN-13: 978-1-5095-2395-5
ISBN-13: 978-1-5095-2396-2(pb)
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1.1 Main Greenhouse Gases and their Global Warming Potential (GWP)
1.2 Characteristics of Regime Types with Examples
1.3 Population and Emissions by Regime Type in EIU Democracy Index
2.1 Summary of the Bases for the Two Ideal Regime Types
3.1 Structural and Political Factors Explaining Variations Among Democracies
The end of 2017 brought reports that the extent and impacts of climate change could be far worse than previous scenarios had suggested. A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in the United States concluded there is a one in twenty chance that the world could experience “catastrophic” warming between 2050 and 2100, enough to pose an “existential” threat to global populations.1
The next month, the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Atmosphere Watch determined that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases had reached their highest level in 800,000 years. Rapidly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, the WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin found, “have the potential to initiate unpredictable changes in the climate system … leading to severe ecological and economic disruptions.”2 A week later, an updated National Climate Assessment in the United States issued what the Washington Post termed a “dire” report that warns of “a worst-case scenario where seas would rise as high as eight feet by the year 2100, and details climate-related damage across the United States that is already unfolding as a result of an average global temperature increase of 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since 1900.”3
All of this came on top of years of accumulating evidence on the severity of the threats posed by climate change and its ecological, health, economic, social, and political impacts. These threats, most of them concentrated on the poorest and most vulnerable of the world’s population, have created doubts about the ability of governments around the world to cope with the causes and impacts of climate change. Democracies in particular have been the object of skepticism. Confronting the existential and catastrophic threat of a changing climate is, many critics argue, akin to fighting a major war. Whether democracy is able to effectively take up the challenge of mitigating and adapting to climate change will determine what kind of planet we pass on to future generations.
This book considers the interrelationships and interdependencies between two of the big issues of our time. One is climate change, often described as the greatest governance challenge of this century. The other is the quality and durability of democracy, the benefits of which are substantial but whose capacities for handling climate mitigation and adaptation have been doubted.
Thanks first go to Louise Knight at Polity Press, who encouraged me to explore this topic and offered support and guidance throughout the process. Thanks also to Nekane Tanaka Galdos at Polity for help at many points along the way and to Tim Clark for his careful copy-editing.
I also want to acknowledge the reviewers for Polity, who were thorough, thoughtful, and offered valuable advice. Special thanks for taking the time to review the manuscript and offer many valuable suggestions go to Jonathan Boston of Victoria University in New Zealand and to Robert Durant and Paul Bledsoe of American University in the United States. Thanks also to American University students Mikayla Pellerin and David Peters for their research assistance.
I am indebted to my wife Beth Ann for her encouragement and support, and to Matthew and Jacob, whose interest and stake in the future of both the climate and democracy are compelling.