Mind Over MarketsPower Trading with Market Generated Information, Updated Edition
Wiley Trading 2. Aufl.
A timely update to the book on using the Market Profile method to trade Emerging over twenty years ago, Market Profile analysis continues to realize a strong following among active traders. The approach explains the underlying dynamics and structure of markets, identifies value areas, price rejection points, and measures the strength of buyers and sellers. Unlike more conventional forms of technical analysis, Market Profile is an all-encompassing approach, and Mind Over Markets, Updated Edition provides traders with a solid understanding of it. Since the first edition of Mind Over Markets—considered the best book on applying Market Profile analysis to trading—was published over a decade ago, much has changed in the worlds of finance and investing. That's why James Dalton, a pioneer in the popularization of Market Profile, has returned with a new edition of this essential guide. Written to reflect today's dynamic market conditions, Mind Over Markets, Updated Edition clearly puts this unique method of interpreting market behavior and identifying trading/investment opportunities in perspective. Includes new chapters on Market Profile-based trading strategies, using Market Profile in connection with other market indicators, and much more Explains how the Market Profile approach has evolved over the past twenty-five years and how it is used by contemporary traders Written by a leading educator and authority on the Market Profile One of the key elements that has long separated successful traders from the rest is their intuitive understanding that time regulates all financial opportunities. The ability to record price information according to time has unleashed huge amounts of useful market information. Mind Over Markets, Updated Edition will show you how to profitably put this information to work for you.
Preface xiii Acknowledgments xvii CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1 CHAPTER 2 Novice 7 Laying the Foundation 9 The Auction 9 Organizing the Day 10 Challenging the Rules 15 The Role of the Marketplace 16 Going with the Crowd 17 Introduction to Day Timeframe Structure 19 Normal Day 19 Dynamics 19 Structural Characteristics 21 Normal Variation of a Normal Day 21 Dynamics 21 Structural Characteristics 23 Trend Day 23 Dynamics 23 Structural Characteristics 23 Double-Distribution Trend Day 25 Dynamics 25 Structural Characteristics 25 Nontrend Day 27 Dynamics 27 Structural Characteristics 27 Neutral Day 27 Dynamics 27 Structural Characteristics 28 Day Type Summary 31 CHAPTER 3 Advanced Beginner 33 Building the Framework 34 The Big Picture: Market Structure, Trading Logic, and Time 34 A Synthesis: Structure, Time, and Logic 35 Ease of Learning 36 Amount of Information 36 Recognition Speed 37 Trade Location 37 Confidence Level 37 Summary 38 Evaluating Other Timeframe Control 38 Other Timeframe Control on the Extremes 40 Tails (or Extremes) 40 Range Extension 40 Other Timeframe Control in the Body of the Profile 40 TPO 41 Initiative versus Responsive Activity 45 Trending versus Bracketed Markets 49 Key Elements—A Brief Discussion 51 Trending Markets 54 Bracketed Markets 54 The Two Big Questions 56 CHAPTER 4 Competent 59 Doing the Trade 59 Section I 60 Day Timeframe Trading 60 Day Timeframe Directional Conviction 61 Opening Call 61 The Open 62 The Open as a Gauge of Market Conviction 63 Open-Drive 63 Open-Test-Drive 65 Open-Rejection-Reverse 68 Open-Auction 69 Open-Auction in Range 70 Open-Auction out of Range 71 Summary 73 Opening’s Relationship to Previous Day—Estimating Daily Range Potential 74 Open within Value—Acceptance 75 Rejection (Breakout) 79 Open outside of Value but within Range—Acceptance 80 Rejection (Breakout) 83 Open outside of Range—Acceptance 84 Rejection 85 Summary 85 April 13,1989 86 Crude Oil 87 S&P 500 87 Gold 90 Japanese Yen 92 Soybeans 92 Treasury Bonds 92 Summary 95 Day Timeframe Auction Rotations 96 Two-Timeframe Markets 97 One-Timeframe Markets 97 Using Auction Rotations to Evaluate Other Timeframe Control 97 Structure 99 Half-Hour Auctions 100 Extremes 100 Range Extension 101 Time 101 Identifying Timeframe Transition 102 December Swiss Franc, October 12, 1987 103 Y to E: One-Timeframe Buying 104 E: Time 104 Y to F: Auction Test 104 G: Transition Confirmation 104 E to H: One-Timeframe Selling 105 H: Auction Test 105 I: Transition Confirmation 105 H-J: One-Timeframe Buying 105 Summary 105 Auction Failures 105 Excess 110 Signs of Excess 111 The Rotation Factor 112 Monitoring the POC or Fairest Price 115 9:30 a.m. Figure 4.30 116 10:00 a.m. Figure 4.31 118 10:30 a.m. Figure 4.32 119 Noon Figure 4.33 119 2:00 p.m. Figure 4.34 119 The Close 120 Day Timeframe Visualization and Pattern Recognition 122 Short-Covering Rallies 123 Long-Liquidation Breaks 127 Summary of Short Covering and Long Liquidation 128 Ledges 129 Summary 130 High- and Low-Volume Areas 131 High-Volume Areas 131 Identifying High-Volume Levels 132 High-Volume Examples 134 Low-Volume Areas 138 Low-Volume Examples 140 Summary 144 Summary—Day Timeframe Trading 145 Section II 145 Long-Term Trading 145 Long-Term Directional Conviction 146 Attempted Direction: Which Way Is the Market Trying to Go? 146 Auction Rotations 147 Range Extension 147 Long-Term Excess 150 Island Days 152 Long-Term Tails 152 Gaps 155 Summary 155 Buying/Selling Composite Days 155 Summary 157 Directional Performance: Is the Market Doing a Good Job in its Attempts to Get There? 157 Volume 158 Evaluating Changes in Volume 158 Volume as a Measure of Directional Performance 158 Value-Area Placement 159 Evaluating Directional Performance through Combined Volume and Value-Area Placement 160 Value-Area Width 169 Summary: Long-Term Activity Record 171 Long-Term Auction Rotations 183 Brackets 183 Trade Location in a Bracketed Market 188 Rule 1: Monitor Market Direction and Location within the Current Bracket 189 Rule 2: Markets Generally Test the Bracket Extreme More Than Once 190 Rule 3: Markets Fluctuate within Bracketed Regions 190 Rule 4: Monitor Activity Near the Bracket Extremes for Acceptance/Rejection 192 Transition: Bracket to Trend 192 Trends 193 Trade Location in a Trending Market 193 Monitoring Trends for Continuation 196 Transition: Trend to Bracket 197 Detailed Analysis of a Developing Market 201 Bracket Reference Points 201 Region A (Figure 4.87) 203 Region B (Figure 4.88) 205 Region C (Figure 4.89) 207 Region D (Figure 4.90) 208 Long-Term Auction Failures 210 Long-Term Short Covering and Long Liquidation 214 Applications 224 Corrective Action 225 The Function of Corrective Action 226 Summary 228 Long-Term Profiles 228 Using Long-Term Profiles 229 The Long-Term Profile in Action 229 Region A (Figures 4.98 and 4.99) 231 Region B (Figures 4.100 and 4.101) 235 Summary 238 Special Situations 238 3 to I Days 239 Neutral-Extreme Days 241 The Value-Area Rule 244 Summary 246 Spikes 247 Acceptance versus Rejection 247 Openings within the Spike 247 Openings outside the Spike 249 Bullish Openings 249 Bearish Openings 252 Spike Reference Points 252 Balance-Area Breakouts 252 Gaps 260 Day Timeframe Significance of Gaps 260 Summary 265 Markets to Stay Out Of 265 Nontrend Days 266 Nonconviction Days 266 Long-Term Nontrend Markets 267 News-Influenced Markets 269 Summary 269 News 269 Summary 274 Beyond the Competent Trader 275 CHAPTER 5 Proficient 277 Self-Understanding: Becoming a Successful Trader 279 Self-Observation 281 The Whole-Brained Trader 282 The Left Hemisphere 283 The Right Hemisphere 283 Combining the Two Hemispheres 283 Strategy 284 A Business Strategy 285 Capital 285 Location 286 Timing 286 Information 287 Know Your Competition 287 Know Yourself 288 Consistent, Daily Execution 288 Inventory 288 Risk 289 Goals 290 Record Keeping and Performance 290 Dedication 290 Applications 291 Summary 292 CHAPTER 6 The Expert Trader 295 CHAPTER 7 Experience 297 Set Aside Your Expectations 297 Mind over Markets in Profile 298 Market-Understanding and Self-Understanding 300 Perfect Practice Makes Perfect 300 Blinded by Price 300 Be Prepared 301 Perspective 302 Overnight Inventory 305 Gaps Can Be Gold 307 Gaining an Edge 308 The Fairest Price Revealed 309 Thinking Statistically 311 The Trader’s Dilemma 311 The Most Important Omission from the First Printing in 1990 312 Emotional Markets 313 A Landscape View of the Market 314 Personal Evolution 315 Hierarchy of Information 316 Timeframe Control—Who Is Dominating the Current Session? 317 Markets Are Visual 318 Destination Trades 319 The Opening 319 Trends 320 Daily Perspective 322 Cognitive Dissonance 322 Imagination 325 False Certainty 326 Anomalies 326 Market Logic 328 We Are All Day Traders 329 APPENDIX 1 Value-Area Calculation 331 Volume Value-Area Calculation 331 TPO Value-Area Calculation 332 APPENDIX II TPO versus Volume Profiles 335 Single Price Level Distortions 336 End of Day Total Volume versus Ongoing Volume throughout the Day 337 Anomalies 337 Too Focused on Volume 339 Conclusion 339 Suggested Readings 341 About the Authors 343 Index 345
JAMES F. DALTON has been a pioneer in the popularization of the Market Profile, a unique method of identifying trading/investment opportunities. He has been involved in the stock and futures markets for more than forty years. Currently a full-time trader, Jim advises two hedge funds and several trading firms. He is a discretionary trader and longtime proponent of employing the Market Profile to facilitate trading. Jim began his career in the investment industry as a broker with Merrill Lynch and Shearson Lehman. He is the coauthor of two books, the original edition of Mind Over Markets and Markets in Profile (Wiley). ERIC T. JONES is a Senior Managing Director and Head of Advisory Solutions and Product Development at TIAA-CREF. His past experience includes more than twenty-five years of developing new investment products and programs designed to help individual investors more successfully achieve their financial goals and dreams. Eric is the coauthor of two other books on the financial markets, investments, and trading: Hedging Foreign Exchange and Markets in Profile (both from Wiley). ROBERT B. DALTON is a partner at Karass Creative, a Seattle agency that bonds brands to tribes by telling stories that matter. For two decades, he has woven compelling campaigns across myriad media—from Addy-winning websites to short films and poetry—for a long list of artistic, nonprofit, and corporate clients ranging from Starbucks to TEDx. He is the coauthor of Markets in Profile (Wiley).
When the original edition of Mind Over Markets was first published, the Market Profile was relatively new. This approach offered an effective way to structure information, as well as a new way to look at markets through a time-sensitive, evolving database that records the market's continuous two-way auction process. Over twenty years later, this practical handbook—which can help you develop an understanding of market behavior and allow you to trade with the odds in your favor—is still relevant, challenging, and insightful. Since the first book, coauthors Dalton, Jones, and Dalton have continued to delve deeper into the application of auction theory to trading and investment decisions. Now, in the Updated Edition of Mind Over Markets, they once again share their knowledge with you. Written with serious traders and investors in mind, this practical guide—which is organized around the five basic steps of the learning process—provides a clear path to understanding the underlying logic behind the Market Profile and applying it in real-world situations. With it, you'll discover how to interpret market dynamics through the organization of price, time, and volume; understand its implications; and act on this information intuitively. Along the way, you'll learn the objective basics of the Market Profile as well as the nuances that need to be mastered in order to become an expert at this difficult, yet rewarding, endeavor. The Updated Edition of Mind Over Markets also contains a new concluding chapter that brings the "book learning" in the preceding chapters into the light of real experience, where real money is won and lost in the market's endless fluctuation. The examples employed provide a clear context for the content—because the synthesis of the five stages of learning can only happen in practice. A new appendix is also included, which compares TPO with Volume Profiles. The lessons in this book go beyond technical systems—which the Market Profile is not—into areas of self-understanding. While much of the information found here may differ from the accepted models of market analysis, embracing it will allow you to transform insights into instincts and progress on the path to becoming a successful trader.
"Too often, developing traders focus on trying to predict markets before they have fully understood them. Mind Over Markets offers an unparalleled framework for understanding market movement and the processes that drive trends and reversals. Kudos to Jim Dalton for updating this classic text!" —Brett N. Steenbarger, PhD, Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, SUNY Upstate Medical University Emerging over twenty-five years ago, Market Profile analysis continues to realize a strong following. The approach explains the underlying dynamics and structure of markets, identifies value areas, price rejection points, and measures the strength of buyers and sellers. Unlike more conventional forms of technical analysis, the Market Profile is an all-encompassing approach, and the Updated Edition of Mind Over Markets provides a solid understanding of it. Since the original edition of this book was published, coauthors Dalton, Jones, and Dalton have continued to delve deeper into the application of auction theory to trading and investment decisions. Now they've returned to once again share their knowledge with you. While containing the valuable insights and examples that made the first edition an essential resource on this topic, the Updated Edition contains a new concluding chapter that brings the "book learning" of the preceding chapters into the real world, where real money is won and lost during the market's endless fluctuation. The examples employed provide a clear context for the content—because the synthesis of the five stages of learning can only happen in practice. A new appendix is also included, which compares TPO with Volume Profiles.
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