Build a bulletproof portfolio with advice from a top market expert Doug Kass on the Market: A Life on TheStreet™ provides investment advice and guidance from one of the most renowned traders in the world. Author Doug Kass distills his years of experience as a hedge fund manager and infamous short seller to share the theory, technique, and intuition that built his reputation and his portfolio. Anecdotes about interactions with Wall Street's most famous names, including Buffett, Cramer, and Cooperman, highlight tricks of the trade, essential value investor insight, and the secrets to being a smart short. Doug Kass's reputation as a savvy investor is well-earned and widely recognized. His work on Wall Street gained him heavyweight status, and the friendship, the respect, and the ear of some of the biggest names in finance. As a CNBC regular and 2013 Buffet Bear, Kass is widely known as a trusted source of wisdom and profitable insight. In Doug Kass on the Market, readers learn valuable lessons that that will help them make smarter investment decisions. Kass lists the most important things to know when evaluating a possible long or short investment, and explains the things you're not doing to optimize your portfolio. Topics include: Going against the grain Data versus instinct Valuation, bubbles, and momentum Interest rates, inflation, and the Fed The book also describes how to short a stock properly without losing out and discusses the C-suite conversations that fund managers would never tell a lay shareholder. Kass's record proves the value of his acumen, and this book contains a comprehensive account of his talent and techniques. All investors deserve a chance at a more robust portfolio, and Doug Kass on the Market provides the information and guidance that can make that happen.
Foreword xiii James J. Cramer Preface xvii Where It Began 1 Introduction 1 The Contrarian 2 A Longtime Bear Turns Bull 5 What a Long, Strange Trip It’s Been 9 Short-Selling 13 Introduction 13 The Case for Short-Selling 14 Short-Sellers under Fire 18 How to Short 21 Lehman Can’t Blame Shorts 23 Stop Pointing Fingers at Short-Sellers 25 Blame Game Is Dishonest 27 11 Ways to Fix the Short Ban 29 Leave the Short-Sellers Alone 32 In Defense of Short-Selling 39 Lessons Learned 43 Introduction 43 Sniffing Out Bad Stocks 44 Laugh at Your Own Expense 45 When the Bond Market Talks, Listen 46 Poker Is Flush with Insight for Traders 48 My Tenets of Investing 50 12 Investment Principles for the Abyss 54 My Recession Checklist 55 Kill the Quants, Punish the ProBears 57 Chase Value, Not Price 60 Six Ways to Right Your Wrongs 62 Four Stages of Market Turning Points 63 Moving On 65 Adapting to Mr. Market 67 In Bernanke We Trust? 68 America’s Pastime Applies to Markets 72 Let the Trading Day Commence 76 A Delicate Balance 85 The Lion’s Share 86 What to Do When You’re Wrong 91 Beware the Stock Market Trading Jones 92 Addressing the Fiscal Cliff 97 One Shining Moment 102 Time Frames and Exposures 105 Such a Long Time to Be Gone and a Short Time to Be Here 108 10 Laws of Stock Market Bubbles 112 My Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator 116 The Great Decession: Subprime and Credit/Debt Crisis 119 Introduction 119 Trouble Looms for the Homebuilders 120 Stretched Consumer Nears Tipping Point 123 When the Walls Come Tumbling Down 127 When the Walls Come Tumbling Down (Part Deux) 129 Housing Headed to the Woodshed 132 Housing’s Softness Has Long Reach 134 Subpar Subprime a Growing Problem 136 Ratings Are Subprime’s Dirty Secret 138 Subprime Fungus Will Spread 139 Subprime’s Siren Call 141 Four to Blame for the Subprime Mess 147 Fed Is No Savior in Subprime Slide 151 The Simple Math of Subprime’s Slide 152 Housing Red Ink Could Spell Recession 155 Hedge Funds’ Dirty Little Debt Secret 157 Loaded Up on Leverage 159 Don’t Underestimate How Bad Things Are 162 No Quick and Easy Fix for This Market 164 Brokers’ Profits Riskier 167 Shaking Off the Credit Nightmare 169 Blinded by the Derivatives Boom 170 A Market on the Brink 176 Two Solutions to What Ails the Market 179 Ready for the Bear Stearns Challenge? 183 Investors Have Lost Their Innocence 189 Wall Street Has Sold Out America 191 Welcome to Dystopia 193 Harder than the Average Bear 198 Recovery 201 Introduction 201 The Parable of the Mustard Seed 202 On the Road to Recovery 204 Fear and Loathing on Wall Street 207 Bottoms Up, Mr. Market 215 Bottom Call (Part Deux) 217 Printing an Important Market Bottom 219 It Ain’t Heavy, It’s a Bottom 220 The Little Market that Could 223 Against the Grain 227 Introduction 227 Experts Agree, Recession Is Over 228 Market Has Likely Topped 229 Bearish Arguments Are Roaring 232 Top 20 Signs How Bad the Economy Is 238 More Nuance Is in Store 239 We Are the World 243 The Decade of the Temporary Worker 246 The Scale Tips to the Bullish Side 249 The Lost Decade Has Passed Us 253 Equities Edge toward a Top 255 More on Screwflation 259 A Contagion of Black Swans 261 Apocalypse Soon 263 10 Reasons to Buy American 269 The Case for Shorting U.S. Bonds 271 Residential Real Estate Is Ready to Recover 274 The Bear Case for Apple 276 A House Divided against Itself 280 Beware the Interest Rate Cliff 284 Housing Faces a Credit Event 286 QE’s Growing Impotence 290 Flawed Case for a Bull Market 292 Everybody in the Pool 296 Expect the Unexpected in 2014 298 Climbing a Wall of Complacency 301 Turn, Turn, Turn 305 Wall Street Personalities 309 Introduction 309 A Soros Story 310 The Bearded Prophet of the Apocalypse 312 On Being Jim Cramer 315 Defending Cramer 316 Defending Cramer (Part Deux) 319 Leon Cooperman and James Brown: The Godfathers of Hard Work 322 Ben Stein Whistles Past Mortgage Mess 324 Curb Your Enthusiasm, Ben Stein 326 Ben Stein Blames You 328 Eat My Shorts, Ben Stein 335 My Q&A with Nouriel Roubini 337 The Orchid Indicator 339 The Most Important Book 342 The Gospel According to Barton Biggs 347 Walt’s Wit 350 Alan Abelson and Me 354 An Open Letter to Sir Larry Kudlow 358 More Remarkable Tales of Boca Biff 360 Buffett Watch 373 Introduction 373 11 Reasons to Short Berkshire 374 Buffett Veers Off His Investment Path 379 Warren Buffett Has Lost His Groove 381 Buffett Brought Down to Earth 383 Is This the End of Warren Buffett? 384 One of the Worst Beatings Ever 386 Buy American? I’m Damned! 390 Burlington Bet Could Derail Berkshire 395 Omaha, Here I Come! 396 My Pilgrimage to Warren Buffett’s Omaha 398 Warren and Me 401 Little-Known Facts about Warren Buffett 404 Conversing with the Oracle 406 My Berkshire Q&A Recap 413 The Rabbi and the Oracle 421 Lessons Never Learned 424 Surprises 427 Introduction 427 25 Surprises for 2003 430 Surprises in Store for 2004 431 Some Surprises in Store for 2005 434 Surprises for 2006 438 25 Surprises for 2007 444 20 Surprises for 2008 450 20 Surprises for 2009 454 20 Surprises for 2010 461 15 Surprises for 2011 466 15 Surprises for 2012 479 Five More Surprises for 2012 488 15 Surprises for 2013 489 15 Surprises for 2014 505 Epilogue 517
DOUG KASS is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. From 1994 to 1996, he was a senior portfolio manager at Omega Advisors, a $10 billion investment partnership. Formerly, he was executive senior vice president and director of institutional equities of First Albany Corporation and JW Charles/CSG. He was a General Partner of Glickenhaus & Co., and held various positions with Putnam Management and Kidder, Peabody. Doug is the coauthor of Citibank: The Ralph Nader Report with Nader and the Center for the Study of Responsive Law, and since 2003 he has been a guest host on CNBC's Squawk Box. He has an MBA from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Doug Kass on the Market: A Life on TheStreet? is filled with invaluable investment advice and guidance from one of the most renowned traders in the world. Doug Kass distills his years of experience as a hedge fund manager and infamous short seller to share the theory, technique, and intuition that built his sterling reputation and his giant-sized portfolio. To top it off, Kass reveals captivating, behind-the-scenes anecdotes about his interactions with Wall Street luminaries, including Warren Buffett, Jim Cramer, and Lee Cooperman. Doug Kass has a contrarian approach to investing that provides differentiated and hard-hitting analysis that is captured in his thoroughly enjoyable writing style. As a CNBC regular and 2013 Buffett Bear, Kass is widely known as a trusted source of profitable knowledge. Designed to help traders and investors make smarter investment decisions, Doug Kass on the Market offers a wealth of valuable lessons, lists the most important things to know when evaluating a possible long or short investment, and explains the things you're not doing to optimize your portfolio. There are no sacred cows in Doug Kass's investment world, and he tackles even the most taboo of topics including: What to Do When You're Wrong; Shaking Off the Credit Nightmare; Hedge Funds' Dirty Little Debt Secret; and Wall Street Has Sold Out America. He offers solid advice for building your portfolio and shows how to short a stock without losing out. Kass also discusses the C-suite conversations that fund managers would never tell a lay shareholder. With Doug Kass on the Market you will discover the tricks of the trade, tap into Kass's essential value investor insights, and uncover the secrets to being a savvy short investor.
Praise for DOUG KASS ON THE MARKET "Dougie Kass tells it like it is as he navigates the capital markets during one of the most volatile periods in history. The ultimate contrarian, Dougie made the call heard 'round the investment world when he predicted 'A Generation Market Bottom' on The Kudlow Report during the first week of March in 2009—amazingly within 24 hours of the U.S. stock market's actual low." —Lawrence Kudlow, CNBC senior contributor and radio host of The Larry Kudlow Show "A must-read for any serious stock market investor. Doug gives the reader invaluable insights garnered over a 40-plus-year investment career. You will be a better investor after learning from Doug's experiences." —Leon G. Cooperman, Founder and CEO, Omega Advisors, Inc. "Doug Kass demonstrates profound awareness of financial history, cycles and their extremes, and the need for a value-conscious, unemotional, contrarian approach. These are essential elements in investment success. By reflecting them, Doug helps his readers negotiate the extremes of euphoria and depression—and overvaluation and undervaluation—that victimize so many investors." —Howard Marks, Chairman, Oaktree Capital Management "From longs to shorts to Buffett to Ben Stein and, of course, poker, Doug Kass shares decades of common-sense wisdom on the markets, investing, and life. It is a real treat to read this selection of writings from one of the most levelheaded practitioners of a generation." —David Einhorn, Founder and President, Greenlight Capital "Doug Kass has been a serious student of the financial markets and popular culture for decades. He has combined this passion with his exceptional intelligence and common sense to write daily commentaries which I read carefully. Some of his best work is in this book. Over the years he has helped me become a better investor." —Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners LP "Doug provides both a theoretical and, more importantly, a practical approach to the unfolding dynamics of the U.S. capital market—with emphasis on understanding equities and investigating behavior. He provides a good motion picture of what has occurred in the world in the last two decades." —Mario J. Gabelli, Founder and Chairman of GAMCO Investors
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