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Economic Indicators For Dummies

1. Aufl.

von: Michael Griffis
19,99 €
Verlag:	Wiley
Format:	PDF
Veröffentl.:	20.09.2011
ISBN/EAN:	9781118163887
Sprache:	englisch
Anzahl Seiten:	408

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Titelbeschreibung

Everything you need to easily get a handle on economic indicators In today's volatile, often troubling economic landscape, there are myriad statistics and reports that paint an economic picture that can sometimes resemble a work by Jackson Pollock. These complex and often-conflicting reports could vex even the savviest investor. Economic Indicators For Dummies explains how to interpret and use key global economic indicators to make solid investments, aid in business planning, and help develop informed decisions. In plain English, it breaks down the complex language and statistics to help you make sense of this critical information. You'll discover how to interpret economic data within the context of other sometimes-conflicting reports and statistics, and use the information to make profitable decisions. You'll understand the meaning of such data as employment indices and housing and construction stats and how they affect stocks, bonds, commodities and international markets . . . and how you can use these statistics to make investment decisions as well as plan strategic goals for business growth. Economic Indicators For Dummies breaks down dozens of statistics and patterns to give you a better understanding of how various sources of data and information can be used. <ul> <li>Breaks down jargon and statistical concepts</li> <li>Covers how to use publicly available economic indicators to better position your portfolio, improve returns, and make sensible, long-range business plans</li> <li>Discusses the reliability and timeliness of the collected data, while helping investors prioritize the flow of economic information to avoid information overload</li> </ul> Whether you're an investor, economics student, or business professional involved in making key strategic decisions for your company, Economic Indicators For Dummies has you covered.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Introduction 1 About This Book 1 Conventions Used in This Book 2 Foolish Assumptions 3 What Not to Read 4 How the Book Is Organized 4 Part I: Figuring Out the Economy 4 Part II: Making Money, Spending Money: Employment and Consumer Indicators 4 Part III: The Essence of Business: Product and Service Indicators 5 Part IV: Inflation, Productivity, Interest Rates, and Commodities: Oh My! 5 Part V: International Intrigue: Indicators beyond the United States 5 Part VI: The Part of Tens 6 Icons Used in This Book 6 Where to Go from Here 6 Part I: Figuring Out the Economy 7 Chapter 1: Introducing Economic Indicators 9 Understanding What Economic Indicators Are 10 Reading the economy through economic indicators 10 Cycling through economic ups and downs 11 Identifying What Indicators Indicate 12 Tracking consumer spending 12 Looking at the big picture 13 Eyeing manufacturing 14 Counting up the number of bought, sold, and newly built homes 15 Monitoring inflation 15 Measuring productivity 16 Looking at loans and commodity purchases 16 Following worldwide economies 17 Knowing How to Start Following Economic Indicators 18 Analyzing the data 19 Tracking economic indicator release dates 19 Chapter 2: Explaining Economic Jargon 21 Identifying Types of Economic Indicators 21 Summarizing economic results 22 Surveying for information 22 Indexing the economy 24 Understanding How Economists Analyze the Data 27 Measuring growth 27 Annualizing reported data 29 Smoothing data with moving averages 32 Massaging Economic Data to Make the Results More Useful 35 Adjusting for inflation 35 Adjusting for seasonal fluctuations 37 Considering the Timeliness of Economic Indicators 37 Leading indicators make forecasts 38 Coincident indicators are no coincidence 38 Lagging indicators can’t foretell the future 39 Looking into the Future with Consensus Forecasts 39 Finding consensus forecasts 40 Analyzing the accuracy of the consensus 40 Amending and Modifying Data with Revision Reports 41 Revising previous reports 41 Changing benchmarks 42 Cha-Ching: Money, Interest Rates, and the Economy 43 Understanding the Fed’s monetary measures 43 Setting short- and long-term interest rates 44 Chapter 3: Understanding the Big Picture: The Economy and Its Footprints 45 Taking a Closer Look at the Business Cycle 46 Identifying the phases of the cycle 46 Growing into expansion 49 Slowing into recession 49 Reviewing the Key Financial Markets 50 Investing in stocks 50 Holding bonds 53 Trading commodities 55 Tracking currencies 56 Figuring Out What’s What in Economic Reports 57 Finding what’s important in each report 58 Seeing how reports are assembled 59 Showing Economic Fashions without the Runway 59 Understanding market sensitivity 60 Determining an indicator’s accuracy and timeliness 61 Seeing who’s interested in what 61 Part II: Making Money, Spending Money: Employment and Consumer Indicators 65 Chapter 4: Counting Jobs and Unemployment 67 Tracking the BLS Employment Situation Report 68 Counting workers and the unemployed 68 Highlighting key parts of the jobs report 73 Deciphering employment numbers 75 Predicting market reactions due to employment changes 77 Looking at Unemployment Insurance Claims 79 Keeping track of unemployment insurance claims 80 Smoothing jobless claim fluctuations 81 Analyzing the claims numbers 82 Determining how the market may react to increased claims 82 Eyeing the ADP National Employment Report ® 84 Reviewing key parts of ADP’s jobs report 85 Comparing the ADP and BLS reports 86 Figuring out how the market will react to the ADP report 87 Advertising for Jobs: The Conference Board Help Wanted Online Index 88 Measuring the availability of jobs online 88 Predicting how the market will react 89 Collecting the BLS Mass Layoff Statistics Report 90 Surfing Monster Employment Indexes 91 Chapter 5: Survey Says: Considering Consumer Sentiment, Confidence, and Comfort 93 Trying to Figure Out Consumers 94 Surveying UM’s Consumer Sentiment Index 95 Eyeing the importance of this index 95 Considering the consumer’s expectations 96 Correlating consumer sentiment and spending: What the data mean 97 Looking for unexpected changes 99 Knowing how the markets will react 100 Understanding the Consumer Confidence Index 100 Seeing how people feel about the economy 101 Looking for happy consumers 103 Comparing and contrasting surveys 103 Finding surprises in the confidence survey 106 Adjusting your portfolio strategy 107 Reviewing the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 108 Justifying another consumer survey: What makes this one unique 109 Correlating comfort, recovery, and recession 109 Modifying your portfolio strategy 112 Chapter 6: Spreading the Wealth: Consumer Spending and the Economy 113 Making and Spending: The BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays Report 113 Tracking personal wages, savings, and purchases 115 Highlighting consumers’ economic impact: The wealth effect 122 Identifying the relationship between spending, income, and the economy 122 Reacting to surprising results 123 Surveying Retail Sales: The Census Bureau’s Retail Trade Report 124 Highlighting product purchases 125 Monitoring spending trends 126 Investing based on the survey results 127 How Much Consumers Borrow: The Consumer Credit Outstanding Report 128 Tracking Online Sales: The Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales Report 130 Part III: The Essence of Business: Product and Service Indicators 133 Chapter 7: GDP: The Whole Enchilada 135 Grasping What the GDP Report Is 135 Breaking down the GDP schedule 136 Finding the economy’s growth rate 137 Counting products and services in the GDP 140 Highlighting the GDP’s Importance 142 Declaring recessions and recoveries 143 Surveying how businesses use the GDP 144 Understanding how the government uses the GDP 144 Eyeing how investors use the GDP 145 Knowing How the GDP Is Calculated 147 Measuring personal consumption 149 Tracking private investments 150 Counting government consumption 152 Monitoring imports and exports 152 Purchasing and selling domestic products 153 Seeing How GDP Is Adjusted for Inflation 154 Chaining dollars to inflation 155 Comparing GDP price indexes over time 156 Chapter 8: Following the Fed 161 Understanding the Fed’s Role 161 Outlining the Fed’s basic structure 162 Understanding central banking 163 Digging into monetary policy 164 Reading the Fed’s FOMC Statement 166 Eyeing why this report is important 167 Forecasting the future with the FOMC 167 Reacting to the FOMC Statement 168 Boring into the Beige Book 170 Monitoring Manufacturing with the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Report 171 Seeing what the report measures 172 Correlating output, capacity, and growth 174 Repositioning your portfolio 176 Reviewing Regional Fed Reports 179 Surveying business outlook 180 Indexing national activity 181 Chapter 9: Profiling Manufacturing: New Orders and Shipments 185 Filling Orders for Durable Goods: The Advance Report on Durable Goods 185 Knowing where the data come from 186 Tracking new factory orders: Why these stats are important 187 Figuring out what the data mean 188 Correlating manufacturing and future growth 191 Manufacturing your portfolio response 193 Monitoring Factory Orders and Sales: The Factory Orders Report 195 Comparing the full and advance versions 196 Investing in the full report 197 Counting Business Inventories: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report 198 Chapter 10: Grappling with Economic Indexes 201 Measuring ISM’s Manufacturing Survey 201 Understanding how the ISM surveys purchasing agents 202 Checking the health of manufacturers 203 Surveying purchasing managers’ insights for the PMI 206 Monitoring market movement 206 Gauging Non-Manufacturing Companies 208 Looking At the Leading Economic Index 210 Chapter 11: Spending on Housing and Residential Construction 213 Growing the Economy One House at a Time 214 Realizing the relationship between housing and GDP 214 Understanding U.S housing demand 216 Counting One Start at a Time: The New Residential Construction Report 217 Eyeing the data: Where the stats come from 217 Monitoring building permits and other housing stats 219 Correlating housing and economic activity 221 Remodeling your investment portfolio 222 Reporting New-Home Sales: The New Residential Sales Report 223 Comparing new starts with new sales: Is it possible? 224 Recognizing the connection between new-home sales and the economic cycle 226 Forecasting investment market reactions 226 Reporting Existing-Home Sales 227 Tracking housing prices 229 Understanding how existing-home sales affect investment markets 230 Monitoring Pending Home Sales 231 Surveying Mortgages 233 Eyeing what data you get at no cost 234 Tracking delinquent mortgages 234 Identifying potential market changes 235 Pricing the S&P/Case-Shiller Indices 236 Part IV: Inflation, Productivity, Interest Rates, and Commodities: Oh My! 239 Chapter 12: Determining Inflation’s Economic Impact 241 Gauging Inflation from the Consumer’s View: The Consumer Price Index 242 Eyeing the parts of the CPI 242 In a basket: How CPI is measured 244 Understanding why inflation matters 247 Seeing the different reactions to inflation and the CPI 248 Inflating investment returns 251 Using Manufacturing Costs to Measure Inflation: The Producer Price Index 252 Comparing the PPI and CPI 253 Inflating the price of business supplies 254 Correlating the PPI and economic growth 255 Showing PPI’s investment market impact 256 Tracking Inflation through Labor Costs: The Employment Cost Index 258 Monitoring and tracking labor costs 258 Seeing how the Fed uses the ECI 259 Employing labor costs in investment analysis 260 Chapter 13: Taking a Closer Look at Productivity and Economic Growth 261 Measuring Productivity and Costs: The Labor Productivity and Costs Report 262 Defining productivity 263 Correlating productivity to job growth and costs 266 Producing investment returns 267 Watching Employee Compensation Costs: The ECEC Report 268 Monitoring labor costs 270 Using labor costs to improve investments 270 Calculating What Workers Really Make: The Real Earnings Report 272 Chapter 14: Eyeing Business and Municipal Borrowing in the Bond Market 273 Simplifying the Fixed-Income Market 274 Showing Some Interest in Interest 275 Grasping how interest rates are set 275 Determining risk 276 Finding Current Interest Rates: The Selected Interest Rates Report 277 Taming the TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) Spread 281 Following the Treasury Yield Curve 282 Interpreting the yield curve 282 Identifying how the curve can look and what the shapes mean 283 Seeing the Bond Market’s Impact on the Rest of the Market 286 Yielding interesting returns 286 Investing in yield 286 Forecasting the currency’s value 287 Chapter 15: Harvesting Commodity Data 289 Understanding Commodities: Focusing on Supply and Demand 290 Paying cash upfront: Cash markets 290 Specifying the purchase terms before you buy: Forward contracts 291 Bidding for a price: Futures markets 292 Delving into Commodities Reports 293 Digging for gold and other precious metals 293 Drilling into the energy markets 295 Growing the agricultural markets 299 Mining industrial metals 301 Pricing Commodities 302 Finding spot prices 302 Finding futures prices 303 Tracking Commodity Indexes 304 Following Standard & Poor’s GSCI 304 Digging into the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index 306 Reading The Economist’s commodity index 307 Surveying the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Indexes 308 Part V: International Intrigue: Indicators beyond the United States 309 Chapter 16: Trading with the United States 311 Tracking Trade: U.S International Trade in Goods and Service Report 312 Reporting U.S exports and imports 313 Finding more trade data in the supplemental tables and online 321 Correlating trade and economic growth 321 Trading information for investment returns 322 Figuring Out the Balance of Trade 323 Following the TIC (Treasury International Capital) System 323 Chapter 17: Following Economies Worldwide 325 Investing in Overseas Markets 325 Using Reliable Sources to Find Info on International Indicators 328 Surveying purchasing managers globally 329 Surveying purchasing managers in Europe 329 Tracking the German Economy 330 Measuring German productivity 331 Surveying German businesses 334 Tracking the Japanese Economy 336 Surveying Japanese businesses 336 Measuring Japan’s productivity 340 Tracking China’s Economy 341 Chapter 18: Monitoring Emerging Economies 345 Following Emerging Markets 345 Seeing the world through Google’s Public Data Explorer 346 Using other sources to track emerging markets 347 Monitoring India’s Economy 347 Following India’s economic progress 348 Anticipating India’s future growth 349 Following Brazil’s Economic Future 350 Summarizing Brazil’s economy 350 Understanding Brazil’s inflation issue 352 Part VI: The Part of Tens 353 Chapter 19: Ten Ways to Track the U.S. Economy 355 Monitoring Jobs and Employment Data 356 Accounting for Consumer Spending 357 Checking Up on Businesses 357 Showing an Interest in Interest Rates 358 Building on Housing and Construction 358 Following Inflation 359 Surveying Consumers 360 Following the GDP 360 Chapter 20: Ten (Or So) Money-Making Tips You Can Use with Economic Indicators 361 Finding the Big Picture: Distinguishing between Bull and Bear Markets 361 Tracking Sector Rotation 363 Following the Herd 364 Taking Three Steps, Then a Stumble 364 Balancing Your Portfolio 364 Investing Strategically 365 Taking Your Investments Abroad 365 Avoiding Big Investment Mistakes 366 Avoiding Analysis Paralysis 366 Glossary 367 Index 375

Autorenportrait

Michael Griffis, MBA, has been an active trader for more than two decades. He has written about stock trading for online audiences, and today writes about investing and marketing for clients in the banking and brokerage industries.

Back cover copy

Your plain-English guide to making sense of economic indicators In today’s economic landscape, countless statistics and reports paint a picture that can resemble a work by Jackson Pollock. These complex and often-conflicting reports could vex even the savviest investor. Economic Indicators For Dummies shows you how to interpret this critical information to make solid investments, aid in business planning, and help develop informed decisions. <ul><li>Economic Indicators 101 — get a refresher on the terminology you’ll encounter in this book as well as plain-English explanations of common economic jargon </li> <li>Spread the wealth — understand how consumer spending is the driving force behind an economy, where consumer dollars go, and who has money to spend</li> <li>Large and in charge — discover how tracking the largest economic sectors — healthcare, automobile manufacturing, and housing — is an excellent way to determine the economy’s current health</li> <li>Fight inflation — find out how to monitor the economy for signs of inflation, rising employee compensation costs, and falling productivity</li> <li>Look globally — decipher important international indicators if you’re considering investing in overseas markets</li></ul> Open the book and find: <ul><li>The analytical concepts you need to understand </li> <li>A quick review of stocks, bonds, and other investment markets</li> <li>How unemployment makes an impact on investment markets</li> <li>What you need to know about the GDP Report </li> <li>Ways you can make sense of the Federal Reserve’s economic surveys and forecasts</li> <li>Worldwide economic indicators to watch</li> <li>A glossary that defines key terms </li></ul>