Details

Handbook of Decision Analysis


Handbook of Decision Analysis


Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Band 4 1. Aufl.

von: Gregory S. Parnell, Terry Bresnick, Steven N. Tani, Eric R. Johnson

150,99 €

Verlag: Wiley
Format: PDF
Veröffentl.: 30.01.2013
ISBN/EAN: 9781118515839
Sprache: englisch
Anzahl Seiten: 432

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Beschreibungen

<p><b>A ONE-OF-A-KIND GUIDE TO THE BEST PRACTICES IN DECISION ANALYSIS</b></p> <p>Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the decision analysis literature and features both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling.</p> <p>Readers will learn how to identify and overcome the numerous challenges of decision making, choose the appropriate decision process, lead and manage teams, and create value for their organization. Performing modeling analysis, assessing risk, and implementing decisions are also addressed throughout. Additional features include:</p> <ul> <li>Key insights gleaned from decision analysis applications and behavioral decision analysis research</li> <li>Integrated coverage of the techniques of single- and multiple-objective decision analysis</li> <li>Multiple qualitative and quantitative techniques presented for each key decision analysis task</li> <li>Three substantive real-world case studies illustrating diverse strategies for dealing with the challenges of decision making</li> <li>Extensive references for mathematical proofs and advanced topics</li> </ul> <p><i>The Handbook of Decision Analysis </i>is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in various fields including business, operations research, engineering, and science. The book also serves as a supplement for courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.</p>
<p>List of Figures ix</p> <p>List of Tables xiii</p> <p>Foreword xv</p> <p>Preface xxi</p> <p>Acknowledgments xxv</p> <p>About the Authors xxvii</p> <p>Acronyms xxxi</p> <p>1 Introduction to Decision Analysis 1<br /><i>Gregory S. Parnell and Terry A. Bresnick</i></p> <p>2 Decision-Making Challenges 22<br /><i>Terry A. Bresnick and Gregory S. Parnell</i></p> <p>3 Foundations of Decision Analysis 46<br /><i>Gregory S. Parnell and Steven N. Tani</i></p> <p>4 Decision Analysis Soft Skills 68<br /><i>Terry A. Bresnick and Gregory S. Parnell</i></p> <p>5 Use the Appropriate Decision Process 92<br /><i>Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. Parnell</i></p> <p>6 Frame the Decision Opportunity 110<br /><i>Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. Parnell</i></p> <p>7 Craft the Decision Objectives and Value Measures 127<br /><i>Gregory S. Parnell, Terry A. Bresnick, and Eric R. Johnson</i></p> <p>8 Design Creative Alternatives 149<br /><i>Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. Parnell</i></p> <p>9 Perform Deterministic Analysis and Develop Insights 166<br />Eric R. Johnson, Gregory S. Parnell, and Steven N. Tani</p> <p>10 Quantify Uncertainty 227<br /><i>Eric R. Johnson and Steven N. Tani</i></p> <p>11 Perform Probabilistic Analysis and Identify Insights 248<br /><i>Eric R. Johnson and Steven N. Tani</i></p> <p>12 Portfolio Resource Allocation 291<br /><i>Terry A. Bresnick, Eric R. Johnson, and Gregory S. Parnell</i></p> <p>13 Communicating with Decision Makers and Stakeholders 320<br /><i>Gregory S. Parnell and Terry A. Bresnick</i></p> <p>14 Enable Decision Implementation 340<br /><i>Terry A. Bresnick and Gregory S. Parnell</i></p> <p>15 Summary of Major Themes 351<br /><i>Gregory S. Parnell</i></p> <p>Appendix A: Probability Theory 362<br /><i>Steven N. Tani</i></p> <p>Appendix B: Influence Diagrams 374<br />Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. Parnell</p> <p>Appendix C: Decision Conferencing 381<br /><i>Terry A. Bresnick<br /><br /></i>Index 392</p>
<p><b>GREGORY S. PARNELL, PhD,</b> is Professor of Systems Engine-ering at the United States Military Academy at West Point and Executive Principal Analyst with Innovative Decisions, Inc.</p> <p><b>TERRY A. BRESNICK, MBA,</b> is Cofounder of Innovative Decisions, Inc. and President of Innovative Decision Analysis, Inc.</p> <p><b>STEVEN N. TANI, PhD,</b> is Partner and Fellow of Strategic Decisions Group.</p> <p><b>ERIC R. JOHNSON, PhD,</b> is Associate Director at Bristol-Myers Squibb.</p>
<p><b>A one-of-a-kind guide to the best practices in decision analysis</b></p> <p>Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the decision analysis literature and features both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling.</p> <p>Readers will learn how to identify and overcome the numerous challenges of decision making, choose the appropriate decision process, lead and manage teams, and create value for their organization. Performing modeling analysis, assessing risk, and implementing decisions are also addressed throughout. Additional features include:</p> <ul> <li>Key insights gleaned from decision analysis applications and behavioral decision analysis research</li> <li>Integrated coverage of the techniques of single- and multiple-objective decision analysis</li> <li>Multiple qualitative and quantitative techniques presented for each key decision analysis task</li> <li>Three substantive real-world case studies illustrating diverse strategies for dealing with the challenges of decision making</li> <li>Extensive references for mathematical proofs and advanced topics</li> </ul> <p>The <i>Handbook of Decision Analysis</i> is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in various fields including business, operations research, engineering, and science. The book also serves as a supplement for courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.</p>

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