Cover
Title Page
Preface
Abbreviations and Symbols
1 The Changing Climate
1. Introduction
2. Recent Impacts of Climate Change
3. Reports From the Front Line
4. Future Shock
5. Warming the Oceans
6. Multidimensional Threats
7. References
2 Small Island Developing States
1. Meet the SIDS
2. Demography
3. Social Development
4. Economic Vulnerability
5. Climate Change Impacts on Small Islands
6. Coastal Zones: A Clear and Present Danger
7. Coastal Zones: Terrestrial and Intertidal Impacts
8. Coastal Marine Ecosystems
9. Low Elevation Coastal Zones
10. Agriculture
11. Fisheries
12. Food Insecurity
13. Undernourishment in the SIDS
14. Poverty and Climate Change
15. Tourism
16. Freshwater Resources
17. Human Health
18. Climate‐driven Migration
19. References
3 Adapting to a Changing Climate
1. Ecosystem‐based Adaptation
2. Adaptation in Coastal and Marine Environments
3. Marine Protected Areas
4. Three Bays Protected Area in Haiti
5. Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture
6. Conservation Agriculture
7. Rice Production
8. Irrigation
9. Adaptation Technologies for Agriculture
10. Water Resources Management
11. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)
12. Agricultural Water Management (AWM)
13. Rainwater Harvesting and Management
14. Wastewater Treatment and Recycling
15. Reclaimed Water for Agricultural Use
16. Fisheries and Aquaculture
17. Disaster Risk Management
18. Adaptation and Mitigation Synergies
19. References
4 Adapting Energy Systems
1. Depending on Energy
2. Access to Electricity
3. Renewable Energy
4. Photovoltaic (PV) Electricity
5. Minigrid Systems
6. Distributed PV Systems
7. Wind Power
8. Solar Water Heaters
9. Hydropower
10. Geothermal Energy
11. Solar Thermal Power
12. Energy Efficiency
13. References
5 Managing Adaptation
1. The Key Climate Hazards
2. The Regulatory Framework
3. National Adaptation Programs of Action
4. Financing Adaptation
5. The Green Climate Fund
6. The Adaptation Fund
7. Programme Development
8. Geographical Information Systems
9. References
6 Country Profiles
1. American Samoa
2. Anguilla
3. Antigua and Barbuda
4. Aruba
5. The Bahamas
6. Bahrain
7. Barbados
8. Belize
9. British Virgin Islands
10. Cabo Verde
11. Comoros
12. Cook Islands
13. Cuba
14. Dominica
15. Dominican Republic
16. Fiji
17. French Polynesia
18. Grenada
19. Guam
20. Guinea‐Bissau
21. Guyana
22. Haiti
23. Jamaica
24. Kiribati
25. Maldives
26. Marshall Islands
27. Mauritius
28. Micronesia, Federated States
29. Montserrat
30. Nauru
31. New Caledonia
32. Niue
33. Northern Mariana Islands
34. Palau
35. Papua New Guinea
36. Puerto Rico
37. Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
38. Samoa
39. São Tomé and Príncipe
40. Seychelles
41. Singapore
42. Solomon Islands
43. Suriname
44. Timor‐Leste
45. Tonga
46. Trinidad and Tobago
47. Tuvalu
48. US Virgin Islands
49. Vanuatu
50. References
Index
End User License Agreement

List of Tables

Chapter 01
1. Table 1.1 Ocean warming: Its impact and consequences.
2. Table 1.2 Health impacts of climate change.
3. Table 1.3 Climate change impacts in the British Virgin Islands.
Chapter 02
1. Table 2.1 The geographical regions of the 51 Small Island Developing States.
2. Table 2.2 Basic data on the 51 SIDS.
3. Table 2.3 Human Development Indices for the SIDS.
4. Table 2.4 Threats to coastal zones of small islands.
5. Table 2.5 Storm surges recorded in the US this century (National Hurricane Center, 2015b).
6. Table 2.6 Coastal populations (thousands) at different elevations above mean sea‐level (metres).
7. Table 2.7 Coastal populations (percentages) at different elevations above mean sea‐level (metres).
8. Table 2.8 Islands that have more than 10% of land area at risk at LECZ3 (low elevation coastal zone – 3 metres).
9. Table 2.9 The importance of agriculture in the SIDS.
10. Table 2.10 Climate change impacts on fisheries.
11. Table 2.11 Coastal fisheries production and projected deficits for four Pacific island states.
12. Table 2.12 Undernourishment in 20 small island states.
13. Table 2.13 The 13 SIDS where international tourism receipts account for more than 20% of GDP.
14. Table 2.14 Projected changes in temperature and precipitation for the main SIDS regions (RCP4.5 annual projected change for 2081–2100 compared with 1986–2005).
Chapter 03
1. Table 3.1 Co‐benefits of ecosystem‐based adaptation measures.
2. Table 3.2 Responses to sea‐level rise.
3. Table 3.3 Typical MPA management plan.
4. Table 3.4 MPA objectives in the context of climate change.
5. Table 3.5 The communes defining the ridge to reef zone.
6. Table 3.6 Managing the threats to the Three Bays Protected Area.
7. Table 3.7 Rice paddy production in 25 SIDS.
8. Table 3.8 Adaptation technologies for agriculture.
9. Table 3.9 Lack of effective water resources management in SIDS.
10. Table 3.10 Examples of types of crops irrigated with treated wastewater.
11. Table 3.11 Levels of wastewater treatment and systems.
12. Table 3.12 Factors affecting the choice of irrigation system and special measures required for reclaimed water re‐use.
13. Table 3.13 Adaptation and mitigation synergies.
Chapter 04
1. Table 4.1 Dependency of SIDS on imported petroleum fuels for electrical power generation (2012).
2. Table 4.2 Five SIDS generating more than a third of their electricity from renewable energy sources (percentages).
3. Table 4.3 SIDS with less than 90% access to electricity (2012).
4. Table 4.4 Global average levelized cost of electricity for wind and solar.
5. Table 4.5 Electricity tariffs in Jamaica in 2011.
6. Table 4.6 Factors that facilitated market penetration of solar hot water heaters.
Chapter 05
1. Table 5.1 Ministries managing climate change action in Haiti.
2. Table 5.2 Number of sectoral projects proposed in the NAPAs of LDC SIDS.
3. Table 5.3 Multilateral climate funds.
4. Table 5.4 Bilateral climate funds.
5. Table 5.5 Adaptation Fund support to the SIDS.
6. Table 5.6 Outline of action plan for funding adaptation.

List of Illustrations

Chapter 01
1. Figure 1.1 Global mean temperature changes based on land and ocean data since 1880.
2. Figure 1.2 Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations measured by the NOAA since before 1960.
3. Figure 1.3 Global carbon dioxide budget over the period 2006 to 2015.
Chapter 02
1. Figure 2.1 Economic vulnerability of 33 SIDS.
2. Figure 2.2 Mangroves store huge amounts of carbon.
3. Figure 2.3 Reef Check surveys of Haiti.
4. Figure 2.4 A typical former coral reef at La Gonave in Haiti overfished to the point where it has become an algal dominated reef with a few stubs of coral surviving but no fish.
5. Figure 2.5 Storm surge and storm tide.
6. Figure 2.6 The island of Malé in the Maldives.
7. Figure 2.7 Climate and non‐climate factors influencing food security.
Chapter 03
1. Figure 3.1 Marine protected areas in small island developing states.
2. Figure 3.2 The limits of the Three Bays Protected Area.
3. Figure 3.3 Charcoal production from mangroves close to the PN3B.
4. Figure 3.4 Plastic bottles and floating garbage washed up on one of the small islands on the west coast of Haiti.
5. Figure 3.5 The seven watersheds linked to the Three Bays Protected Area (PN3B) in Haiti.
6. Figure 3.6 Mapping the impact flows over the watershed areas linked to the PN3B.
7. Figure 3.7 Mapping the impact flows over the coastal areas of the Three Bays Protected Area.
8. Figure 3.8 Soil conservation practices in Haiti.
9. Figure 3.9 Aquaculture production since 1950.
10. Figure 3.10 Projected trends in fish production to 2025.
Chapter 04
1. Figure 4.1 Investments in renewable energy technologies (billion $).
2. Figure 4.2 Global renewable energy investments in 2015 (billion $).
3. Figure 4.3 Levelized costs of electricity from renewable energy technologies in 2014.
4. Figure 4.4 Schematic outline of PV‐diesel hybrid system for rural electrification.
5. Figure 4.5 Typical load profile for a rural community.
6. Figure 4.6 The inauguration of the Les Anglais photovoltaic hybrid minigrid system on 1 June 2015.
Chapter 05
1. Figure 5.1 Key climate hazards identified by 137 countries.
2. Figure 5.2 Priority sectors for adaptation.
3. Figure 5.3 Integrating top‐down and bottom‐up approaches for an ecosystem‐based action plan. MDE, Ministry of Environment; CC, climate change; MARNDR, Ministry of Agriculture.

This edition first published 2018
© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by law. Advice on how to obtain permission to reuse material from this title is available at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.

The right of Martin J. Bush to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance with law.

Registered Office(s)
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA
John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK

Editorial Office
9600 Garsington Road, Oxford, OX4 2DQ, UK

For details of our global editorial offices, customer services, and more information about Wiley products visit us at www.wiley.com.

Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats and by print‐on‐demand. Some content that appears in standard print versions of this book may not be available in other formats.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty
While the publisher and authors have used their best efforts in preparing this work, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this work and specifically disclaim all warranties, including without limitation any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives, written sales materials or promotional statements for this work. The fact that an organization, website, or product is referred to in this work as a citation and/or potential source of further information does not mean that the publisher and authors endorse the information or services the organization, website, or product may provide or recommendations it may make. This work is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a specialist where appropriate. Further, readers should be aware that websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when this work was written and when it is read. Neither the publisher nor authors shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

Library of Congress Cataloging‐in‐Publication data applied for

ISBN: 9781119132844

Cover Design: Wiley
Cover Image: © AnnWorthy/iStockphoto

Preface

This book is about climate change and how small island states need to adapt to a climate that is rapidly evolving in ways that presents a multitude of existential threats.

As a group, the Small Island Developing States, the SIDS, produce relatively small amounts of greenhouse gases. There are one or two exceptions to this rule, but for nearly all the islands the quantities of carbon dioxide generated are miniscule. Even so, most of the small island states have committed scarce financial and human resources to reducing their emissions even further as part of their commitments under the Paris Agreement. This is a mistake.

The urgent priority for small island states is to find ways to adapt to the changing climate. Reducing their greenhouse gas emissions doesn’t help anyone on the islands, and doesn’t even do anything much for the planet.

For many small island communities, the changing climate threatens not just their way of life but their very existence. As sea level rises and storms intensify, many of the SIDS will become uninhabitable as groundwater resources become contaminated by seawater intrusion, and overwashed arable land is rendered infertile by the salinized soil. At the same time, fishing is becoming less productive for many coastal communities as coral reefs are bleached out, and wamer and more acidic ocean waters play havoc with marine species’ environment.

Many adaptation strategies exist for small islands. The majority will survive because most of their land is substantially above sea‐level. But they will lose much of their coastal areas to the rising oceans, and many coastal communities will be forced to move to higher ground. States that are multi‐island countries that include many islands and atolls will have to deal with entire communities that will elect to move en masse to another, more secure, neighbouring island. Managing the social disruption and conflict that will result from these migrations will be a major challenge for many island states.

The management of water resources is crucial. As temperatures rise and periods of drought become longer and more frequent, the abundant rainfall of intense storms must be collected, stored, and managed. Agriculture must adapt to a more variable and unpredictable climate, and become more efficient in the way it uses water. Where coastal tourism is an important component of the economy, ways must be found to provide reliable electrical power and adequate potable water for tourism infrastructure.

Strengthening the resilience of coastal and marine ecosystems is a top priority. Ecosystem‐based adaptation is always a no‐regret action that should be implemented in collaboration with coastal communities.

The one area where climate change mitigation and adaptation go hand in hand is in the transition away from carbon‐based fuels to renewable energy. Transitioning electrical power production to renewables such as photovoltaic electricity and wind power brings many important co‐benefits that strengthen the resilience of island communities, and enable them to cope better with the extreme weather that is a dominant feature of the changing climate.

Small island states are in an extremely vulnerable position. Only a few of the 51 small island states are wealthy; several are still developing countries. Most of them lack the human and financial resources necessary to effectively tackle the difficulties they face. Coordination among key ministries is poor, and planning is generally weak, unfocused, and inadequate.

As this book went to press, three major hurricanes swept though the Caribbean destroying almost everything in their path. Harvey, Irma and Maria caused enormous damage to many small Caribbean islands. It is a reminder once again that for most of the small island states, focusing on reducing carbon emissions is not the priority. Ways have to be found to adapt to an increasingly unpredictable and often violent climate.

Although the outlook for small island developing states is not good, there is much that can be done if governments are better organized, and ministries cooperate and coordinate their plans. Many islands simply lack effective leadership. This book is intended to help.

Abbreviations and Symbols

AIMS	Africa, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean and South China Sea: a group of the SIDS
bbl	Barrel: 42 US gallons (about 159 litres)
CA	Conservation agriculture
CARICOM	Caribbean Community
CC	Climate change
CDC	Centers for Disease Control (USA)
CO₂	Carbon dioxide
COP	Conference of the Parties (to the UNFCCC)
CSA	Climate‐smart agriculture
DA	Designated authority
DR	Dominican Republic
EBA	Ecosystem‐based adaptation
EEZ	Exclusive economic zone
ENSO	El Nino Southern Oscillation
ESM	Earth system model
EVI	Economic Vulnerability Index
GCF	Green Climate Fund
GCM	General circulation model
GDP	Gross domestic product
GHGs	Greenhouse gases (principally CO₂, methane and nitrous oxide)
GIS	Geographical information system
Gt	Gigatonne (1 billion tonnes)
GtC	Gigatonne of carbon
GtCO₂	Gigatonne of carbon dioxide
GtCO₂e	Gigatonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (includes other greenhouse gases)
GW	Gigawatt (1 billion watts)
GWh	Gigawatt‐hour (1 billion watt‐hours)
HDR	Human development report
IAM	Idealized assessment model
IFPRI	International Food Policy Research Institute
INDC	Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
IPCC	Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPP	Independent power producer
IUCN	International Union for the Conservation of Nature
kWp	Kilowatt peak
LDC	Less developed country
LECZ	Low elevation coastal zone
LED	Light‐emitting diode
MENA	Middle East and North Africa
MPA	Marine protected area
MSL	Mean sea‐level
MtCO₂	Million tonnes of CO₂
MW	Megawatt (1 million watts)
MWh	Megawatt‐hour (1 million watt‐hours)
MWp	Megawatt peak
NASA	National Aeronautical and Space Agency (USA)
NDA	National designated authority
NHC	National Hurricane Centre (USA)
NOAA	National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA)
pH	A measure of acidity (pH of 7 is neutral, a lower value is more acidic)
PN3B	Three Bays National Park (in Haiti)
PNG	Papua New Guinea
PPA	Power purchase agreement
ppb	Parts per billion
ppm	Parts per million
PV	Photovoltaic (energy)
RCP	Representative concentration pathway
RF	Radiative forcing
SIDS	Small Island Developing State
SST	Sea surface temperature
t/yr	Tonnes per year
UNDESA	United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
UNFCCC	United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WHO	World Health Organization