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<p>About the Authors xv</p> <p>Acknowledgments xvii</p> <p>Foreword xix</p> <p><b>Introduction 1</b></p> <p>The Threat of Being Amazoned and Uberized 2</p> <p>Elephants Dancing to a Faster Tempo 4</p> <p>Where is My Crystal Ball? 4</p> <p>Trillion- Dollar Platforms 6</p> <p>Changing Wheels While the Car is Running 7</p> <p>Dealing with Chaos 8</p> <p>Uncertainty Must Be Managed 8</p> <p>The Premise Behind SPX 9</p> <p>How This Book is Organized 11</p> <p><b>Section One 15</b></p> <p><b>Chapter 1 The New Context for Our Future 17</b></p> <p>The Future is Not Your Brain’s Priority 18</p> <p>Exponentials Make Fools of Humans 19</p> <p>The Phases of Exponential Progression 19</p> <p>The Exponential Explosion 22</p> <p>Moore’s Law: The Observation that Changed the World 24</p> <p><b>Chapter 2 Exponential Platforms: Convergences and Megatrends 27</b></p> <p>Megatrends 29</p> <p>Hyper Global Connectivity 29</p> <p>A Longer and Healthier Life 30</p> <p>Augmented and Virtual Worlds 31</p> <p>Abundance 32</p> <p>Upgraded Transportation 33</p> <p>Instant Personalization 34</p> <p>Digitization of Work 34</p> <p>Automated Shopping 35</p> <p>Radical Interfaces 36</p> <p>Sustainable Environment 36</p> <p>Exponential Platforms 37</p> <p>Artificial Intelligence 37</p> <p>Networks and Blockchain 41</p> <p>Biotechnology 43</p> <p>Quantum Computing 44</p> <p>Internet of Things 44</p> <p>3D Printing 45</p> <p>Robotics 46</p> <p>Material Science 47</p> <p><b>Chapter 3 Animals of the Exponential Kingdom 49</b></p> <p>Flash Boiled Frogs 49</p> <p>Nokia 50</p> <p>Blockbuster 51</p> <p>Disruptive</p> <p>Unicorns 52</p> <p>Airbnb 52</p> <p>ByteDance 53</p> <p>Fast and Furious Gazelles 55</p> <p>Uber 55</p> <p>Netflix 56</p> <p>Dancing Elephants 58</p> <p>IBM 59</p> <p>Microsoft 60</p> <p>Dominating Gorillas 61</p> <p>Google 61</p> <p>Amazon 62</p> <p><b>Section Two 65</b></p> <p><b>Chapter 4 Introducing SPX: Strategic Planning for the Exponential Era 67</b></p> <p>Convergence Research and Strategic Planning 68</p> <p>The Manifesto that Changed How Software is Built 69</p> <p>Iterative Experiments in a Feedback Loop 71</p> <p>Thinking Like a Designer 72</p> <p>Getting Inside the Opponent’s Head with OODA 73</p> <p>A New Approach to Strategic Planning 74</p> <p>Traditional Strategic Planning versus SPX 75</p> <p><b>Chapter 5 Detecting Early Signals 79</b></p> <p>If It is Obvious to Everyone, It Has No Value 80</p> <p>Research and Observation 83</p> <p>Removing Barriers to Information Flow 84</p> <p>Access is the Name of the Game 86</p> <p>Dealing with Uncertainty 87</p> <p>Conducting Research 88</p> <p>Predictive Analytics 90</p> <p>Timing Analysis 92</p> <p><b>Chapter 6 Learning from Experiments 95</b></p> <p>Divergence and Convergence 96</p> <p>Starting with Divergence 97</p> <p>Moving into Convergence 99</p> <p>Short Experiments 101</p> <p>Risks and Opportunities Identification 104</p> <p>Embracing Chaos and Bad News 105</p> <p><b>Chapter 7 Capabilities – The Essential Fuel to Ride the Exponential Curve 107</b></p> <p>Determine Capabilities 108</p> <p>People 109</p> <p>Process 112</p> <p>Technology 115</p> <p>Market 116</p> <p>Capital 119</p> <p>Develop Risk–Opportunity–Capability Map 120</p> <p>Develop Priority List 122</p> <p><b>Chapter 8 Feedback-Based Strategic Decisions 125</b></p> <p>Determine Scale and Scope 127</p> <p>Explore Highest Priorities 130</p> <p>Gather Data and Feedback 132</p> <p>Scale or Terminate Initiatives 134</p> <p><b>Chapter 9 Leading a Culture of Change 137</b></p> <p>Exploration versus Exploitation – the Innovator’s Dilemma 139</p> <p>Amplifying Flow Through the Organization 141</p> <p>Mobilizing the Organization Through an Inflection Point 142</p> <p>Knowing When to Quit 143</p> <p>Executive Engagement 145</p> <p>Culture and Behaviors 147</p> <p>Judgment 148</p> <p>Curiosity 148</p> <p>Innovation 148</p> <p>Integrity 149</p> <p><b>Section Three 151</b></p> <p><b>Chapter 10 The Exponential Human – Social and Ethical Challenges in a Chaotic World 153</b></p> <p>The Workless Society 154</p> <p>Education Reinvented 156</p> <p>Global Synchronous Communications 159</p> <p>New Ethics for a New Era 161</p> <p>For My Children 163</p> <p>A Discussion About The Use of The Term Exponential 165</p> <p>Notes and References 167</p> <p>Index 175</p>

<p><b>DAVID ESPINDOLA</b> is a Partner at Intercepting Horizons and an Advisory Board member of the Technological Leadership Institute at the University of Minnesota. As a former Chief Information Officer and consulting leader, he has developed global technology strategies and successfully implemented business transformation programs.</p> <p><b>MICHAEL W. WRIGHT</b> is a Partner of Intercepting Horizons and the author of the acclaimed <i>New Business Normal</i>, a former C-suite global high-tech executive at scale and an active board member. He is a University of Minnesota Sr. Fellow, Chairman Emeritus of the Advisory Board for the UMN Technological Leadership Institute, and formerly an adjunct professor at Carlson School of Management where he taught strategic leadership.

<p><b>Praise for <i>The Exponential Era</i></b></p> <p>"<i>The Exponential Era</i> turns strategic planning from a stagnant limited application exercise to an active thoughtful process that can yield benefits for all companies and executives. Every company leader can find a gem in <i>The Exponential Era</i> to apply to their business big or small.”<BR><b>—Michael Splinter,</b> Chairman of the Board, NASDAQ and Retired Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Applied Materials <p>“I count this among the very best business books I have read. The authors have managed to synthesize a vast array of thinking and methodologies and deployed them in a practical and easily understood planning process (SPX) that addresses today’s exponential pace of change."<BR><b>—James B. Stake,</b> former Executive Vice President, Enterprise Services, 3M Company and Chairman, Ativa Medical Corporation <p>"<i>The Exponential Era</i> is an essential read for our times."<BR><b>—John Puckett,</b> Owner of Punch Pizza and Co-founder of Caribou Coffee <p>"<i>The Exponential Era</i> does a great job of not only describing exponential technologies, but how they likely converge to transform our world."<BR><b>—Frank Diana,</b> Managing Partner, Futurist, TATA Consultancy Services <p>"<i>The Exponential Era</i> is a must-read for business leaders, entrepreneurs, and virtually anyone navigating our highly complex and rapidly changing world."<BR><b>—General (Ret. 4 Star) Joseph L. Votel,</b> President and CEO, Business Executives for National Security (BENS)

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